What should be the expectations for Jordan Poole in year 5?
By Jay Hanson
From a fan’s perspective, the obvious comparison for Jordan Poole is James Harden. A star playing a 6th man role on a loaded roster who blossomed into a star on his own. Yet, I don’t think Harden is the best comp for Poole.
Harden was, and still is, a beast. He came into the league his first year with a 14.0 PER, his second year was a 16.4 PER, and then he took the third-year leap and went to a 21.1 PER. He was traded to Houston just before his fourth year, and he just kept getting better every year to become the James Harden we know now.
The point is, Harden’s trajectory was to be expected. He had demonstrated the ever-so-important year leap and the gamble to acquire him wasn’t as great for Houston. Poole didn’t have the 3rd year leap. He won a championship and was an important piece for sure. However, Andrew Wiggins was the more important “X” factor that year in the playoffs for the Golden State Warriors.
Poole came in to the league with a 7.2 PER, followed by a 15.1 in his second year and just a 16.1 in the third year. Then he got punched in the face that offseason and fell to a 14.6 PER last year. I don’t blame Poole for the dip in year 4, but the lack of a leap in year 3 is telling. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect James Harden to come out for the Wizards. However, we can expect improvement.
A better comparison might be Bradley Beal, who took on a more gradual development like Poole. Brad’s PER was a 13.6, 14.3, 14.0, and 15.5 his first four years. It wasn’t until year 5 (the 2016-17 season) that he took a leap to 20+ in PER. When it became Brad’s show under Coach Brooks, he blossomed from 20.8, to 23.2 and 22.7. Then the Washington Wizards changed coaches, played with a slower pace, Beal continued to get injured, and the rest is history.
I think Poole can give us Beal 2.0 in terms of year 5 improvement. In year 5, Beal averaged 23.1 points per game on about 17 field goal attempts a night, shooting 48% from the field and 40% from 3pt range. From a scoring perspective, 23 to 25 points per game is what I would expect from Poole. But I don’t expect anywhere near the level of efficiency in scoring that Beal provided, but I expect higher assist totals because Poole with the ball is a highlight waiting to happen.
Poole’s splits as a starter two seasons ago (pre-punch) were 20.8 ppg, on 44% field goal, and 37.1% from 3pt range. Not terrible, definitely not Bradley Beal level, but close.
Without Steph Curry this past season, Poole averaged 26.1 points, with 5 assists and 2.8 rebounds per game over 26 games. He did that shooting a poor 41.9% from the field and 31.1% from 3pt range. The Warriors went 14-12 over that span.
I expect that Poole’s production in DC will be closer to the 45% shooting and between 38% and 40% shooting from the 3pt range. This would approximate his 3rd year production with significantly more usage and attempts. He should get about 20 attempts a night, and I think a PER close to 20, with a range between 18 and 20 is reasonable. Let’s see if he can accomplish that.
