Washington Wizards’ odds of landing the top pick in this year’s draft

The Washington Wizards would most likely snag the ninth pick in the draft if the season ended today. But what are their chances at the top pick?

The Washington Wizards stand their best chance, as it stands, at the overall ninth pick in this year’s NBA draft. But since the NBA reworked how the lottery works to discourage tanking, giving more teams a better shot, they still have a decent shot at the first overall pick too.

You can see all the odds here, but specifically the Washington Wizards have a 50.7 percent chance of getting the ninth pick. The second highest odds are for the 10th pick with a 25.9 percent chance of getting slipped to that position.

In a draft that isn’t expected to be all too deep, being the ninth overall pick isn’t necessarily the worst spot to be in, but slipping one pick lower can make or break a team’s plans to draft a player they might have had their eyes on for a long time.

One would have to assume that the Washington Wizards would be looking to draft a backup shooting guard for insane scorer Bradley Beal, or maybe add a potential starting small forward as Troy Brown or Isaac Bonga hasn’t really worked out there.

In this brilliant mock draft put out by our friends over at Soaring Down South, they have one shooting guard and two small forwards coming off the board in the first nine picks. If the Washington Wizards can move further up the board (by losing, let’s be clear), they could have the opportunity to roster someone like Deni Avdija, Isaac Okoro, or Anthony Edwards, but they’d have to move farther up.

It actually “helps” the Wizards that they had the second hardest schedule coming out of the break in terms of opponent win percentage (.531). The scariest thing is that the Wizards had the benefit of the EASIEST strength of schedule out the gate this season according to ESPN.com.

My suggestion? Embrace the tank.

I know that Washington Wizards fans don’t want to hear that, but if the Wizards can let the Chicago Bulls and Charlotte Hornets leapfrog them (only a few games ahead), they can increase their odds at a top four pick from 20.2 percent to 31.9 percent. That sounds pretty good, doesn’t it?

With that pick, they could land one of the names listed above, but without it there’s not guarantee. The Minnesota Timberwolves, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Detroit Pistons are all “reachable” too in terms of losing more than them. If they can “achieve” that feat, they could be looking at a 42.1 percent chance at a top four pick, plus a 2.2 percent chance at the fifth pick.

And the thing is, if this season is really all about development rather than winning now, as the Wizards’ brass has said from the beginning, then you don’t even have to “try” to lose these games. It’s easy. Shut down Bradley Beal, Ian Mahinmi, and probably Davis Bertans, or at least reduce their minutes, and play the young guys a boat load of minutes.

Not only will this approach facilitate the Washington Wizards getting their guy in the upcoming draft, it will also help your team for next season and beyond by facilitating growth in the young guys as they’re getting valuable experience against teams fighting for the playoffs.

The only downside? Bradley Beal may not exercise patience, and may get so upset he requests a trade this offseason. But that’s a risk the Wizards will just have to take to continue this “retooling” of their roster.