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Washington Wizards: 5 Factors That Can Help the Wizards Become a Contender

By Osman Baig

Oct 31, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) talks with Wizards guard Bradley Beal (3) against the New York Knicks in the second quarter at Verizon Center. The Knicks won 117-110. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 31, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) talks with Wizards guard Bradley Beal (3) against the New York Knicks in the second quarter at Verizon Center. The Knicks won 117-110. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Washington Wizards must improve on these five factors before they become a contender in the NBA

Two years ago, coming off a successful playoff debut for the John Wall and Bradley Beal led Washington Wizards, there was good reason to feel optimistic about the future of the organization.

After missing the playoffs last season, that optimism has been buried by losing.

The Eastern Conference has been shaken up this summer, but the Wizards can still take steps to improve that go beyond just adding talent through trades and free agency.

Five factors, in particular, could be the key for Washington to make a legitimate run.

The Guards

John Wall is the leader of the franchise and no leap will occur unless he maximizes his full potential.

You may say that he is what he is: a good player with fundamental inefficiencies. But, I disagree.

Wall has proven in spurts that talent is not the issue – efficiency is.

He has carried this team and played some of his best individual basketball when the Washington Wizards were a skeleton crew.

The two best stretches of his career came at the conclusion of the 2012-13 season and December ’15 when he was named Eastern Conference Player of the month.

End of season 2013 (21 games) – 24.3 ppg, 8.3 apg, 5.0 rpg, 46.6% FG, 79.2% FT, 8.7 FTA, 37% 3-Point

December 2015 (16 games) – 22.6 ppg, 11.7 apg, 4.8 rpg, 46% FG, 83.6% FT, 4.6 FTA, 37.7% 3 Point

Wall didn’t have the benefit of a great supporting cast during these stretches.

Beal, Nene, and Otto Porter all missed time, but Wall put a starting lineup that included the likes of Garrett Temple, Martell Webster, Jared Dudley, and a raw Kelly Oubre Jr on his back.

Wall needs to understand that it was the aggression he approached the game with during those stretches that resulted in the best sustained play of his career.

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The next step is for Wall to figure out how to maintain that aggressiveness when he’s sharing the court with a healthy supporting cast, specifically Beal.

This also ties into the notion of Wall as a “pass first” point guard.

I don’t think this accurately captures the type of player Wall is nor could be.

When he scores, it doesn’t come at the expense of his assist numbers.

In the 2015-1,  season Wall scored 20 or more points on 35 occasions.

In those 35 games, he averaged 10.8 assists to go along with his 25.8 points per game scoring average (on 19.9 shots per game).

In the 42 games he scored less than 20 points, he averaged 9.8 assists to go along with this 15 points per game average (on 15.6 shots per game).

Being a less aggressive scoring threat didn’t enhance his assist numbers.

In fact, I’d argue that the team’s lack of difference making talent means that Wall must be engaged as a scorer to create the scoring opportunities his teammates need to be successful.

Beal, first of all, needs to stay healthy.

If he can’t stay healthy, he won’t be able to establish a rhythm with the lineup around him. Inconsistency in terms of lineup availability and minutes restrictions have taken away Beal’s ability to grow into the role we assumed he was on the cusp of after his postseason performances.

Beal averaged 23.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.6 assists in the 2015 playoffs.

Washington needs that player to show up more often in the regular season and needs that player to play well alongside Wall. This past season, Beal’s spotty availability often left him seeming out of sync with Wall and his teammates as he wasn’t able to integrate in the lineup.

Furthermore, Beal has to simply improve.

That includes, but it not limited to, getting to the free throw line and knocking them down when he’s there, finding the balance between shooter and aspiring playmaker, and becoming the go-to closer this team desperately needs.

Washington needs the backcourt to thrive as individuals but also as a duo.

Per NBA.com, Wall and Beal had an Offensive Rating of 105.1 and a Net Rating of 0.9 this past season.

This was a far cry from their 7.7 Net Rating in the 2014-15 season.

Even then, there’s still an expectation for more on the offensive end from the duo as their 2014-15 Net Rating was more attributable to defensive play rather than their 105.2 Offensive Rating.

For comparison’s sake, here is how other top backcourts performed in terms of Offensive and Net Rating this past season.

Each of the five backcourts referenced made the postseason. Their average Offensive Rating was 111.4 and the average Net Rating was 8.9.

Can Wall and Beal be as effective as the aforementioned backcourts?

That’s difficult to say, especially at the offensive end, but in the 2015 NBA playoffs they posted an Offensive Rating of 107.2 and a Net Rating of 5.7.

For the Washington Wizards to make the leap back to contender status they have to stop talking about how good of a backcourt they can be and actually play like it.

Defending Home Court

2015-2016: 22-19

2014-2015: 29-12

2013-2014: 22-19

The Washington Wizards have not protected home court.

In two of the last three seasons, the Wizards’ play at Verizon Center has been on par with the 2012-13 season where they also went 22-19.

The difference in that season is that Washington was a 29-win team and Wall missed the first 29 games of the season.

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Their performance these past three seasons at home just hasn’t been good enough to reach contender status.

From 2014-2016, the teams that have represented the East in the Conference Finals have gone on average 33-8 at home with no Conference Finals representative winning fewer than 31 home games.

