March 16, 2013; Las Vegas, NV, USA; UCLA Bruins guard/forward Shabazz Muhammad (15) reacts against the Oregon Ducks during the second half of the championship game of the Pac 12 tournament at the MGM Grand Garden Arena. Oregon defeated UCLA 78-69. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

With another marvelous NCAA tournament in the books, it’s time to shift our attention to the draft and evaluate prospects that could be suiting up for the Wizards next season.

Shabazz Muhammad, Freshman, SF, UCLA

32 games: 30.8MPG, 17.9PPG, 5.2RPG, 0.8APG, 0.7SPG, 44%FG, 38% 3FG

2012-13 season: Shabazz’s roller coaster season begun far before he stepped on UCLA hardwood. He suffered a right shoulder injury during a Bruins practice all the while being a victim to a highly publicized case by the NCAA that resulted in a 3 game suspension to start the season. Conditioning proved to be an issue with Muhammad once he was deemed eligible by the NCAA, as he struggled to shake off the rust and was consistently getting beat off the dribble on defense. Unfortunately, that rust never wore off and UCLA- featuring three top-20 recruits was blown out of the NCAA tournament with a round of 64 upset at the hands of 11^th ranked Minnesota.

Yet, this doesn’t begin to tell the story of Shabazz Muhammad. During the wee hours leading up to the tipoff of March Madness, the LA Times dropped a bombshell on the Bruins star exposing him and his family of lying about his age in order to gain a physical and mental advantage over younger, lesser developed players during his amateur career. This may be viewed as just a menial setback had Shabazz lived up to his reputation in college, however his struggles paired with being dubbed as a prospect with “a nonstop motor that bullies defenders” manifested and intensified an already perplexing draft prospect.

Age isn’t the be-all and end- all of Shabazz Muhammad’s draft status. He was on the fast track to the NBA since birth due to the guidance of his father, Ron Holmes. He was afforded the luxury of top notch trainers, the best AAU teams, and one of the best high school programs in the nation. During the summers, his father would create teams in the popular summer circuit that tailored to his boy’s strengths. He turned down offers from higher profile programs such as Duke and Kentucky in order to join Coach Ben Howland, who he knew would cater to his boy, and a team that featured two highly unselfish ball handlers and big men that could spread the floor.

Now, the pampered prodigy is set to enter the draft process where he’ll meet with several league executives and will have to answer a lot of pressing questions.

Strengths: Muhammad can score the ball in a multitude of ways, preferring mostly to get the ball out on the break where he’s able to overpower defenders (though, those opportunities came at a premium) or filling the lane and spotting up in the corner. In halfcourt sets, he’s proficient when catching the ball in stride off screens and squaring up to the basket- though he does tend to come wide off them which impairs him from creating separation from his defender and forces the offense to run him off multiple screens. He’s a menace once he gets into the lane, using his body to his advantage and displays a soft touch around the basket.

Weaknesses: While Muhammad showed tremendous growth as a shooter both in spot up situations and off screens, the rest of his offense leaves a lot to be desired. His average ball handling skills and shortcomings going right with the ball places a huge burden on his isolation skills, which is a huge red flag for someone labeled as a “great scorer.” Defenses figured out early on once they stopped Muhammad going left, he’s relegated to resetting the offense or taking a contested jumper, which will be problematic for anyone at the next level with his limited athleticism.

His defense, particularly on ball was heavily targeted this season due to Shabazz’s poor conditioning and instincts. He’s not very quick moving laterally, and tends to overplay one side of the ball handler which puts him in an awful position once he’s hit with a ball fake or hesitation dribble. Off-ball he does a good job playing the passing lanes, lock and trailing his man, and using his strength to fight over screens. He is susceptible to ball watching, and generally has a hard time figuring out when to dig down on big men posting up and when to stay home on perimeter shooters.

His rebounding totals look impressive on paper, but diminish in substance once you take a look at the big men he played with. He’s caught leaking out too early and seems more intent on anticipating a missed shot rather than boxing out his man.

Pro potential/Wizards fit: Rookies often time struggle with adjusting to the NBA life, especially as it pertains to diet and year round training. This won’t be the case for Shabazz, who has been exposed to this regimen for years. He’s played in big games, played varsity basketball at a top ranked high school program as a freshman, and has the drive to become great (if not to simply expand a brand he’s been steadily evolving  since he was 16 years young).

