The Washington Wizards will have a tough decision to make at the deadline, and the right move might just be the hardest one to make.
Basketball fandom has a rather nasty habit when it comes to talent on their own roster: over-valuing them. There’s a big wave in Washington’s fan base and the Wizards organization to keep the 27-year old Dāvis Bertāns and a growing sense that the Washington Wizards have struck gold in a young man who could potentially become the best shooter the NBA has ever seen.
The idea behind the sentiment is that the Latvian Laser will become even more laser-like once John Wall inevitably returns from his Achilles tear. And that his ability to spot up off of Wall’s amazing ability to breakdown his defender will be key to Wizards success.
While it’s hard to argue that rose-tinted position, there are a few hard truths that Wizard fans need to come to grips with.
1. The shots just won’t be there.
Let’s take a look at the numbers, shall we? In 2018-19, Bertāns was on a very decent team. I don’t think anyone would argue that we would take a Wizards season that ended with a record of 48-34, would we? That’s exactly where the Spurs ended, anchored by all-star LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan. Two pretty legit players that deserve to take a majority of the shots on your team.
Bertāns averaged 21.5 minutes per game on this team, which is a respectable number for a role player, and saw his usage sit at about 14.1%. DeRozan’s usage was 27.9% and Aldridge’s was 26.9%. Bertāns has enjoyed a 17.7% usage rate on a Wizards team sans Wall and often several other key players in this developmental season.
On a fully healthy Wizards team, he’ll have to contend with Wall’s 28.8% usage as well as Bradley Beal who put in usage numbers of 28.4% in the 2018-19 campaign. Those two players can then account for 2.4% more possessions than Aldridge and DeRozan combined. So what will be left for Bertāns? At best, he’ll have the same 14.1% usage from 2018-19 and put up similar numbers to his 8 points and 1.3 assists per game, as his effective field goal percentage is nearly identical to last seasons (.610 vs. .616). And he’ll get those shots and points at the detriment of developing and giving opportunity to more promising talent.
2. The minutes aren’t there.
Assuming you want to keep Thomas Bryant and Rui Hachimura as the starters, Bertāns will have to be sent to the bench. There are 96 minutes between the power forward and center spots where Bertāns would play. Bryant was playing 28.4 minutes per contest and Hachimura was averaging 29.2, leaving 38.4 minutes for the bench players. Moe Wagner was averaging 20.4 minutes off the bench, leaving a measly 18 minutes for the Latvian Laser.
It’s absolutely true that these minutes could be adjusted to accommodate the 27-year-old, but you would be doing so to the detriment of Wagner (22), Hachimura (21), and Bryant (22). That’s a lot of investment in terms of playing time for someone who will have a career that extends significantly shorter than these three guys, all of which are signed to our squad through at least 2021-22.
Sometimes, good team decisions are made by “addition by subtraction.” By taking Bertāns out of the picture through a trade, you can build assets for the future but also create space and opportunity for this plethora of younger players.
3. He will absolutely cost us too much.
Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, Bertāns is an unrestricted free agent next year. He is making a cap-friendly $7 million this year, but he’ll command much more than that in the offseason if we want to re-up, especially with all the hype around him right now and if we continue to give him big minutes. He will certainly make more than the $4.7 million Rui Hachimura will make next season, and way more than the $2.16 million that Wagner will make, and rightfully so. He should get paid.
But when a player gets paid, that takes away resources to be able to pay another position, perhaps one that we need to address more pressingly like a legitimate starting small forward, or another star to pair with Wall and Beal.
Trade him, before he walks away for nothing.
How convinced are we that Bertāns will want to extend his stay with the Washington Wizards for a reasonable amount of money? If we pay him, as some other team certainly will, sure he would probably stick around, but then we put ourselves in a position where we can not add another key piece.
Bertāns’s trade value has never been higher, so the time to trade him is now. Let him go break records on a bad team or be a nice bench piece for a championship contender this year that is willing to part with other valuable pieces that can benefit our Wizards for years to come. If we can get a low 1st rounder or a promising young wing player or scorer that we can have under contract for several years, why wouldn’t we do it?
Teams also tend to get the best value back when multiple teams are vying for the same player. With the Celtics, Nuggets, 76ers, Hawks, and Lakers all reportedly interested in the big man, the time to strike on making a trade is now, as long as the right price is offered.