Predicting where Washington Wizards will rank on offense and defense
By Cem Yolbulan
The Washington Wizards finished the 2022-23 NBA season ranking 19th in offensive efficiency and 22nd in defensive efficiency, per CleaningtheGlass.com. Their -1.7 net rating was good for 23rd in the league and amounted to 35 wins. After a significant roster overhaul, where can we expect the Wizards to rank in the 2023-24 season?
The Washington Wizards finished in the bottom half of the league in both defensive and offensive ratings in each of the last four seasons. In fact, they haven’t had an above-average defense for the last seven seasons, ranking in the bottom ten four times in that span, and having the worst defense in the league in the 19-20 season. The track record of this franchise on that end of the floor is not promising.
Unfortunately, that is unlikely to change this season.
The Wizards lack high-end defensive talent
The best defensive talent on this team are Delon Wright, Deni Avdija, and Kyle Kuzma. How much Wright is going to play is a question mark, and perimeter players generally don’t make as much difference for the team’s defense as a rim protector does.
There are too many weak defenders and young players who will certainly make defensive mistakes. Tyus Jones, Jordan Poole and Corey Kispert playing significant minutes will create a lot of defensively-challenged lineups. Add Mike Muscala, Danilo Gallinari, and Landry Shamet into the mix, and the team is unlikely to stop anyone on the defensive end.
Depending on coach Wes Unseld Jr.’s rotational choices, the Wizards may have the worst defense in the league. Looking at the rosters around the league, their competition there will be the Detroit Pistons, the Portland Trail Blazers, the Houston Rockets, and the San Antonio Spurs. The Wizards ranking above the Blazers and the Pistons and being the 28th-best defense in the NBA seem reasonable with the personnel they have.
Mid-season trades will likely hurt the Wizards’ offensive efficiency
Offensively, it looks like the Wizards have more talent, at least on paper. However, it’s hard to imagine that this offensive talent will play a lot throughout the season. There is a decent chance the likes of Gallinari, Muscala, Shamet, or even Tyus Jones and Kyle Kuzma will be moved mid-season. Even if they are not traded, they will likely play less and leave more minutes to players like Johnny Davis, Bilal Coulibaly, and Patrick Baldwin Jr. Even though this makes sense developmentally, it will presumably hurt the team’s offense.
It’s hard to see a team with Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma as its two best shot creators having an efficient offense. The Wizards lack in high-end shot creation, playmaking, and shooting, and this will push them toward the bottom of the league in offensive rating. They can be better than San Antonio, Portland, or Detroit, but they will likely be a bottom-three offense for the full season.
This obviously all depends on who is on the Washington Wizards roster at the end of the season. Trades, injuries, and tanking incentives can be determining factors. At the end of the day, this season will be more about the flashes and the improvements the young Wizards show on the court than their end-of-season rankings.