Washington has averaged 24.3 homes wins per season over that span.

Their average net differential over these three seasons is 0.5, which explains why Washington struggles to create separation from opponents at home and why they are often in games that are decided in the final minute.

That is not the formula to consistent success at home.

Coaching

Randy Wittman did some things well in Washington, in particular bringing stability to the organization at a time when it was needed. And, of course, Playoff Randy.

The time for change was long overdue, however, and Coach Wittman was relieved of his duties immediately following the season ending loss to the Atlanta Hawks.

Enter Scott Brooks.

Brooks comes in with a solid resume and track record of developing talent.

He often gets discredited for his work in Oklahoma City because of the star power they had, but it would be revisionist history to think that Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, James Harden, Reggie Jackson, Thabo Sefolosha, and Steven Adams came into the NBA as surefire stars or rotational players.

Development and maximizing talent is one of the most difficult things for a coach to do and Brooks excelled at that area in Oklahoma City, taking the second youngest roster in NBA history to the Finals.

Washington is a team that has struggled with player development.

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Wall, a three-time All-Star, still has redundant inefficiencies in his game that have held him from making the final leap from good to great.

Beal has battled injuries and inconsistency throughout his career.

Porter, in his third NBA season, finally earned a starting role after looking overmatched and ignored by Wittman in his first two seasons.

Kelly Oubre Jr. unfortunately followed in Otto Porter’s shoes, not necessarily looking as over matched as Otto Porter did early, but similarly ignored.

Washington has also seen a lot of draft picks come and go since the 2010 draft.

Some are no longer in the NBA, but others like Trevor Booker and Shelvin Mack, have improved since leaving Washington.

This pattern has become an increasing nuisance as the void they left has required multiple investments by this organization.

The Washington Wizards are once again comprised of a young roster and what they do in the foreseeable future will largely be dependent on what Brooks can get out of the young core.

The veteran core of Marcin Gortat, Ian Mahinmi, and Jason Smith largely are what they are.

The incumbent core plus new additions including Tomas Satoransky, Trey Burke, Andrew Nicholson, and last year’s trade deadline acquisition, Markieff Morris, have to be successfully integrated into the lineup and become solid contributors sooner rather than later.

By the end of this season, we may very well have a better idea if Brooks’ track record for player development was due in part to him or if it was the talent he was given to work with.

X-Factor

All teams need some luck and Washington is no different.

Toronto had a large contribution from Bismack Biyombo which helped trigger their Conference Finals run.

Washington is still searching for their x-factor.

Oubre, last year’s first round selection, may be the best candidate to assume that role.

His length and athleticism can make him disruptive defensively and he showed flashes of 3-and-D play when he received an opportunity to contribute.

Satoransky is the ultimate unknown.

When we last saw him in the 2012 Las Vegas Summer League, Satoransky was a 20-year-old who showed basketball I.Q. but wasn’t ready physically nor skill wise.

After four years of professional basketball in Europe, what kind of player will we see and how bumpy will the transition be?

Nicholson is also an intriguing talent. 

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The 19th overall selection in the 2012 NBA Draft, never seemed to get an opportunity in Orlando.

He does bring shooting from the four position and perimeter play that could be capitalized on by a shot creating point guard like Wall.

Burke, the 9th overall selection in the 2013 NBA Draft, had a disappointing tenure in Utah.

While he posts a career average of 12.1 points and 4.2 assists, he grew out of favor in Utah and found himself playing fewer and fewer minutes as the season came to an end, losing time to ex-Wizards guard Mack.

Burke has struggled in particular with shooting the basketball with a career 38.4 field goal percentage. His size may play a factor in this as he’s had difficulties finishing at the rim in the NBA.

Each of these players has the ability to be an x-factor.

Unfortunately, any or all of these players can just as easily struggle in Washington as they have elsewhere or need more time to develop, which may be the case for the 20-year-old Oubre and rookie Satoransky.

And One

Free throw attempts per game

  • Toronto – 26.7
  • Cleveland – 21.7
  • Oklahoma City – 25.2
  • Golden State – 21.8

The Washington Wizards ranked 20th in the NBA in free throw attempts per game last season, averaging 22.5 per game.

This actually had them slightly ahead of Golden State and Cleveland, who averaged 21.8 and 21.7 free throw attempts per game respectively.

The problem when reconciling that with Washington is that Golden State and Cleveland were numbers one and two in the NBA in 3-point field goals made per game, whereas Washington was 13th.

The Raptors (8.6) and Thunder (8.3) were in-line with Washington in terms 3-point field goals made, but as noted above, made it to the free throw line more regularly than Washington.

Compounding the issue is that Washington has lost two of their top 3-point shooters in terms of percentage in Dudley and Gary Neal.

Without having clearly replaced either with established NBA talent, it’s difficult to project Washington becoming a more dangerous 3-point shooting team than last year.

Washington has to make an effort to get to the free throw line more often and improve their 73 percent shooting – 25th in the league – when they get there.

For a team that struggles executing down the stretch, getting those free points from the charity stripe are vital towards improving their offensive efficiency.

Next: Catching Up With Drew Hanlen, Bradley Beal's Trainer

Improving the listed factors will help the Washington Wizards jump back into the playoffs, but they need to turn them into strengths before they become a legitimate contender.

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