The Washington Wizards are heavy underdogs in their first-round playoff matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers, no matter how you slice it. Despite a 17-6 run to close the season, the Wizards finished four games under .500 (34-38). The last team to win a playoff series after finishing the season with a losing record was the 1980-81 Houston Rockets. Meanwhile, the 76ers — with one of the most dominant starting lineups in recent memory — have held firm on the number-one seed in the East for most of the year. Per the Action Network, Washington is given a one-in-seven (+600 odds) chance of winning the series, and only five different times since 1988 has a team with more remote odds ended up victorious. So how can the Washington Wizards pull off the upset?
The Washington Wizards should have one main priority when they take on the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round of the NBA playoffs: stop Joel Embiid.
To be competitive, Washington has to be ready for a grind-it-out, defensive slugfest. Between Danny Green, Ben Simmons, and Matisse Thybulle, the 76ers have plenty of bodies to shadow the Wizards’ star backcourt. One of the main ways to crack this impenetrable Philadelphia defense is through a stretch-big; unfortunately, this applies to none of the Wizard centers. And they won’t beat the 76ers with the three-ball. The Wizards finished second-to-last in three-point attempts for the season – a measly 42 more than the anachronistic San Antonio Spurs. That means Washington has to buckle down and win this series through their defense.
Priority No. 1, 2, and 3 for the Washington Wizards: Slow Down Joel Embiid
The 76ers don’t have an explosive pick-and-roll threat, nor do they have too many movement shooters. Their second-leading scorer (Tobias Harris) has never been an all-star. But they do have Joel Embiid, who may have been the MVP frontrunner before injuring his knee on March 12 in Washington. So the Wizards game-plan needs to be centered around stopping him and forcing the other guys to beat them. Here’s how I would go about this, broken into two parts: Before Joel Embiid receives the ball, and after Joel Embiid receives the ball.
What the Washington Wizards must do before Joel Embiid receives the ball
- Disrupt Philadelphia’s flow
The 76ers’ offense is designed to get Embiid the rock in his sweet spot: the left block. They usually do this by setting cross-screens for him. After that, Simmons will reverse the ball to whichever side Embiid is on and cut to the dunker’s spot, and then the Sixer making the entry pass will clear out to the opposite corner once Joel receives the ball. Washington needs to turn this process (no pun intended) into a chore for the Sixers so that they aren’t just on autopilot. Make them feel you on the off-ball screens (no pointless switching!). Pressure the ball-handler. Deny the catch so ferociously that they have to cut backdoor. Philadelphia may have the size advantage, but they only have one player (Simmons) capable of getting downhill. I’d much rather see those guys go off-script than watch Embiid eat in the post.
- Lock in on the 76ers flex actions
The 76ers often run some sort of “flex” action where Tobias Harris cuts across the lane (trying to seal his man) and then darts up the lane (after slipping the “flex” screen) for a curl if that’s not open. This is why I would start Rui Hachimura on Harris since he has the heft to prevent Harris from burrowing his way into the restricted area. Another play that Doc Rivers likes to run is a wide pin-down for Seth Curry into a dribble hand-off with Embiid. The Wizards must prevent him from getting clean looks off of this, either by top-locking and shading help over or trailing hard and (possibly) a hard show/trap once he receives it. The Wizards’ pointless switching shouldn’t be an option, as Simmons/Harris is usually the one setting the initial pin-down for Curry.
- Know the scouting report
We discussed top-locking Curry, but all of the other Philadelphia starters have unique aspects that must be accounted for. Keep a keen eye on Danny Green, as he will sneak across the baseline into the strong-side, a legendary maneuver known as the “Danny Green cut.” Ben Simmons — a lethal transition weapon — will feint towards a shooter and catch the defender off-balance. Against him, the Wizards must go under all screens, even on the “snug” actions closer to the basket. Since March 25, Simmons is averaging just 11.4 points per game; I’d play the pass with him until further notice. Tobias Harris is much more comfortable attacking to the left than to the right. When Harris posts up, Embiid will chill at the top of the arc, which allows his defender to crash in and disrupt Harris’ shot.
Simplifying this to sentence: Being in rotation is not a bad thing, but being bludgeoned is.
Philadelphia doesn’t have the floor-spacing of other contenders; they are still a clunky, stilted team at its core. Harris makes baffling choices on the catch. The Wizards should be able to scramble and help/recover on the back-side. They must force Curry, Green, and Harris into making decisions against close-outs. Which leads me to my next point…
What the Washington Wizards must do after Joel Embiid receives the ball
Ideally, you’d like to be able to single-cover Embiid and make his life difficult. Unfortunately, none of Alex Len, Daniel Gafford, or Robin Lopez stand a chance, so the Wizards will need to double Embiid every single time. Like with any great player, the Wizards need to keep Joel Embiid guessing. Here are the different looks I’d throw out there:
- Option A: Send help from one pass away
This coverage has had some success throughout the year. The center sits on Embiid’s left side – preventing the baseline drive and the jab-step fadeaway, and the closet defender flies in from Embiid’s right side. There are two different iterations of this: 1) double immediately (from whoever made the entry pass), or 2) double as soon as Embiid starts his move (from the closet shooter).
Both require extreme persistence and attentiveness off-ball. With Ben Simmons stationed in the dunker’s spot, his man should have ample time to sprint out to the corner if necessary. Watch here as New Orleans executes these rotations perfectly.
- Option B: Send help from the dunker’s spot
While Joel Embiid is an improved passer, he still has blind spots. This strategy cuts off his most comfortable outlet. He is, however, proficient at throwing the skip pass to the corner, so I would primarily use this when Matisse Thybulle is in the game.
- Option C: Front the post
This isn’t exactly when Embiid has the ball, but it should be one of Washington’s main coverages (especially when caught up in a mismatch). Make one of the Sixer perimeter players throw a pinpoint pass over the top or perform high/low action. It also forces Embiid to work for everything, which leads to the next point…
The Washington Wizards must exhaust Joel Embiid, both physically and mentally
Joel Embiid is truly a physical specimen. There hasn’t been a center with his movement skills since Hakeem Olajuwon. But if there’s one deficiency in Embiid’s physical profile, it’s his conditioning. The Wizards need to test his improved endurance and play at a breakneck pace like they have all season.
On the offensive end, throw a lot on Embiid’s plate by having the bigs set off-ball screens. Then, when he has the ball, swarm him and don’t allow any easy buckets. And when he’s on the bench, the Wizards must capitalize on the Embiid-less minutes.
Hopefully, the Wizards can come out with a thorough, disciplined game-plan (may be asking too much of Scott Brooks) and embrace the underdog mentality. To have a shot in this series, the Wizards need to take risks and not let Philadelphia’s best player beat them. In other words: if Tobias Harris is making kick-out passes for threes, so be it. If Ben Simmons wants to be aggressive as a scorer, let him. The Wizards’ size deficiency will be a major problem, but perhaps they’ll have the quickness to make up for it. I would start Westbrook (good post-defender, spacy off-ball) on Simmons and Hachimura on Harris. That way, they can switch any two-man action between them. This would also allow Beal to relax on Green while Raul Neto can chase around Curry.
I am predicting a sweep by the Philadelphia 76ers. Even if the Wizards lock in defensively, I expect it to be a complete mess on the other end of the floor. But hey, nothing about the 2020-21 Washington Wizards has been normal, so let’s see what happens next.