The Washington Wizards’ 10th overall selection in the 2022 NBA Draft, Johnny Davis has had a rough year as an NBA player. Following a very productive sophomore season as a collegiate player at Wisconsin, Davis failed to bring the same level of effectiveness to the NBA so far. After spending the majority of the year in the G League last season, Davis is poised to have a bigger role for Washington this year. The Wizards fans are looking forward to what the 21-year-old shooting guard can do to justify the draft pick.
As the Washington Wizards drifted further away from the playoffs last season, Davis’ role started expanding exponentially. After playing exclusively in garbage time and averaging less than five minutes per game in 13 appearances before the All-Star break, Davis took on more playing time post-All-Star break.
In March and April, Davis played in 15 games, averaging 24 minutes per appearance. In these games, he averaged 9.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.7 assists on 39.2% shooting from the field and 24.2% shooting from three.
However, for a rookie, it’s more about the flashes rather than the statistical profile. And Davis showed enough flashes toward the end of the season to give the Wizards fans some hope for the future.
Davis came into the Las Vegas Summer League with some momentum from the regular season. His performance there was a mixed bag. His effort and defensive activity were impressive but his offensive efficiency and shot-making left plenty to be desired.
Fortunately for Johnny Davis, the Washington Wizards are in rebuilding mode for the next few years. The pressure is off, the organization has patience, and Davis has a path to consistent playing time. However, he needs to seize this opportunity and continue his development. These are the three areas he needs to show more to prove he is a rotation-worthy NBA player for a long time.
3-point shooting
Johnny Davis was 24% from three in the NBA and 31% in the G League with the Capital City Go-Go. His volume wasn’t bad at all as he attempted over 3 three-pointers per game in both situations. His college three-point percentage was 32.5 on 157 shots in two seasons. None of these numbers come close to average accuracy.
Considering Davis’ struggles to create good shots for himself and his teammates, he needs to become an off-ball player. However, in order to be an effective off-ball player, you need to be able to make yourself a threat to keep defenses honest. For the bare minimum, Davis needs to become a good catch & shoot player to earn a consistent rotation player.
In the 28 games he played in the NBA last season, Davis shot 16 for 55 in catch-and-shoot threes. This 29% on usually open and assisted three-pointers is well below the league average. Especially as a perimeter player, Davis needs to shoot in the high 30s before the opposing defenses start respecting his shot.
And if you are a non-shooter as a shooting guard, it’s very difficult to play significant minutes in the NBA. It creates a suboptimal offensive environment with minimal spacing, making it difficult for everyone else. If Davis’ defender hangs back and crowds the paint, slashers like Bilal Coulibaly, Deni Avdija, and Kyle Kuzma will have a difficult time getting to the rim.
One positive aspect of Davis’ shooting is the fact that he hasn’t lost confidence in shooting it. He is not passing up shots and was willing to get them up at the Las Vegas Summer League. Almost more important than hitting your shot is being willing to take them, because how defenses guard you is equally as important as whether the shot goes in.
Davis needs to keep shooting them and has to set himself a target of around 38% on catch-and-shoot threes. This will show that there is still some hope for his shot and that it’s not structurally broken.
Defensive playmaking
Johnny Davis’ strongest NBA skill currently is his individual defense. He has good size and strength for his position, helping him stay in front of perimeter players and guard multiple positions. He doesn’t get pushed around easily and he works hard on the defensive end, making him a tough matchup. He needs to continue working on his defensive building blocks and embrace his role as a defensive stopper.
The calling card for Davis’ game is the defense. If he is going to get consistent minutes for the Wizards, it will be for his defensive chops. He showed his upside on that end in the Summer League as well. He is aggressive, can pressure the ball, and likes to bother shots.
One area he needs to show improvement at the NBA level is defensive playmaking. Despite being an engaged defender, he can still be more active as a help defender. He needs to get into the passing lanes, bother drivers, and protect the rim as a weakside defender. He had 1.2 steals and 0.5 blocks per game for the Capital City Go-Go last season. Those numbers are decent but if he can add a little more help plays to his game, his defensive potential will hit another level.
This is especially important since Davis is a good transition player. If he can force more turnovers and missed shots, this will give him an opportunity to run the floor and get easy buckets on the other end. For a player who struggles in the half-court, going on fast breaks to help boost his efficiency is a great way to gain his confidence.
Secondary playmaking
It is rather obvious that Johnny Davis will not be a primary shot-creator for the Washington Wizards in the 2023-24 season. Barring a major unpredictable improvement, he will likely never be a primary playmaker for a team in the NBA. And that is completely fine.
Being a primary ballhandler and the offensive engine is a very high threshold to clear for any NBA prospect. There are only a handful of young players who are entrusted with that role in their second year. Davis will likely not be one of them.
Therefore, he needs to find ways to be effective while being a small part of the offense. This can come through secondary playmaking. For this, he needs to improve his ballhandling, passing, and screening.
Davis has never been a high-assist player in his career. He has usually been utilized as a score-first on-ball creator. This adaptation to an off-ball role is not easy, but it’s also crucial if Davis wants to stick around in the NBA.
If Davis is not good at creating advantages offensively, he could be the weakside playmaker once the advantage has been created. Catching the ball on the move once the defense is already shifting could open up driving lanes and opportunities to score or make plays for Davis. Improving his ball handling and finishing inside the arc is key for that to work.
Another way to do this is through setting screens and being a roll man. Similar to how Bruce Brown, Draymond Green, or Gary Payton II are used by different NBA teams, Davis could use his strength to set good screens and make plays out of a pick-and-roll if he improves his passing.
Johnny Davis and the Wizards coaching staff need to get creative to find him an offensive role that benefits both him and the team. If Davis can develop in some of these areas, he could be a productive role player as soon as next season.