NBA Trade Idea Analysis: DeMarcus Cousins To The Washington Wizards
The key to success in the basketball is not overly complicated. More often than not, the team with the better players will be victorious.
Sure, there will be examples of masterful coaching performances (think Rick Carlisle and the 2011 Mavericks) and heartwarming stories of teamwork triumphing over stardom (you remember those immortal 2004 Pistons). But history has long told us that the NBA is predicated on winning with talent.
It’s the sole reason why tanking exists as a problem in the NBA and not in other leagues. One player can change the course of a franchise and that effect can take place immediately. There still is an element of uncertainty. Instead of LeBron James, the result can be Anthony Bennett. But in a draft that only includes 60 total players selected and a scouting pool that is much smaller than that entering the NFL or the MLB, player evaluation is a more exact science.
For those who don’t or can’t draft those top tier players, the next best hope is to land one via trade or free agency. Neither is especially likely, given the length of time that the drafting team controls its player, the financial incentives to stay put, and the likelihood of the destination city being less than desirable.
But every once in a while, there will be a perfect storm of an unhappy star, a dysfunctional franchise, and the perfect trade partner. We call this latest installment the ‘DeMarcus Cousins Special’.
Cousins isn’t on the open market by any means this summer.
He’s locked up till 2018 on a very favorable contract (which I’ll get to in a second) and although there have been whispers that Sacramento will entertain offers for their star big man, it seems likely that he’ll continue calling Sleep Train Arena home for the foreseeable future.
Enter the Washington Wizards.
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After another uplifting but ultimately underwhelming postseason finish, the Washington Wizards are a team allegedly on the rise but not really.
Only 3 players on the roster are of youth and will improve.
The remaining pieces are either in full-fledged decline, not expected to be in uniform in October, or have plateaued to a constant state of solidity.
Washington is dangerously close to approaching no-man’s land, not fit for championship contention but still strong enough to avoid bottoming out with another coveted lottery pick.
They have a superstar in John Wall, a potential star in Bradley Beal, and very good role players in Otto Porter and Marcin Gortat.
Therein lies the key point though; one alpha. Stars in this league want to play with other stars. LeBron didn’t come back to hardscrabble Northeast Ohio just to bring a ring home for his community.
He did it because Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love were waiting in the wings. Dwight Howard left the money, the fame, and Kobe’s deteriorating game to join James Harden. Chris Paul carefully navigated his way to the locker rooms of the Staples Center, ultimately landing with Blake Griffin.
John Wall isn’t quite yet in that class to command attention all by his lonesome. But him and the 2nd Team All-NBA Center? Well now you’re talking. And a certain someone in Oklahoma City may be listening.
The Proposal
Washington sends: Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Nene, 2015 1st round pick
Sacramento sends: DeMarcus Cousins, Ben McLemore
The Financials
Washington would be acquiring $17.8 million while sending Sacramento $21.9 million (not counting the 1st rounder. Once the draft is completed, the selected player will incur a cap hold). Because both teams are above the cap, the salaries have to be within 125% of each other, which this trade achieves.
Why It Makes Sense For The Wizards
Look, Bradley Beal is a really nice young player. So is Otto Porter. Both are just 22-years-old and have a bright future ahead. But we went through this once in 2012 when Ernie Grunfeld balked at acquiring James Harden.
Now, The Beard is a 2-time 1st team All-NBA performer and the MVP runner-up and Big Panda struggles to crack league average PER in an 82 game season. I love Beal’s game (or should I say what it can be), but would I willing to pay him $80-90 million for that love? Probably not at this moment.
Instead, Door #2 offers me another bonafide star next to Wall, an absolute behemoth down low who can rip off 25-15 games at a level only surpassed by Anthony Davis.
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In a league of stars, having 2 guaranteed ones is better than one plus a maybe.
Cousins played hard for Mike Malone and will do the same for his best friend and college teammate at Kentucky.
And there’s also the consolation prize of getting a shooting guard who can provide 75% of Beal’s production at 50% of the cost.
Speaking of Beal’s presumably upcoming max contract, DeMarcus Cousins was locked up under the 2015 salary cap (just like Wall) so he’ll only make $47 million over the next 3 years.
Given the substantial cap increase over the next two seasons, this deal will be the steal of the century (non-Steph Curry Division) when it’s all said and done. And oh yeah, he’s only 24. Not really an old-timer.
It hurts to lose Porter, a guy who clearly has the makings of a more versatile Trevor Ariza or Tayshaun Prince. The Wizards would sacrifice significant wing depth by making this trade, which was already the weakest point of the team this season. But it’s a lot easier to fill out a roster than it is to find who will lead it. Look no further than the Cavs-Celtics 1st round matchup as evidence of that theory.
Pairing Wall with Cousins will show teams that Washington has a true championship foundation and what has long been an underdog free agent destination could become the favorite.
Why It Makes Sense For The Kings
Well, it doesn’t really.
DeMarcus Cousins has the talent to become a top-5 player in the NBA and he’s probably pretty close already. Luckily for the league, Vivek Ranadive is still trying to put together his Concerto #4 in G-Minor which requires a run-and-gun roster to excite crowds and create easier cherry picking opportunities. George Karl also favors that approach but the style is tough to execute when Cousins is the focal point of the offense.
The trade is also betting on Beal becoming the star he’s capable of based on the last two years of playoff evidence. Porter will provide versatility and defense on the wings with Rudy Gay transitioning into a full-time power forward.
They can use their own 1st round pick on a rim protector like Willie Cauley-Stein and nab their point guard of the future at #19 (Jerian Grant, Tyus Jones). Nene would reunite with Andre Miller and serve as the veteran presence in the locker room until his massive contract came off the books next year, opening up max level cap room in the sacred 2016 summer.
Wait, this doesn’t sound so bad. Why am I solving all of their problems??
The Verdict
This feels like a no-brainer for Washington.
DeMarcus Cousins might have a well-deserved reputation for his bad attitude and his numbers are definitely inflated by playing for such a porous team. But there’s no denying his talent or production and with a point guard like John Wall feeding him the ball the sky is seriously the limit.
Washington would have to rebuild the roster a bit, namely by getting rid of Marcin Gortat who could no longer player next to Cousins (and would clog the 2016 flexibility).
He is still owed $50 million after this season but there will be suitors for a skilled center if the right package is involved (i.e. Pelicans if they can’t retain Asik, Knicks if they strike out on Gasol/Aldridge/Monroe, or even the Lakers if they opt for D’angelo Russell over Jahlil Okafor as some have suggested).
They’d also have to waive Martell Webster via the stretch provision to create room to acquire more functional bodies.
Grunfeld would still be equipped with the MLE and BAE to add pieces and by a stroke of luck may even stumble into something of value in the 2nd round of the draft.
In reality, this may be a pipe dream that will go nowhere. Or Washington would have to sweeten the pot by adding more picks or absorbing a bad contract or two (either Jason Thompson or Carl Landry does the trick).
But of all the teams looking to acquire DeMarcus Cousins, the Wizards have a pretty competitive package. It’ll be up to Vlade Divac to part ways with his young star, but if he chooses that route, Washington should be first in line.