When Alex Sarr is healthy, he’s the type of force the Washington Wizards have rarely had in franchise history.
The 2024 first-round pick has developed into a versatile offensive piece, a great rim-runner and improved shooter. All of that pales in comparison to what he can do defensively; nevertheless, a switchable big who can guard some of the league’s best forwards.
The potential for Sarr is limitless. That is, if he can stay on the floor.
A fractured foot this June during offseason training was the latest setback for the young star, who missed 32 games last year due to a toe injury.
According to Washington general manager Will Dawkins, Sarr should be set to play on opening night. The question becomes: will he be ready? Rehab from back-to-back injuries is a time-consuming process, giving the star very little time to condition for the season ahead.
By committing to playing Sarr opening night, the Wizards are making a bold gamble — one that likely isn’t worth the risk.
The stakes for Washington early in the year are low
Throughout the offseason, the Wizards have signaled a desire to become more competitive in 2026-27. With stars Anthony Davis and Trae Young returning and hope for improvement from their young core, there’s certainly reason to believe.
Even so, it’s fair to say expectations for Washington are still somewhat tempered after one of the worst seasons in NBA history just months ago.
Statements by Dawkins during his presser on Sept. 24 advocated for the team to “take meaningful strides as an organization towards building towards sustained success” and “chip away” at being competitive.
These types of comments hardly point to a team with championship aspirations, or even one that has its mind dead-set on the postseason. The goal seems to be growth and development for its young core and organization as a whole.
Given this ideology, a decision to rush Sarr out on opening night seems silly. Perhaps he is fully healthy, and the Wizards are following the correct injury timeline. But why not take a few weeks to ensure the young star can get up to on-court speed after missing so much time?
It’s clear that Sarr is a valuable part of the organization’s future — of all the team’s young draft picks, he is by far the leader in advanced stats like Value Over Replacement Player and Win Shares throughout his career. His absence would certainly be missed.
But without the pressure of being a true contender, Washington should prioritize Sarr’s health. Its success in the future, and maybe even this season, relies on it.
Alex Sarr’s measurables create risk
If Washington is considering putting Sarr out on the floor, it has likely considered the risk of re-injury, based on the condition of the foot. What must be considered as well, nevertheless, is Sarr’s body type and the danger of re-injury it creates.
The 21-year-old stands at a whopping seven feet tall, but weighs just 205 lbs. That’s incredibly lean compared to similarly sized NBA players like Kristaps Porzingis (7’2, 240 pounds) and Rudy Gobert (7’1, 258 pounds).
The closest comparison in height/weight to Sarr is Chet Holmgren of the Oklahoma City Thunder (7 '1, 208 lbs). Holmgren has quite the injury history, including a Lisfranc injury in his foot that cost him his rookie season and a pelvic fracture in 2024 that cost him 50 games.
There’s obviously a large skill gap between Sarr and the 2026 All-NBA honoree, but both face the same issue: their lighter weight makes them vulnerable to more physicality near the basket and increases the risk of injury.
Just within the first two weeks of the season, the Wizards face matchups with Evan Mobley, Paolo Banchero, and Bulls rookie Caleb Wilson. All of these players will be tough matchups around the basket, especially for a player recovering from injury.
The excitement around Sarr is understandable, as this could be a real breakout year for him. The smartest path for the team, however, is to be patient with the young big man and prevent the threat of any long-term damage.
Both for the future of this season and next season, caution is the answer for Washington on this front.
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