Wizards Report Card Part 2: Grading Deni Avdija and Daniel Gafford

Part one of ‘Washington Wizards Report Cards’ focused on the seasons of rookie wing Corey Kispert and fellow Gonzaga Bulldog Rui Hachimura. In the second installment of our postseason player analysis, I spent time grading two more Wizards players under the age of 25: Daniel Gafford and Deni Avdija.

Daniel Gafford: B-

The Wizards’ high-flying big man out of Arkansas finished the season with career-high averages in points, rebounds and assists, and moved into a bench role behind new starter Kristaps Porzingis.

Season stats: 9.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.4 blocks per game.

PER: 21.81

Gafford got paid this season, signing a three-year extension worth $40.2 million with the Wizards. But after a breakout year operating alongside Russell Westbrook in 2020-21, Gafford struggled through the first half of this season, in part due to an inability to develop much on-court chemistry with Wizards guards Spencer Dinwiddie, Aaron Holiday and Raul Neto.

Gafford himself was removed from the starting lineup, seemingly to showcase fellow 6’10 center Thomas Bryant ahead of the trade deadline. Bryant was not traded, which wasted meaningful playing time for Gafford — a player the organization is obviously interested in developing. The acquisition of NBA journeyman Ish Smith at the trade deadline instantly injected some life into Gafford’s season; an unsurprising turn of events for a player whose main offensive talent is necessitated by having a capable passer as a pick-and-roll partner.

Most recently, Gafford managed an impressive 24-point, 12-rebound performance in a competitive 132-114 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on April 5. In that game, Gafford played heavy minutes alongside Kristaps Porzingis in the frontcourt — a scheme fans had wanted to see in action ever since the Wizards acquired the Latvian big man. For his part, Gafford said he would be comfortable seeing Washington go with that lineup more often.

“If we go with that again night in, night out, it’s going to be good for us because it’s helping us open up the floor, it’s helping our offense flow more smoothly,” Gafford said after the game.

Defensively, Gafford has been good for Washington. Last season, the Wizards’ defense improved almost immediately once Gafford was inserted into the starting lineup, and he has shown the ability to block and affect shots at the rim at an impressive level.

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The Wizards badly need a defensive anchor in the paint, as their defense allowed the third-fewest three-pointers per game in the league this year, but ranked only 21st in the league in opponent points in the paint, according to NBA.com. Gafford has struggled with picking up early fouls as well and sometimes failing to defend sturdier centers without fouling. Realistically, shot blockers in the NBA pick up fouls more quickly than other players, and the team wants Gafford to stay aggressive in defending the rim. A goal of not picking up early fouls, which has forced Gafford out of too many games, would greatly benefit the team.

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Ahead of a likely point guard acquisition this offseason, Gafford will need to develop some synergy with the players who will be tasked with finding him in pick-and-roll sets next season, including (hopefully) both Tomas Satoransky and whoever the team ends up choosing to plug the starting point guard hole this offseason. This will be essential for Gafford because of the nature of his offensive skillset, and a fairly high 73.7% of his made field goals coming off of assists, per Basketball Reference. Without a deep bag of scoring moves to choose from on his own, Gafford, like most rim-running, lob-threat bigs, relies as much on the skills of his facilitator as he does on himself to score. We saw what bad synergy in that roll game looked like with Dinwiddie this past season (mistimed lobs, lower usage), and we saw improvement once Gafford was paired with pass-first point guard in Ish Smith. Much of Gafford’s upside as a player next season will be determined by who the Wizards choose to fill their hole at point guard next season, and how well Gafford is able to mesh with them.

Physical conditioning was also a problem for Gafford in the past, especially in his first season with the Wizards after being acquired from the Bulls. We didn’t see much this season to suggest this is still an issue for the big man, but it’s definitely something to keep an eye on, especially if Wes Unseld Jr. decides to experiment more heavily with the Cleveland-esque, twin towers frontcourt pairing of Porzingis and Gafford next season, meaning Gafford’s minutes would likely increase (Gafford played 20.1 minutes per game this season).

Compared to other young players on the Wizards roster, Gafford is a known quantity on both ends of the floor. In his role, Gafford has been solid. He doesn’t try to do things he isn’t good at, which is exactly what the Wizards need from a player who can be consistently effective as a lob threat and rim protector.

That said, something Gafford might look to improve on is developing his offensive game further from the rim. He’s shown impressive touch around the rim for his size in addition to his dunking and lob-catching ability. While 43.8% of his field-goal attempts were dunks, Gafford shot an impressive 83.7% from 0-3 feet of the rim (3rd in the NBA, per Basketball-Reference), and 44.8% from 3-10 feet. Gafford’s overall FG% on the season was 5th among players who played in at least 40 games this season at a miraculously efficient 69.3%.

These numbers from the 3-10 foot range could signal that Gafford has the fundamental bedrock to develop a solid midrange game, whether it be a jump hook, push shot, floater or midrange jump shot. Another possible indicator of his ability to develop in this area is his very clean-looking free-throw shooting mechanics, despite his relatively poor 69.9% from the stripe this season. Gafford’s 69.9% from the free-throw line this season was considerably higher than any other year, on a career-high 153 attempts, demonstrating significant improvement in this area. Adding one or two more scoring options further from the basket would completely open up the pick-and-roll game for Gafford, forcing defenders to tag him further from the rim on the roll and opening things up for Washington’s guards.

“The main thing is really just, if I’m open, shoot the ball,” Gafford told reporters on April 5. “That’s the one thing that I need to excel at, is building my confidence to where I just take the shot and [I’m] not going to worry about the outcome.”

