Washington Wizards: John Collins should be a top priority in free agency

This offseason is going to be the launchpad or the tipping point for the Washington Wizards. There’s a bunch of questions surrounding what to do with Bradley Beal and/or Russell Westbrook. But let’s operate under the assumption that both Beal and Westbrook stay in the District for now. They’ll have a new coach, the #15 pick in the draft, and free agency. The right signing could go a long way in helping this team get to the next level. So who should General Manager Tommy Sheppard pursue in an attempt to get them there?

The Washington Wizards need to make John Collins their top priority this offseason.

It might sound like wishful thinking to expect that an explosive, highly skilled stretch-four, who was a primary contributor on a team that was two wins away from the NBA Finals, would even consider going to a team that barely made the postseason this year. But it might not be considering what John Collins of the Atlanta Hawks expects from free agency.

According to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, Collins turned down an offer “in excess of $90 million” last offseason. He elected to bet on himself as a high-flying big man on a young Hawks team. When Nate McMillan took over for Lloyd Pierce, the Hawks’ season turned around, and Atlanta made it to the conference finals. In the playoffs, Collins averaged 13.9 points, 8.7 rebounds, and shot 35 percent from three. After the season that Collins just had, he (and his agent) looks smart for turning down that deal last offseason. Now, the 23-year-old is fishing for a max deal in restricted free agency. But he shouldn’t get one.

13.9 points and 8.7 rebounds are good numbers, but that is expected from a second option power forward on a playoff team. And his playoff numbers were actually a slight dip from what he averaged in the regular season: 17.6 points, 7.4 rebounds, on 39.9 percent from three. The question is, is there still more to be seen from Collins, who will be entering his fifth season. His posterizing athleticism and growing perimeter game indicate several All-Star games in the future. But any discerning team can see that his current resume does not justify a max deal. Only his potential does.

Looking at his teammates, Collins averages around the same number of points as Kevin Huerter (12 ppg). Before he got hurt, De’Andre Hunter was averaging 15 points and five rebounds. Bogdan Bogdanović was averaging 14.1 points per game in the playoffs on a bad leg. Huerter, Hunter (when healthy), and Bogdanović put up similar shooting numbers, while Collins only dominates the rebounding category when compared. Not to mention the primary reason they went so deep into the postseason was because of Trae Young’s scoring. Collins was key for the Hawks last season; there’s no doubt. But he wasn’t the primary reason for their success, and they were able to replace his production (at least on the scoring side) with other pieces when needed.

We’ll have to wait and see what other teams do once Collins hits free agency. Although the Hawks have not said one way or another what they’ll do with Collins, recent comments from owner Tony Ressler via Chris Kirschner of The Athletic suggest somebody is on the move.

"“It’s complicated, of course, because what we’re trying to convince people is we’re building something, but let’s not kid ourselves, our job is to run a good business,” Ressler said via Chris Kirschner/The Athletic before adding, “I’m not sure we’re going to be able to keep every single player that we want to keep. Pretty good bet, pretty good assumption we will not.”"

The current market gives players a lot of leverage. A few teams might offer Collins $100-120 million over four-six years, but those teams are likely not getting to the playoffs if a triple-digit contract averages less than 20 points per game.

My guess is that he’ll get some big offers that Atlanta will have the opportunity to match. And Tommy Sheppard must be submitting one of those big offers. Given the Wizards cap situation, that would mean offering a big contract and playing around with existing deals when the market stirs up in order to clear space for Collins. They could start by unloading Davis Bertans’s contract and a few others. For someone with Collins’s skillset, it would be worth it.

Having Collins as a third option would allow the Wizards to stretch the floor, which would open things up for Beal and Westbrook. He would also be one of the Wizards’ best rebounders, a category they struggled in last season. Collins averaged more rebounds last season than any Wizard not named Russell Westbrook. Collins would be competing with Hachimura for minutes at power forward, and the Wizards might end up with a thin bench after giving Collins so much money, but there’s no denying that Beal, Westbrook, and Collins would help the Wizards get better now. 

This offseason, the Washington Wizards need to make big moves, or it’s another half-decade of mediocrity. John Collins, with his age, his bounce, and his versatility could be the player to ensure they don’t suffer such a fate for the next half of a decade.