Washington Wizards: Will Bradley Beal make the All-Star Game?

Will the Washington Wizards have anyone representing them in the All-Star Game? If Bradley Beal doesn’t make it, then who will?

The Washington Wizards six-season streak of All-Star game representation could be in jeopardy when the NBA spends the weekend in Chicago for 2020 NBA All-Star Weekend. But will any Wizards be playing in the game? There’s no question Bradley Beal is balling out, but a closer look at the rest of the field, and the available spaces, makes it a little less of a sure thing.

By the Numbers

Bradley Beal has been to two consecutive All-Star games, and from a pure production standpoint, he’s having a better season now than he ever has. So far this season, Beal is averaging 27.2 points (career-high), 6.4 assists (career-high), ad 4.6 rebounds. Per Basketball-Reference, there have been 51 individual seasons in NBA history in which a player averaged at least 27 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists. Only once did a player finish the season with such averages and fail to make the All-Star game.

This season, Beal is one of five players averaging at least 27, six, and four. Luckily for his All-Star chances, only one of the other four, Trae Young, plays in the East.

Beal is currently sixth in the NBA in points per game and has four games this season with at least 40 points. Only James Harden and Trae Young have more this season. Luka Doncic and Anthony Davis both have reached the 40-point plateau four times, as well.

However, there are some stats working against Beal. While he might be scoring more than ever, he’s doing so less efficiently than ever, too. Despite a career-high in points per game, Beal’s effective field goal percentage this season is 49.5 percent, the lowest it has been since the 2014-15 season. And his three point-percentage is the lowest it has ever been since Beal entered the NBA. He’s shooting a lowly 31.3 percent from beyond the arc this season. In his seven seasons prior, Beal never shot below 35 percent from outside.

Oh, and the Wizards only have 14 wins after 42 games. They’re 12th in the East and have their eyes on the lottery instead of the postseason. A lot of that is due to the team’s god-awful defense and Beal isn’t without blame there. On the NBA’s worst defensive team, Beal owns the second-worst defensive rating.

One measure of an All-Star is how they elevate their team and help win games. Yes, the cards have been stacked against the Wizards this season with all the injuries, but it can’t be ignored that some of the Wizards’ impressive (but few) wins have actually come without Beal on the floor.

Beal vs the Field

Then there’s simply the case of is there enough room? Beal is playing great — even if the Wizards aren’t winning — but there’s always somebody who gets snubbed from the All-Star Game rosters. Is this the year Beal’s on the snubs list instead of the stars list?

Let’s break it down. There are 12 total roster spots available for the Eastern Conference All-Star team. There are two backcourt starters and three frontcourt starters. Then there are seven reserves: two backcourt, three frontcourt, and two ‘wild cards’. So, at most, there are six guard spots. For argument’s sake, we’ll assume six guards will make the team.

Judging by the third returns on the fan votes, it’s probably safe to give Kyrie Irving and Trae Young the starting spots.

So that’s two spots gone. Kemba Walker‘s probably in as the best player on a very good Boston Celtics team. Given Joel Embiid‘s recent injury, we can probably assume Ben Simmons goes, too, as someone will need to represent the Philadelphia 76ers. Again, winning gets rewarded in the All-Star game, and the 76ers are one of the East’s contenders. Even if Embiid is healthy, Simmons probably gets in anyway, though.

So that’s four spots gone. There are only two spots left and we haven’t called Beal’s name.

Beal’s obvious competition for these final two spots includes Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Zach LaVine, Derrick Rose, Jaylen Brown, and Malcolm Brogdon.

If you want to go the route of rewarding a winning team — the reigning champs at that — then either Lowry or VanVleet probably gets in. Although, the Toronto Raptors don’t need a backcourt star in order to be represented in Chicago. Pascal Siakam is a frontcourt shoo-in.

LaVine would be a logical choice seeing as how the All-Star Game will be in Chicago and LaVine is the only Bull worthy of consideration. LaVine has never been selected to an All-Star Game and is in the midst of the best season of his career. Plus, it increases our chances of seeing LaVine back in the dunk contest.

Derrick Rose, who has his own MVP ties to the Bulls and Chicago, would be a great story (a la Dirk Nowitzki and Dwyane Wade last season) and is having a legitimately good year. But while he’s a good story, he’s not a better player than Beal.

Jaylen Brown, like LaVine, has yet to make an All-Star team and is currently having a career year. However, Walker and Jayson Tatum probably get in before Brown does, and I can’t imagine three Celtics being on this All-Star team. Not this year.

Beal certainly has the numbers to deserve All-Star honors. But in a crowded Eastern Conference backcourt, Beal might find himself as the odd man out. All-Star starters will be announced on January 23, and given where Beal was when the fan vote ended, it’s safe to say he’ll be getting in as a reserve if he gets in at all. Reserves will not be announced until January 30.