Washington Wizards: Comparing Bradley Beal statistically to all-stars

Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal has the chance to be named to his third all-star game on Thursday on TNT. Statistically speaking, does he deserve it?

Bradley Beal has been an all-star for the past two years, representing the Washington Wizards in Charlotte and Los Angeles, but this year he finds himself on the bubble. Without his back court running mate, John Wall, some of his numbers have been on the rise but others have taken a hit, leaving NBA fans and media wondering if he’s truly an “all-star.”

What is an “all-star” exactly? To some, it’s a glorified title for those that do well in a popularity contest, while for others it means these are the very best players the game has to offer. Either way, it translates tangibly into a nice bargaining chip for bigger contracts and more attention on the global stage for an NBA player.

Beal finished 8th in the official weighted score of NBA’s all-star voting, with a weighted score of 6.25 and behind names like Zach LaVine, Derrick Rose, and Kyle Lowry. However, he finished 2nd among the player vote and 5th among the media vote. It was the fans that let him down, dropping his score by placing him 9th in the fan vote.

But perhaps the fans have a point. The Washington Wizards sit on a record of 15 – 30 after a loss to the Milwaukee Bucks recently, finding them at a lowly 12th in the eastern conference. It’s really hard to justify giving any player honors of any kind on a team that wins just 33% of its basketball games.

But still, Beal is a two-time NBA All-Star and is having his best season in points, assists, and free throw percentage. If he made it before, shouldn’t he be a shoe-in this time around putting up career numbers?

If we compare him statistically to the field of those that would qualify as “reserve” (non-starter) shooting guards in the past 5 years of all-star games, we get a pretty interesting story. In those five years, we have 8 qualifying players:

• Victor Oladipo (2018, 2019)
• Dwyane Wade (2015, 2019)
• D’Angelo Russell (2019)
• Klay Thompson (2015 – 2019)
• Jimmy Butler (2015, 2016, 2018)
• DeMar DeRozan (2016)
• James Harden (2015, 2016)
• Kyle Korver (2015)

Note: These are only RESERVES. Some of these players started some seasons too, and stats from those years have been omitted as Beal can no longer be a starter.

Also note: We omitted Bradley Beal because it felt strange to compare a player against… himself. However, it would be totally valid to throw him into this mix.

In those years, we took each player’s stats, ONLY UP TO THE ALL-STAR BREAK, and found where Bradley Beal ranked among the players and how he stood up against the average.

First, if you took the average of all those players above and compared them against Bradley Beal, it would look like this:

Average of all-star reserves

46.3 FG Percentage, 38.2 3-Point Percentage, 82.5 FT Percentage, 58.2 True Shooting Percentage, 27 Usage Percentage, 6.3 Plus/Minus, 34.1 MPG, 21.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 4.1 APG 

Bradley Beal’s numbers

45.4 FG Percentage, 31.4 3-Point Percentage, 84 FT Percentage, 57 True Shooting Percentage, 32.6 Usage Percentage, -7.9 Plus/Minus, 35.4 MPG, 28.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 6.3 APG 

As you can see, it’s no wonder Beal is on the bubble as his numbers are really similar, but he’s shooting the ball more with less efficiency than the group that made it. This means, unfortunately, that while Beal is sitting at 6th in the entire league in scoring, his numbers are probably a bit inflated with the number of shots and overall usage he’s been getting with Wall on the sideline and no one to fill the hole left behind.

The biggest drag on Beal’s value this season, in fact, has been the biggest discrepancy in these two stat lines: his below average 3-point shooting, even for himself. He is shooting the lowest percentage of his career by a significant margin (4%) than any previous season. And almost a whole 9% lower than his best year in 2014-15.

But maybe the best way to compare these players is through some comparative analysis. Where does Bradley Beal rank among these players in each statistical category?

There were 18 total players, including Beal’s stats from this year, and our Wizards all-star hopeful ranked the following in each category:

• Field Goal Percentage: 13th
• 3-Point Percentage: 17th
• Free-Throw Percentage: 9th
• True Shooting Percentage: 11th
• Usage: 3rd
• +/-: 18th (last)
• Minutes: 7th
• Points: 1st
• Rebounds: 8th
• Assists: 4th

This paints a bit more of a positive picture as the average of these numbers is 9.1, or in other words right in the middle of the pack of the reserves of the past 5 years. This seems to indicate that Beal belongs in the all-star game statistically, though he’s not at the top or the bottom of the pool of players, so he’s not the most deserving or least deserving by any stretch of the imagination.

The NBA reserves will be announced on Thursday night’s NBA Tip-Off on TNT. The reserves will be selected by the league’s coaches, so it will be anyone’s guess who makes it and who won’t, but the Wiz of Awes staff and Washington Wizards fans are hoping Bradley Beal will make the final cut!