Overall, this was a bit of a perplexing season for Gafford. He does his job as a lob threat and as a rim protector reasonably well, though didn’t show improvement in either of those roles over the course of the year. Playing considerably less than fans might have assumed at the start of the season, it’s difficult to get a great read on how Gafford fared this season. Gafford does have less room for improvement in his role, despite his age, because of the simplicity of his game, but can make real progress on defense and on expanding his offensive skillset moving forward.

Deni Avdija: B

After missing a large stretch of his rookie campaign with a broken ankle, Deni Avdija reemerged this season as one of five players in the NBA to play every regular-season game and discovered a new identity as a defensive stopper.

Season stats: 8.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists per game.

PER: 11.62

Avdija is one of the Wizards’ young players I am most excited about following this season, which might come as a surprise for fans who have been watching him since his Wizards debut Dec. 13, 2020. Over the course of his first season, fans grew increasingly nervous about Avdija’s identity as a player. With the failed Swiss Army knife experiment of Troy Brown Jr. only recent history,  Avdija’s perplexing ‘OK at some things, great at few things’ play was not a welcome sight. As a prospect, analysts lauded Avdija for his court vision and ability to run the offense as a 6’9 forward, a la Ben Simmons. But once in Washington, Avdija found his opportunities to facilitate alongside ball-dominant guards Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal to be few and far between. Fans of the team (myself included) were ecstatic then, when early this season Avdija seemed to find his identity as a defensive-minded player.

Defense has become a serious bright spot for Avdija, especially considering that his offensive versatility was what analysts coveted most about the Israeli. Throughout the season, and particularly in the first half, Avdija regularly drew opposing teams’ best offensive players as assignments, playing expert defense on players like Demar DeRozan, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LaMelo Ball and Donovan Mitchell. Avdija’s length and commitment on that side of the ball, coupled with a growing understanding of how the game is called compared to the overseas play, helped spur him to one of the highest defensive ratings in the NBA over that span.

After the Wizards started to slide his defense tanked somewhat, but Avdija has shown he has what it takes to be a plus defender in the league.

All that said, Avdija’s offensive game requires serious development to get up to par at the NBA level. Deni has had a serious problem with finishing at the rim throughout his tenure with the Wizards, and I mean serious. Avdija blew a lot of wide-open or very lightly-contested layups this season. He finished 167th in shooting percentage from between 0ft and 3ft of the rim — a particularly bad number considering his size. We’ve seen some improvement in that regard, but it remains a serious blemish on Avdija’s resume and an easy excuse for head coach Wes Unseld Jr. to keep him on the bench when in need of reliable scoring, which is always.

Deni was never meant to be the main scoring option, but fans cringed when they saw Deni smoke point-blank layups and airball three-pointers. Touted as a ‘point-forward’, Deni has also struggled using his left hand when pushing the ball up the floor or driving into the paint — a deficiency in his game that opposing defenses have started to take advantage of. This is an issue that you simply can’t afford in a player whose hands you’re putting the ball in for meaningful possessions.

It could be said that Avdija has improved his three-point shooting this season, though that improvement has been marginal (31.5 percent to 31.7 percent on .1 more attempts per game). In his first season with the Wizards, Avdija was relegated to a catch-and-shoot option, hardly ever with the ball in his hands and often sitting in the corner while Beal or other primary ball-handlers initiated the offense. While that was undoubtedly bad for his development in some regards (thanks Scott Brooks), it should also be noted that if Avdija’s ability to make three-pointers off the catch improves, it will help keep him on the floor more consistently. For a player who has never had a full NBA offseason to focus on improvement, that isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

Lacking personnel and relegated from the play-in tournament near the end of the year, Deni showed a lot of really fun flashes of playmaking ability once he was empowered to have the ball in his hands for extended periods and to make mistakes. Avdija’s ability to facilitate out of the pick-and-roll, including pull-up jumpers from the elbow, a floater or two, and lobs to Daniel Gafford, is still there. It’s just latent and underdeveloped.

“The key is, as your usage rate goes up, you have to make sure that you minimize the turnovers. That’s another area of growth for him,” head coach Wes Unseld Jr. told reporters near the end of the season. “Teams are now starting to push him to his left hand — he’s going to have to figure that out.”

You could notice throughout the season in the small details that Deni still isn’t entirely confident in his left hand, either for dribble against the defense or finishing at the rim. See here how he switches hands at the last minute to his right for what should be a simple left-handed layup.

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That’s been an issue for Avdija as well. While Deni’s assist numbers improved from 1.2 to 2.0 APG, his turnovers per game also nearly doubled, from 0.6 to 1.1 TO per Basketball-Reference. Mistakes aside, this is easily the most enticing, and untapped, aspect of Deni’s game. At 6’9, being able to make those midrange shots consistently alongside a leaper in Daniel Gafford makes guarding the P&R a nightmare for opposing defenses.

Avdija remains a high ceiling, low floor type of player for the Wizards, who requires a lot of development to reach his fullest potential. Had Avdija not found a definitive NBA skillset upon which to stake his claim this season, the alarm bells might have begun to sound for the second-year player. But with only one full season under his belt and having had less-than-ideal conditions for rapid development, Avdija has improved where he could, which is a great sign for the future. The problem for Avdija is consistency and development. With the team as it’s currently constructed and with Beal’s supermax deal looming on the horizon, Washington is aiming to win now. How many reps will it take to get Deni ready to contribute meaningfully on both the defensive and offensive ends of the floor? The answer to that question will tell you all you need to know about his ceiling over the next few years as a Wizard.