We are six weeks away from the start of the 2023-24 NBA season. Free agency, the peak of trade season, and the FIBA World Cup are all over. As we are inching closer to training camp and preseason, it’s time to look ahead to the season and make predictions. As always, the most important part of making any predictions is engaging in some hot takes. These improbable but possible takes could make you look very smart or silly depending on the eventual outcome. So, it’s time to take that risk about the new-look Washington Wizards.
This will be Johnny Davis’ last season as a Wizard
This may not be a scorching hot take after a wildly underwhelming rookie season by the tenth overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. However, teams very rarely give up on their lottery picks within the first two seasons of their careers. Davis may be an exception.
First of all, the regime that drafted Davis is no longer there. The new management under Michael Winger and Will Dawkins clearly wants to rid themselves of past mistakes and move on. They have shown a willingness to cut their losses with various transactions and they might want to do the same with Davis as well if he doesn’t show significant improvement.
And the Summer League performance wasn’t promising for Davis. Yes, he was better than last season, but that is an extremely low bar to clear. He needs to show much more to earn regular playing time and maintain that performance to hold onto that rotation role. We simply haven’t seen a rotation player in Davis so far in his career.
Davis is a fine defensive player. He plays with effort and discipline. But unless you are one of the best defenders in your position, it’s not going to be enough to overcome your offensive shortcomings. You either have to become an above-average shooter or a playmaker, and Davis has a long way to go on both fronts.
It’s difficult to see how Davis is going to emerge in the crowded backcourt rotation. It might make more sense to move him before his trade value further declines or waive him to open up a roster spot.
Tyus Jones will be a Most Improved Player candidate
Tyus Jones has long been one of the best bench point guards in the league. He has been overqualified as a backup in Memphis behind Ja Morant and has performed well in every opportunity he had as a starter. Despite averaging 10.3 points and 5.2 assists in only 24 minutes last season, his splits as a starter are even more impressive.
In 22 games as a starter last season, Jones put up 16.4 points, 4 rebounds, and 8.1 assists in 33.2 minutes with shooting percentages of 50% fg and %41.5 from three. Those are high-level starter numbers. If he can manage to play at that level for a full season, he could easily be amongst the finalists for the Most Improved Player award.
Plus, he will likely have a larger role within the Wizards offense compared to his previous teams. After Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole, Jones will be the third option on offense. In a lot of the possessions, Jones will initiate, run the pick & roll, and set the table for the team. This will likely result in more scoring and assisting opportunities.
Jones is 27 and has 8 years of NBA experience. He is entering his prime and finally has his own team. As one of the best assist-to-turnover players in the league for years, he is poised to prove that he is more than just a caretaker point guard. Considering that he is also in a contract year, a surprise breakout season may be coming.
Bilal Coulibaly will start more than half of the games
At the beginning of the season, the starting small forward will almost certainly be Deni Avdija or Corey Kispert. Both players have established themselves as capable rotation players.
The other four players in the starting lineup will likely be Tyus Jones, Jordan Poole, Kyle Kuzma, and Daniel Gafford. So, how will Bilal Coulibaly find a spot to start?
Thanks to Coulibaly’s positional versatility, he can slide in for any starter except for Gafford. If any of the other starters were to miss any time, Coulibaly can replace them in the lineup. If Jones is out for a game, Poole can start as the point guard, while Coulibaly is the spot starter as a shooting guard. Same with Kuzma or Kispert missing games.
This will probably be more of the case in the second half of the season. In the first few months of the season, the Wizards will likely try to win as many games as possible to see how good they actually are. This means playing more of their more experienced veterans. This way, they could also increase the trade value of these players.
At the trade deadline, the Wizards might part ways with some of their expiring contracts or older players. This could include Tyus Jones, Landry Shamet, Danilo Gallinari, Delon Wright, or even Kyle Kuzma. This will open up more playing time and starting opportunities for Bilal Coulibaly.
Moreover, similar to last season, pulling the plug on the season in the final month or so seems probable. In this scenario, Coulibaly will likely be a regular starter as the Wizards will want to give him plenty of studio space to explore what he is capable of with the ball.
Washington Wizards will not be the worst team in the league
The Wizards are widely expected to be the worst team in the NBA next season. Sportsbooks have put the over/under line on the number of wins for Washington at 24.5 wins. This is by far the fewest number of expected wins of any team in the league. Even though the Wizards will almost certainly be bad, they will not be at the bottom of the league.
Despite the departure of talent this offseason, the Washington Wizards still have some talent on the roster. Outside of Bilal Coulibaly, every player in the projected rotation to begin the season is an established NBA player. And it’s not even clear how much Coulibaly will play early on in the season.
This will give the Wizards an opportunity to bank some wins in the first few months of the season. Tyus Jones, Jordan Poole, Kyle Kuzma, Deni Avdija, Corey Kispert, Delon Wright, Danilo Gallinari, Daniel Gafford. There is no one who is unplayable in the regular season in this rotation.
If you look at some of the absolutely horrendous teams in the last few seasons, like the Houston Rockets and the Detroit Pistons, one thing you will notice is the number of young, inexperienced, and unproven players in their rotations. Prospects not ready for the NBA playing regular minutes is what sinks teams’ seasons usually. The Wizards will not have many players who fit that bill, at least until the second half of the season.
They could easily choose to have Johnny Davis, Coulibaly, Ryan Rollins, and Patrick Baldwin Jr. in the rotation as the season progresses and lose a lot of games. But that shouldn’t be the case until after the All-Star break. And the Wizards may have already guaranteed a respectable win-loss record by then. Taking the over in the 24.5 wins makes sense, and winning at least 25 games should be enough to make the Wizards not the worst team in the league.
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