Can Kyle Kuzma live up to the increased expectations as a primary option?
By Jay Hanson
The Washington Wizards will rely on their star forward Kyle Kuzma heavily in the 2023-24 season. As one of the two best players on the team, Kuzma is tasked with leading the team. But what is a reasonable expectation from him on the court?
Due to the Wizards’ lack of big-man support off the bench, rebounding will have to be done by committee. We can expect a defensive rebounding percentage from Kuzma close to 24.3%, his number from last year. In the 2022-23 season, he averaged 7.4 defensive rebounds per game and 8.5 total rebounds per game, both career highs. I predict he will break his career high and set a new high this year, with around 9 total rebounds per game, with a range between 8.7 and 9.2, in large part because of a lack of big-man depth.
His assist numbers should stay relatively consistent
We can expect Kuzma’s assist numbers to track close to previous years. The faster pace will present more opportunities but his assist percentage should decline a bit given that his new running mate Jordan Poole will have the ball a lot more in his hands. These should offset and his assists per game should range between 3.2 and 3.7 per game, with an expectation of 3.4 APG.
Kuzma shot the ball with incredible volume last season. He had 17.8 field goal attempts per game, compared to a career average of 13.9. It was by far his highest volume shooting year; his next closest season was his sophomore year in the league where he took 15.5 attempts per game with the pre-LeBron James Lakers.
Kuzma will be given the green light again this year, and with a faster pace, his attempts could hit 20 per game. However, this likely doesn’t mean a more efficient scoring Kuzma. Nothing in his prior history would suggest that this is the year he shoots 50% from the floor despite a pace-and-space system fitting his style of play. It should still translate to more points because of more attempts and more fouls drawn.
Kuzma needs to get better at going to the free-throw line
Kuzma should try to get to the free throw line more this year as he looks for paint touches. More attention will be given to Kuzma from opposing defenses because Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis are gone. Kuzma and the coaching staff should focus their training on drawing fouls as he is now a primary option. If he can make that leap, it should result in a nice bump in his scoring. Last year, he averaged 3.7 FTA on 73% shooting from the line. Even if the free-throw accuracy is the same, there should be a jump in attempts, from 3.7 to 4.7 FTA per game.
19.2 FGA per game this year, with an eFG% of 52.0%, with a shot distribution of 6.5 3PA with 34% accuracy, and 12.7 2PA, with 53% accuracy is a reasonable expectation. Based on these projections, we can expect a points-per-game average of 23.5 from Kuzma this season.
We can expect to see a career-high in PER from Kuzma
On the defensive side of the ball, a dramatic improvement in blocks or steals shouldn’t be expected. His career averages are 0.6 steals and 0.5 blocks per game and a continuation of those numbers is reasonable.
His PER in prior years were 15.2 and 14.3, respectively. However, those numbers were largely skewed by the fact that his pace of play was often faster than the team average, thereby skewing the pace adjustment factors in the PER calculation.
His efficiency numbers have him consistently in the top 50 players in the league but his PER ranks him as average. With the faster pace of play and his anticipated improvement in rebounding, his PER will reach a new career high of 18.5, with a large range from 17.0 to 19.5.
The Verdict: Kuzma’s anticipated stat line for the 2023-24 season
PPG: 23.5, eFG%: 52.0%, FTA: 4.7, FT%: 73.0%, APG: 3.4, RPG: 9.0, TOV: 2.8, STL: 0.6, BLK: 0.5, PER: 18.5
