Washington Wizards: Predicting Bilal Coulibaly’s statline in his rookie season

The Washington Wizards are about to embark on one of their most exciting seasons in recent memory. Led by Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma, the young players of the Wizards will have plenty of opportunities to show what they are capable of in a development-focused season. The player who everyone is most excited about is the 7th overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Bilal Coulibaly.

The Wizards’ highest-drafted prospect in a decade, Bilal Coulibaly offers much-needed athleticism, skill, and untapped potential to Washington. The 6’7 Frenchman is turning 19 years old in a few weeks, so the expectations in his rookie year need to be tapered. For a young, raw potential like Coulibaly, it’s all about flashes in the first year or two. Rather than focusing too much on efficiency or overall effectiveness, the attention needs to be on what he can do with the ball in his hand, his defensive potential, and improvement on his skill set.

Coulibaly’s rookie-year stats won’t be amazing but that is irrelevant

Bilal Coulibaly will almost certainly not have some eye-popping stats in his rookie year. 19-year-olds very rarely do. However, if we wanted to make a prediction about what to expect from him in his first season, his performance with the Metropolitans 92 could be telling.

Coulibaly only became a major piece of the rotation in the second half of the 2022-23 season. He finished the regular season with averages of 18 minutes, 5 points, 3 rebounds, 0.8 assists, and 0.8 steals per game on 53% shooting from the field, and 45% from downtown.

However, he played a much larger role in the playoff rotation. Playing 27 minutes per game in 10 playoff appearances, Coulibaly averaged 8.8 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.3 steals.

These may not seem impressive at first glance. However, it’s important to note that Metropolitans 92 played in the French LNB Pro A league, playing against Euroleague competition, and made it all the way to the league finals. Playing against grown men at an elite professional level and playing a massive role on a successful team is nothing to scoff at. There are many high-level college prospects who wouldn’t have been able to crack the rotation there.

Coulibaly will have an easier time scoring in the NBA than in Europe

Plus, European basketball is a significantly slower game with fewer possessions and less spacing compared to the NBA. This makes scoring in Europe much harder than in the NBA. Coulibaly should be able to find more transition opportunities and more optimal spacing to operate in the half-court to fully thrive in the NBA. It wouldn’t be a surprise for him to average more points in the NBA next season than he did in France.

Coulibaly’s averages in the playoffs per 36 minutes were; 11.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.7 steals. He will most likely not play as many minutes in the NBA as a rookie, but he should be able to outdo these per 36 minutes averages next season.

The swing skill here is outside shooting. He probably can’t repeat the 45% shooting from behind the three-point line as he did last regular season, but if he can hit over 35% of his threes, he will have had a much better-than-expected rookie season.

Considering that his two high-level player comparisons, OG Anunoby and Giannis Antetokounmpo failed to average double digits points in their first seasons, it might be a tall task for Bilal Coulibaly.

The Washington Wizards need to be patient with Coulibaly’s development

Fortunately for Coulibaly, he will have plenty of opportunities and playing time in his rookie season. He will presumably enter the starting five at some point. Playing with better starter-caliber players will help him on the court, so it would be fair to expect progress throughout the season for Coulibaly.

A reasonable stat line for Bilal Coulibaly in his rookie season would be about 9 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, and a steal. More important will be his shooting numbers. 35 percent from three and 50 percent from the field should be achievable goals for him.

The Washington Wizards should be absolutely ecstatic with anything above these benchmarks. And if he underperforms these expectations, let’s just remember the two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo only averaged 6.8 points on 41.4% shooting from the field in his rookie season.

Developing young prospects takes time and patience, and luckily for Coulibaly, the Wizards have plenty of both.