The Wizards’ wins are proof that efficiency matters more than pace

The Washington Wizards are winning like they haven’t done in almost fifty years, and while there’s a long list of factors contributing to their success, one of the easiest to point out is their change of pace in play.

The Wizards have been among the league leaders in pace (that is offensive possessions per game) the last few seasons.

Last season, the Wizards averaged 106.4 possessions per game, good for FIRST in the league.

The year before, they were 7th with 105.2.

Playing at a faster pace has obvious benefits. One benefit being that you can tire your opponent out and create greater opportunities to score. By pushing the ball in transition, you keep the opposing defense on their toes. You can rack up points similar to how Sonic the Hedgehog collects gold rings.

But there is no direct relationship between pace and winning. Sometimes, fast pace basketball is the dietary equivalent of eating a Mexican churro at the state fair—undeniably tasty but ultimately bad for your health.

This has proven to be true for the Washington Wizards, who are off to their best start since the 1974-75 season but currently sit at 24th in pace, averaging only 98.9 possessions per game.

Let’s play a little a game real quick. We’re going to compare a few basketball players, but we will not use their statistical averages per game, but per 100 possessions. The dirty secret for some of these box-score superstars is that they use a quicker pace to create additional opportunities.

For the 2021-2022 season:

Player A: 40.2 points, 9.4 assists, 8.3 rebounds, 4.6 turnovers on 45/41/96 splits.

Player B: 20.9 points, 15.4 assists, 6.0 rebounds, 3.4 turnovers on 47/32/86 splits.

Player C: 26.5 points, 11.6 assists, 11.3 rebounds, 6.6 turnovers on 43/30/68 splits.

Player D: 25 points, 9.0 assists, 8.2 rebounds, 2.7 turnovers on 40/37/94 splits.

In a vacuum such as this, Player A is clearly the superior player of them all. The lines blur between players B, C, and D. Player B has the better shooting splits with higher assist numbers. Player C has decent numbers across the board, but his turnovers and shooting splits are hard to stomach. Player D takes superb care of the ball but could shoot better overall (probably a consequence of not getting to the rim enough).

So who are these players and what does it have to do with my overall point?

Player A is Steph Curry. Player B is Chris Paul. Player C is Russell Westbrook. Player D is Spencer Dinwiddie.

You don’t have to play fast in order to be great.

While Westbrook’s impressive motor created more possessions and thus more opportunities for the Wizards, he never really made the most of those extra possessions. Extra possessions mean nothing if you’re throwing the ball away or shooting poorly from the field.

Where do the Los Angeles Lakers rank in pace this year? Second at 104.3 possessions per game.

As we can see, when the possession numbers are equal, the stats even out. The difference between winning and losing mirrors the difference between efficiency and wasted opportunities.

By acquiring Spencer Dinwiddie and hiring coach Wes Unseld Jr., the Wizards have committed themselves to making the most of each possession—even if that means slowing the game down.

And it’s not only translating to more wins. The Wizards currently sit near the top of the Eastern Conference Standings.

Fewer missed shots lead to fewer transition opportunities for your opponent. It gives you time to get your defense set. So even if a slower, more efficient pace means you’re scoring fewer points, you’re in a better position to stop your opponent from scoring as well.

There are other factors here to consider, of course. Spencer Dinwiddie isn’t the only fresh face on this team. Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Montrezl Harrell are all contributing on both ends of the floor. Each of them has played a vital part in reshaping how these Wizards operate on the basketball court.

The Wizards have found a new identity as a team that cares about making the right play, versus making fast plays. It’s not only gifted fans a better game to watch, but hope for the future as well.

We’re only seventeen games into the season, and there’s more to be seen when Bradley Beal regains his form and Rui Hachimura returns to the lineup. But for now, slow and efficient basketball is doing wonders for Coach Unseld and this Wizards squad.