With luck, the Wizards’ hot start might just be sustainable after all
By Cem Yolbulan
The Washington Wizards are once again performing well above expectations, sitting at 10-7 through 17 games — good for the 5th place in the Eastern Conference. This is a better start to the season than anyone in the Wizards organization and fanbase expected. But how good are the Wizards really? And how sustainable is their performance?
The Wiz are certainly no strangers to a hot start. This time last season, they were sitting in 3rd place in the East with an 11-6 record, fueled by their defense that was ranked 6th in the league at the time. Things cooled off quickly from there. As injuries started piling up and their defense fell apart, the Wiz were unable to sustain that early season performance despite trading for Kristaps Porzingis. They went 24-41 the rest of the season, ended the season with the 25th-best defense in the league, and finished 12th in the conference.
To make sure we don’t get ahead of ourselves like last year, let’s dive deeper into the Wizards’ season. With a small sample size of only 17 games, it is important to take a closer look at some metrics to analyze the team’s performance to assess its sustainability.
Despite the 10-7 start, the Wizards are getting outscored by their opponents by -0.9 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass’ data that filters out garbage time. This ranks 21st in the league. They rank 24th in offensive rating and 9th in defensive rating.
The Wizards’ defense might actually be legit
Their ranking on defense is certainly eye-popping. More impressively, there is nothing to suggest that their defensive performance is unsustainable. There is no shooting luck involved in these numbers. Opponents are shooting an above-league-average 37.3% on three-pointers against the Wizards. Porzingis and Deni Avdija have been monsters on the defensive end all season.
The Wiz are very good at forcing their opponents into mid-rangers by sealing off the paint, with Porzingis’ presence at the rim being a massive deterrent. They allow the 3rd-lowest frequency of shots at the rim in the league, which should continue throughout the year if Porzingis stays healthy.
Unfortunately for the Wizards, that is a big if. Porzingis has been very healthy all season, playing in 16 out of 17 games. He has looked more mobile, engaged, and effective than he has in a long time. However, it is difficult to expect a fully healthy 82-game season from a player who has missed 18, 29, and 31 games respectively in the last three seasons.
That is when problems may arise for the Wizards. They do not have a replacement for Porzingis on either end of the floor. Porzingis’ ability to space the floor with his shooting from the center position is unmatched on this roster. His usage as a stretch-5 is the main reason the driving lanes are open for the perimeter players. It is no coincidence that the Wizards rank 2nd in the league in rim shooting with 71.6%.
If Porzingis were to miss any time, his backups Daniel Gafford and Taj Gibson would not be able to bring the spacing or the rim protection Porzingis provides, and the team would suffer immensely.
Health can throw a wrench in the season
A similar but lesser concern exists for other players on the team. Key players like Kyle Kuzma and Avdija have not missed a single game so far. Even though the Wizards are a deep team, Kuzma’s size and scoring as well as Avdija’s perimeter defense are close to irreplaceable on this team. If they were to miss games (and since this is the NBA, they most likely will) it might be hard for the Wizards to overcome such absences.
One factor that may play a critical role in whether the Wizards can sustain their early-season performance is their schedule. The Wizards played 11 out of their 17 games at home, winning seven of those. They just completed a six-game home stand where they finished 5-1, helping to bolster them up the standings. This home-heavy schedule is going to even out throughout the season.
However, there is a silver lining: according to Tankathon, the Wiz have the fifth-easiest remaining schedule in the league, calculated by the combined winning percentage of their remaining opponents. Banking wins against solid teams like Dallas, Memphis, Miami and Utah will prove significant as the season progresses. An easier schedule might potentially help them weather an injury-riddled portion of the season.
This Wizards team is good: they are young, fun and they play with high intensity. But are they 10-7 good? Considering that those numbers would imply a 48-win team over a full season, the answer is probably no.
Yet we shouldn’t expect a complete collapse like last season either. Their defense is built on a solid foundation with Porzingis as its leader. We could see internal development from their young players, and Bradley Beal could round into form.
If Porzingis can stay relatively healthy, they can most certainly continue to play at this level with a potential for an improvement on the offensive end. If that’s the case, this is a play-in team at minimum.