As Shams Charania of the Athletic reported in March, the Washington Wizards and Kristaps Porzingis have been in serious discussions for a new deal in which he would opt out of his player option worth $36 million for next year to sign a long-term deal. Even though there hasn’t been much reporting on this front recently, it is worth taking a look at what this deal would look like for the Wizards, considering the deadline to reach an agreement is in late June.
Porzingis had a career season with the Wizards in 2022-2023, playing in 65 games (could have played more if the Wiz were competitive in the final weeks of the season) and averaging 23.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.5 blocks. He had his most efficient season with %62.7 true shooting. His previous high mark for a season was %58.2 in 2020-21. That is a huge improvement. And there is no reason to believe he wouldn’t be able to replicate these numbers if he manages to stay healthy as he is only 27 years old.
Beyond these numbers, Porzingis was also consistently the best player for the Wizards all season. This is reflected in his on/off numbers as the team was +8.5 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor than without. This is the best number on the Wizards by a significant margin. The Wizards had a very respectable net rating of +2.2 when Porzingis was on the court, good for a top-10 level team in the regular season on par with the Golden State Warriors and the Sacramento Kings. The Wizards’ problems were in the minutes Porzingis didn’t play.
The Wizards can offer Porzingis up to four years and $180 million but that may be risky
It is clear that the Wizards need Porzingis if they want to be competitive. Because of the Wizards’ contract obligations and Kyle Kuzma’s potential new deal, letting Porzingis walk will not open up enough cap space to sign a player of his caliber. Therefore, it seems obvious that it is in Washington’s best interest to get a deal done. But what is a fair deal for Porzingis?
The Wizards can offer Porzingis a maximum of four years and $180 million if he were to opt-out. More likely than not, Porzingis should agree to take less annually for the security of multiple years and more guaranteed money. Porzingis is probably aware that this is as high as his value has been in a while. Locking down guaranteed money now makes too much sense to turn down since there is always risk involved when dealing with a 7-foot-3 center with a history of ACL and meniscus tears.
Some similarities to Porzingis could be drawn with Jaren Jackson Jr. who signed a 4-year, $105 million extension with the Memphis Grizzlies, and Julius Randle who agreed to a 4-year, $117 million deal with the New York Knicks, both in the 2021 offseason. The comparison may not be perfect, but Jackson and Porzingis are analogous in their playing styles and reputations as injury-prone players, while Randle, similarly to Porzingis, was coming off a career season with the Knicks when he signed the deal. In the league hierarchy, Jackson Jr, Randle, and Porzingis are similar-level players.
The Wizards need to maintain their cap flexibility
Adjusting for inflation and the new collective bargaining agreement, Porzingis’ deal will most likely be a higher number than Randle and Jackson’s. A four-year deal in the ballpark of $130 million seems like a fair deal for both sides. Keeping Porzingis’ annual salary around $32-33 million will make him a more tradeable asset if the Wizards decide to change course for the duration of this deal. Anything above $35 million a year would not only potentially make Porzingis untradeable in case of an injury, but it also makes the Wizards a very expensive and inflexible team. Paying the duo of Bradley Beal and Porzingis -who only have one All-Star appearance between the two of them in the last four seasons- over $80 million a year would make any owner uncomfortable.
The priority for the Wizards needs to be maintaining flexibility this summer. Re-signing your players and keeping the core together is a worthy goal, but it can’t come at the expense of cap flexibility. The new general manager has to have some maneuvering room with the salary cap and the roster. The Wizards need to see how good this core can be next season, and if it is still far from being a competitive playoff team, need to be able to trade their stars for positive value. That is why the contract negotiations with Porzingis are going to be massive in determining the future of the franchise. Let’s hope the Wizards front office are up to the task.
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