Muhammad’s fame at an early age is somewhat of a double edged sword. It helped him get noticed and propelled him to a top university with loads of opportunities to showcase his talents to NBA executives. However, it also exposed the world to his learning curve and how he’s moved along since his high school days. Then you start to compare him to guys less fortunate such as Ben McLemore who has struggled with poverty his entire life and has slowly adapted to the public eye, and you begin to see why he disappeared in games, or struggled to take command of the Jayhawks offense. He was a late bloomer in high school, redshirted his freshman year at Kansas, and improved his game so much that he’s considered a unanimous lock as a top 5 pick. An NBA regimen, all the luxuries that Shabazz was afforded earlier, will be bestowed onto McLemore, who will take his game to even higher levels.

The challenge is gauging just how much potential remains untapped as Muhammad leaves Westwood for greener pastures. He once was the physical freak that would bully you up and down the floor, but his peers are gradually catching up to that. His motor and physical dominance proved to be an effective veil for his rudimentary ball handling and defensive technique, but that no longer can stay concealed at the next level. He really hasn’t made the big strides that you see top draft picks generally making at his age, which begs the question, just how close to his ceiling are we?

This isn’t an investment worth making if you’re Ernie Grunfeld. This team struggled to score the ball in 2013, but similar to the Rudy Gay debate back at the NBA trade deadline, it is in no rush to shore up those weaknesses with an inefficient, one way player. You don’t select a player simply because he fills a hole on your depth chart.

Mar 28, 2013; Washington, D.C., USA; Indiana Hoosiers forward Cody Zeller (40) walks off the court after losing to the Syracuse Orange 61-50 in the semifinals of the East regional of the 2013 NCAA tournament at the Verizon Center. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

With another marvelous NCAA tournament in the books, it’s time to shift our attention to the draft and evaluate prospects that could be suiting up for the Wizards next season.

Cody Zeller, Sophomore, PF/C, Indiana

36 games: 29.5MPG, 16.5PPG, 8.1RPG, 1.3APG, 1.3BPG, 56%FG, 76%FT

2012-13 season: Cody Zeller made the calculated decision to come back to school following an outstanding freshman season at Indiana where he was awarded the Big Ten Freshman of the Year award and led the Hoosiers to a 15 win turnaround from the previous year. Already being projected a top ten pick in the 2012 draft; Zeller was touted as an advanced low post threat with a developing midrange game and an uncanny ability to run the court well. It was up to him to work on his jumper, improve on defense, and learn to box out more physical bigs down low.

Now with the spotlight shining directly on him, Zeller was tasked with avoiding the sophomore slump and continuing his brilliance at Assembly Hall. Inevitably, the nitpicking emanated and questions with his physical stature and lack of toughness became mainstream among the viewing audience.  Soon enough, pundits became fastened to the theory that Zeller will be nothing more than a good college player that’s too “soft” for the pros. Nevertheless, despite the endless rave about Zeller’s tumbling draft stock, he managed to develop the aforementioned flaws that haunted him as a freshman.

Strengths: Zeller’s highly advanced offensive game has kept scouts intrigued about the young big man at the next level. His footwork and soft touch around the basket makes for a passable back to the basket player considering his frame, and his face-up game- the ability to pop out or come off a ball screen and hit the 16 footer has virtually kept him in the lottery. His general alacrity at finding shooters and cutters off the dribble is unparalleled at his size in college basketball, and he employs that skill well as he runs the floor and fills his lane in transition. After struggling for much of his freshman season on the defensive end, Cody has polished his pick and roll coverage, he’s now comfortable switching out onto guards along the perimeter, does a nice job hedging and recovering on high pick and rolls, and is quicker to help and rotate in the post, though his shortcomings as a shot blocker has hampered this to a large extent.

Weaknesses: This discussion starts and ends with finishing at the rim. After watching film and looking up his abnormally short wingspan (6’8 according to DraftExpress), it’s very easy to assume he will have his problems against lengthier defenders in the NBA. His 2-7FG effort against Michigan State, 2-9FG effort against Minnesota, 4-10FG effort against Wisconsin, and his final two tourney games against Temple and Syracuse all corroborate the concerns many have. Whether it’s by design or not, Zeller has a tendency to flash to the high post, fake, and drive right into the body of his defender, compromising any leverage he would have had, had he gone straight up with the ball. He also tends to get lower as he makes his move to the hoop, and gradually begins to gather himself as he goes up for the shot. These vices, while significant, are repercussions of his short wingspan more than anything else.

