Wiz of Awes
Fansided

Can the Washington Wizards make the playoffs in the East?

By Cem Yolbulan

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - FEBRUARY 16: Delon Wright #55 and Kyle Kuzma #33 of the Washington Wizards celebrate a three-point basket by teammate Bradley Beal #3 against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the fourth quarter of the game at Target Center on February 16, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Wizards defeated the Timberwolves 114-106. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - FEBRUARY 16: Delon Wright #55 and Kyle Kuzma #33 of the Washington Wizards celebrate a three-point basket by teammate Bradley Beal #3 against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the fourth quarter of the game at Target Center on February 16, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Wizards defeated the Timberwolves 114-106. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) /
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For the umpteenth season in a row, the Washington Wizards are around .500 and are trying to sneak into the playoffs. They did not choose to rebuild once again and are desperate to make the playoffs to have the privilege of getting swept by the Boston Celtics or the Milwaukee Bucks. What are the Wizards’ playoff chances and what should we expect from them for the final 24 games of the season?

The Washington Wizards are currently standing in 9th place in the Eastern Conference with a 28-30 record. They are four games behind the 6th-seed New York Knicks, and two and a half games ahead of the 11th-seed Chicago Bulls. It seems like they are firmly going to be in the play-in mix for the final stretch of the season.

Rather surprisingly, none of the teams in the play-in race in the East made significant roster moves. Even though many around the league expected the Chicago Bulls and the Toronto Raptors to be sellers during the trade deadline, they stayed put, and in Toronto’s case, they added to their roster by trading for Jakob Poeltl. Other teams the Wizards are competing against like the New York Knicks and the Atlanta Hawks also added to their core at the deadline. So, it seems like no one is dropping from the play-in race any time soon.

It is very difficult to separate the teams in the Eastern Conference play-in morass. Teams like the Wizards, along with the Hawks, Raptors, and Bulls have been consistently mediocre all season. One of the most telling ways to demonstrate Washington’s mediocrity is to look at their advanced stats for the season.

Washington Wizards currently score 114.6 points to the opponents’ 114.3 points per 100 possessions, according to Basketball-Reference.com. Both numbers rank 15th in the league. The Wizards’ net rating of +0.3 is also 15th in the NBA. They rank 16th in the league in three-point shooting percentage. Considering that their roster is mostly average in terms of outside shooting, a regression or progression to the mean is not to be expected.

Where we can expect an improvement from the Wizards is Bradley Beal and his availability. The Wiz have been better with Beal; +2.4 net rating when he is on the floor versus -1.2 when he is not. They are 20-16 in the games he played in, and 8-14 when he didn’t suit up. If Beal were to stay healthy for the rest of the season, they can make a run to finish out the season.

Yet, even though Brad missed 22 games this season, the rest of the Wizards have been relatively healthy. None of their other major contributors missed significant time. If Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis can maintain their healthy season alongside Beal, the Wizards can move up in the standings, but in today’s NBA, expecting any team’s three best players to stay healthy for a month-and-a-half-long stretch may be unreasonable.

The Schedule doesn’t exactly favor the Washington Wizards

The Wizards also do not have a schedule advantage either. According to Tankathon, they have the 13th easiest remaining schedule.

Every data point suggests that the mediocrity and .500 level of performance are bound to continue for Washington. Considering that the Hawks strengthened their team and changed their coach, the Raptors filled a massive hole at the center position and the Miami Heat are famously a better team in the second halves of seasons, it is very difficult to imagine how the Wizards finish above one or few of these teams. And if they don’t, winning two games in a row – with at least one of them being an away game- in the play-in tournament is a tall order.

In the play-in tournament, the Wizards will most likely not have the best player on the court in any matchup. Stars like Pascal Siakam, Trae Young, Demar Derozan, or Jimmy Butler are a particularly massive advantage in a single-game elimination situation. Plus, it is not like the Wizards’ roster is that much better than their play-in hopefuls. If anything, the Wizards have been playing to their potential all season and this team’s talent level is just average on both ends of the floor. It is hard to argue that the Wizards have a coaching advantage with Wes Unseld Jr. at the helm compared to these teams either.

None of this is a surprise. If you build a low-ceiling, high-floor team like the Wizards do year in and year out, this is where you end up. You will always be in the mix to be first-round fodder for a contender, or you will barely miss the playoffs. Neither of these options is that appealing, but it’s sadly the only two possible ways this Wizards season can end.

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Let’s just hope it gives us something to look forward to for next season.

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