The expectations for Jordan Poole in a Washington Wizards uniform are sky-high. A lot of eyes will be on him to see whether he can have a revenge season to make the Golden State Warriors regret trading him. What factors will be in play to impact whether Poole can have that monster season?
The one asset that should improve Poole’s production is the lob threat he never truly had in Golden State in Daniel Gafford. Golden State’s centers could never be confused with high-flyers. Poole still had impressive lob passes to trailing big men while in Golden State. Pair that natural passing ability with a dunker like Gafford, who has been learning from the Polish Hammer himself on how to set screens and become a lob threat, and I think Poole’s assist numbers and Daniel Gafford’s PER will increase.
Poole will also work well with Corey Kispert who looks like he could be a natural fit with the Golden State Warriors; he’s a very good slasher and a very good 3-point shooter. Bilal Coulibaly should also be a good fit from a slasher perspective with Poole.
I expect Kyle Kuzma to complement Poole’s game nicely as well. Kuz loves to push the pace, he is excellent moving downhill, and he also tends to flare out to the corner for an open three off a drive and kick action. I can see Kuz getting alley-oop passes from Poole and being the recipient of open-look catch and shoot 3 pointers. Likewise, I think Poole will get easy looks when Kuz pushes the action.
The biggest hindrance for Jordan Poole could be the slow offense. The Wizards were 17th in pace last season, and 23rd in pace the season before. It will be interesting to see if the Wizards’ pace improves without Kristaps Porzingis. The coaching staff could have believed that a slower pace was key to unlocking Porzingis. But the slow pace clearly came at the cost of Bradley Beal’s production. Beal was an All-Star under Scott Brooks, who operated one of the fastest pace offenses in the league at the time. But under coach Wes Unseld Jr, Beal struggled with the slower pace offense.
Will a slower pace hurt or help Poole? At first glance, given Golden State’s reputation, one would expect that Poole has only played in extremely fast-paced offenses. After all, last season GSW was the 2nd fastest team in the league. But the title run team, in 2021-22, was actually closer to average in terms of pace at 13th in the league. That also happened to be Poole’s best season. In Poole’s second season in the league, GSW was the 3rd fastest pace team in the league, but in his very first season GSW was average with the 15th fastest pace.
Perhaps a slower paced offense won’t be detrimental, especially considering that his best season was under an averaged paced offense.
The lack of three-point shooting should reduce Poole’s production. Defenses can pack the paint, making it difficult for him to drive. And if he is able to drive to the paint, outside of Kispert and Kuz, there isn’t anyone who Poole can reliably kick the ball out to. One of the fascinating things about Poole’s play is his passing to players on cuts and curls to the basket. Beal seemed to get most of his assist off of jump shooters, but Poole seems to get his on cuts and drives to the basket. He makes good reads and has excellent vision.
While I do believe the lack of three-point shooting will hurt his paint penetration, I think the coaching staff can adroitly use their players off screen actions to let Poole work his magic. However, it won’t be easy.
Overall, the increase in expected usage, having a lob threat, and having complimentary pieces in Kuz, Bilal, and Kispert, should outweigh the lack of three-point shooting. The slower pace is an unknown as it’s unclear if the coaching staff will elect a slower pace offense or seek to push the pace. But given that Poole has thrived in both fast and average paced offenses, I don’t view this as a hindrance.
Therefore, given these factors, Poole should see an increase in overall efficiency to about a 17-20 PER. It will be fascinating to keep an eye out on these factors all season.
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