On the defensive end, Zeller has to do a better job pushing his man off the block and using his lower body to absorb contact so that he’s not getting backed down as easily. This would also show up in his rebounding totals, which really didn’t show a huge improvement from year 1 to year 2 (going from a 16.8DRB% to 18.8DRB% per basketball reference).

Pro potential/Wizards fit: It’s so easy to take a prospect’s stats and college career for face value and judge whether he’s fit for the NBA or not. The draft process is such an intricate inclusion of fit and talent level, as so eloquently ascertained by SBNation’s Paul Flannery in this piece on Ryan McDonough and the Celtics brain trust. McDonough, who is applauded for drafting Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley, and Jared Sullinger, fancied the idea that these extremely talented individuals were being misunderstood and misused in college, and the heat that they received from draft pundits were out of place. Rather than castigating their struggles, he took an outside of the box approach and questioned the system, and whether these kids were given a fair chance to succeed in college. This isn’t to belittle college coaches, they strategize and incorporate players to fit their system and get the best out of their team, rather than the other way around.

The problem with Cody Zeller at Indiana was that he was forced to play center, despite the strengths and weaknesses previously outlined. Christian Watford was the stretch 4, was in his 4^th year, and earned the right to be a starter under Tom Crean. There was no other inside presence on the roster, so Zeller was asked to deviate away from his bread and butter for the betterment of the team. Thus, the awkward drives to the basket, the reluctance to shoot jumpers, and the accentuation of his poor shot blocking and help defense. These shortcomings would have been concealed had he played power forward, and was paired with better personnel at the center position.

In a lot of ways, Zeller’s skill-set draws many parallels to Nene, so what better way to bring him along than under the tutelage of the Big Brazilian for the next two years? His skill-set fits the direction of this team tremendously, and he has a chance to make an immediate impact as a rotational big. This organization has failed at developing a big man more times than I can remember, but they have never seen one as skilled as Cody Zeller.

What if I told you John Wall will someday go back to being a bad jump shooter? Would you believe me? Would say, “Yeah, no sh*t”? Would you be worried? It might not even matter for his game.

John Wall has found the magical touch on long-range twos over the last two weeks – his percentage from 16 to 23 feet is all the way up to 38.1% , good for 58th in the league among qualifying players (150 or more attempts). 38% is mediocre, but the 43.6% he’s hitting in the month of March is good for a much better 28th. With his incredible increase in jump shooting prowess has come an incredible increase in just about every other type of prowess. This much is clear – John Wall is a fantastic player when he is draining over 40% of his jumpers. Wall is finishing better at the rim, getting to the line more often, and turning the ball over less. Many would say this improvement all starts with the jump shot. While I would tend to disagree that his jumper is his biggest problem (I’ve been saying for awhile his handle is, or was, his biggest problem), it certainly was a problem.

3/27 – John Wall Shot chart

Wall continued taking jumpers with confidence last night but came up short time and time again. We can blame a one of twelve effort on jumpers on a number of things, but what if it was the beginning of Wall’s return to being the worst jump shooter in the league? I fully expect Wall to revert to being a bad jump shooter, but does that mean he will revert to being a mediocre player?

The alarming part of the Wall-Jumper-Experience was that he relied on the jump shot so much – from the beginning of this incredible run up until the 47 point explosion, he was averaging near his career free throws attempted per game, but with over 25% of them coming in one game against the Cavaliers. Special attention should be paid to Wall’s ability to get in the paint, because that should be his bread and butter, and it hasn’t been easy for him this year. The jumper was a crutch, but it won’t always be.

And it doesn’t have to be. His handle is tighter and his control of the game better. Wall’s inability to hang on to the ball earlier in the year appears to be a product of rust more than anything else. The most exciting part of this streak of play is that he has shown clear improvement in skills a pass-first point guard needs; the most exciting part of this streak is that if and when his shot ends up falling closer to 35% of the time than 45% of the time, he is still an improved player.