There are two pre-2010 player comps for Poole that come to mind. Gibson Lowenberg noted that Jordan Poole is statistically on par with former Wizards’ great Gilbert Arenas. The Arenas comp is a great one and the similarity of coming from GSW is too hard to beat.
But to stretch, I would look at Danny Granger as a comp from that era. I’m not saying Poole is the next Danny Granger, but I’m saying Poole can give the Wizards something similar to Granger’s scoring output. Even though Granger was a small forward, I think his efficiency and scoring are good baseline expectations for Poole. Granger is by no means a ceiling or a playing style comparison, but in terms of minimum expectations to meet, he is the perfect comp for Poole.
Danny’s PER ranged from about 18 to 22 during his All-Star days with the Indiana Pacers. He shot between 41% and 45% from the field with a 3-point shooting percentage between 36% and 40%. Pre-punch Jordan Poole in the 2021-22 season operated squarely within these ranges.
Granger as a starter averaged between 20.2 points to 25.7 points per game off of 16 to 19 attempts per night. Remember, Granger played in a slower-paced NBA. The faster pace of today’s NBA means more attempts for Jordan Poole.
Another Wizards great Bradley Beal had a PER of 19.5 last season. If we can get something close to that from Poole on higher volume shooting, his season would be a success. I would expect something between 18 to 20 PER this season from Poole.
If Poole gives the Wizards better than a 20 PER, then they might have discovered that “it” piece that could be built around.
If Poole is anything under 17 from a PER perspective, then I think he will have under-achieved. The expectation has to be for Poole to take a leap. No more 15 or 16 PER years. This year Poole has to show the NBA he’s a budding All-Star at a minimum.
The Washington Wizards fans want Jordan Poole to be the next Gilbert Arenas or James Harden, and the path is certainly there to follow. However, if he ends up being Danny Granger, the Wizards should be fine with that. Anything less will be a problem.