For the first time in three years, the Washington Wizards will be playing meaningful basketball games after the regular season is. It’s been an improbable run for a team whose postseason ambitions seemed more like a pipedream after the Chicago Bulls loaded up at the trade deadline. On April 1, the Wizards were 12th in the East. Now, they are officially play-in bound.
The last time the Wizards made a postseason run, it was a short one. They didn’t make it past the first round, as Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, and the Toronto Raptors made quick work of the Wizards and sent Bradley Beal and company packing after six games. This season, the Wizards would like to see their postseason dreams last a little longer. But before they technically start their first playoff series since 2018, they’ll need to make it out of the play-in tournament. The play-in “series” are all best of one. Anything can happen, for better or worse.
No matter who the Washington Wizards face in the play-in tournament, there is a path to victory.
With only one game left on the schedule, the Wizards’ final ranking in the standings is still anyone’s guess. They could finish anywhere between eighth and tenth. However, their potential opponents are all set.
The four play-in teams for the Eastern Conference will be the Boston Celtics, Charlotte Hornets, Indiana Pacers, and Washington Wizards. Who will be playing who in the first and second rounds of the play-in is still to be determined. No matter who the Wizards find themselves matched up against, though, there’s at least one weakness that the Wizards can exploit.
One weakness the Washington Wizards can exploit against each play-in team…
Washington Wizards vs. Indiana Pacers
Weakness the Wizards can exploit: Weak interior
The Wizards are already one of the most productive teams in the paint, ranking fifth in points in the paint per game (52.8). But they could have a banner night against the Pacers if the two teams matchup in a play-in game.
The Pacers are the worst team in the NBA at protecting the paint, and give up an NBA-worst 53.9 points in the paint per game as of May 15. To make matters worse, the Pacers also give up more second-chance points than any other team in the NBA, 15.3 per game.
If there’s one thing the Wizards need to do if they face Indiana in the play-in tournament, it’s feed Daniel Gafford. Gafford has been great against the Pacers this season, averaging 10.6 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks in just under 16 minutes per game. Gafford has efficiently feasted on the Pacers’ interior, missing just four of the 16 shots he’s taken against them this season as a member of the Wizards. And, like most of Gafford’s attempts, these were all around the rim.
Gafford has sometimes struggled to get consistent minutes with the Wizards, even in games when he’s obviously the best center on the court. The Wizards can’t afford to sit him for no reason if (and when) he’s making plays vs. the Pacers.
Gafford is the only Wizards big man that has averaged double figures vs. the Pacers this season, but he’s not the only Wizard that can take advantage of a frontcourt hemorrhaging points and offensive rebounds. Westbrook and Beal can both break down defenses and penetrate the paint against the best of them. And Westbrook leads the NBA in offensive rebounds per game among guards (1.7 per).
The Pacers’ weak interior is something the Wizards must exploit if these two teams match up in the play-in tournament.
Washington Wizards vs. Charlotte Hornets
Weakness the Wizards can exploit: Turnovers
It’s obvious that LaMelo Ball, the rookie phenom running the Hornets’ offense, is a magician with the basketball. In his first NBA season, he’s already amassed an impressive catalog of highlight-reel assists. Regardless, the Hornets have trouble taking care of the ball. They rank 26th in the NBA in turnover’s per game (15.0 per) despite running at a pace that ranks in the bottom half of the NBA. In pace-adjusted rankings, they actually fare a bit better, though. Their turnover percentage of 13.4 ranks 25th in the NBA. Better, but still bad.
The Wizards aren’t great at holding onto the ball, either. Their turnover per game and turnover percentage marks both rank in the bottom half of the NBA; 20th and 15th, respectively. And Russell Westbrook leads the NBA in turnovers per game. However, the Wizards make their opponents pay for their mistake like few other teams in the NBA do.
The Wizards rank sixth in points off turnovers (18.0), and lead the NBA in transition points per game (25.1). The Wizards like to get out and run, as evidenced by their league-leading pace, and if the Hornets can help them pick up steam by coughing the ball up, the Wizards will happily make them pay and turn this game into a track meet.
The Hornets’ tendency to give the ball away is something the Wizards must exploit if these two teams match up in the play-in tournament.
Washington Wizards vs. Boston Celtics
Weakness the Wizards can exploit: Banged up in Boston
Believe it or not, the Boston Celtics might be the most favorable matchup for the Wizards among all the possible play-in matchups. The Wizards have a losing record to the Celtics this season (1-2), but played them pretty well in all three games, losing one game by just one point.
While the Wizards have been playing some of their best basketball over the past month and a half or so, the Celtics have been crumbling a bit (4-9 in their last 13 games) and will be without Jaylen Brown for the entirety of the postseason. That injury, while devastating for Boston, makes the Celtics a little less scary. That sigh of relief you’re hearing is the Wizards relaxing a bit knowing they won’t have to deal with Brown in any possible play-in games. This season in two games vs. the Wizards, Brown averaged 26.0 points and 10.0 rebounds while shooting 50 percent from the floor and 45.5 percent from three.
Brown isn’t the only Celtic that’s less than 100 percent as we near the postseason. Marcus Smart, Robert Williams, and Tristan Thompson have all been sidelined recently with nagging injuries that could affect them — if not completely sideline them — for the play-in games.
The lack of depth and the possible absence of top contributors is something the Wizards must exploit if these two teams match up in the play-in tournament.