Washington Wizards: Predicting Deni Avdija’s 2023-24 stat line
By Cem Yolbulan
As we are approaching the start of the 2023-24 NBA Season, it’s time to focus on the Washington Wizards roster and what each player can accomplish. With a slew of young players on the right side of the age curve, the Wizards can expect significant development from many of their players. One such player is Deni Avdija.
Despite having 3 NBA seasons under his belt, the Israeli forward is still only 22 years old. He comes into the season as the longest-tenured Wizard. This comes with not only responsibility but also expectations.
Avdija has been adding to his game every season in small ways, but he hasn’t had that breakout season just yet. In the 2022-23 season, he averaged 9.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.9 steals, and 0.4 blocks per game. His shooting splits were 43.7% from the field, 29.7% from three, and 73.9% from the free-throw line.
He averaged career-best fg%, rebounds, assists, steals, and points, while starting 40 of 76 games with the Wizards last season. Since he and Washington haven’t been able to agree on a contract extension so far, Avdija has to show major improvement to receive the deal he desires as his contract expires at the end of the 2023-24 season.
Avdija is skipping the FIBA World Cup with Israel to focus on his recovery from a hip injury and focus on his development in his contract year. He will hope that this commitment will result in better on-court performance and a more lucrative contract.
Avdija’s calling card so far in the NBA has been his defense. He has consistently been the best perimeter defender for the Wizards for the past two years. He has good size, strength, and the ability to move his feet well. There is no doubt that he will continue to thrive on that end.
The improvement has to come on the offensive end. So far in his career, Avdija had to have the ball in his hand since he struggles as an off-ball player due to his shooting struggles. However, with Jordan Poole, Kyle Kuzma, and Tyus Jones on the team, Avdija is not the best on-ball creator either, making his offensive role a little tricky.
He either needs to be a more explosive and creative on-ball creator, or improve his outside shooting to become a legitimate off-ball threat.
The statistic to watch all season for Avdija is the three-point shooting percentage. A career 31% shooter on 3.1 attempts per game, Avdija has to get closer to the league average. Perhaps even more important than hitting his threes is forcing defenders to guard him. Now defenses mostly ignore him behind the three-point line and that makes things difficult for the Wizards offense. If he can start hitting threes at a 35% clip, it will do wonders for the offense.
The shooting improvement has to come at the free-throw line as well. For any perimeter player, getting close to 80% from the charity stripe should be the goal. This will help his overall efficiency and True Shooting percentage, which has been below league average all three seasons of his career.
With a more expanded role, more experience on his belt, and a whole summer to work on his game, Avdija could have a breakout season. In three different scenarios, this is what Avdija’s end-of-season statistical profile could look like.
Best-case scenario: 14 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, 0.7 blocks, 46% fg, 35% from three, 78% from the line
Realistic scenario: 11 points, 7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1 steal, 0.5 blocks, 43% fg, 33% from three, 75% from the line
Worst-case scenario: 10 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.4 blocks, 41% fg, %30% from three, %73% from the line
Both for Avdija’s and the Washington Wizards’ sake, let’s hope the best-case scenario plays out. Avdija, who can hit his threes and finish better inside, would be a valuable player. It will be fascinating to see whether he can live up to the increased expectations of Wizards fans.