Best-case scenarios for Wizards' young core amid rebuilding year
The Washington Wizards have started the 2024-25 NBA season 2-5, but most fans are less concerned with their record than they are with the progress of four important young pieces: Last year’s number 7 overall pick Bilal Coulibaly and three first-rounders from this past summer — Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington, and Kyshawn George.
The four youngsters have earned significant minutes this season, with each of them starting multiple games and showing flashes of potential. Here are realistic high-end outcomes for these players based on what we have seen so far this year:
Alex Sarr
The number two overall pick in this summer’s draft was more often compared to Jaren Jackson, Jr. or Evan Mobley as a prospect, but his ceiling to me more closely resembles Bam Adebayo’s game.
Sarr has been an impressive rim protector and shot blocker through six games — tallying at least one block all seven games, and multiple blocks in six — but what could make him more special defensively is his potential as a switch defender and his ability to defend on the perimeter, much like Adebayo, who is probably the league’s best center at defending guards and wings.
Offensively, Sarr’s ceiling is likely more limited. The biggest shortcoming to his game is probably his inability to create shots for himself. This much has been clear through summer league, the preseason, and the first two weeks or so of the regular season.
Almost exactly half of Sarr’s 69 field goal attempts have been threes, and every shot Sarr hit from downtown has been assisted, numbers similar to Jackson’s early in his career. Adebayo’s game, meanwhile, has never been as reliant on scoring from the outside, but he has been a passing hub in Miami’s offense, another area where Sarr could eventually thrive.
The Frenchman needs to become a reliable shooter in order to become an effective offensive player, but if he does not develop into an elite stretch five, being a passer out of the short roll and a connective piece in half-court offense could be where he really makes his mark on the offensive end.
Best case scenario: Bam Adebayo
Bilal Coulibaly
This is really the 99th percentile outcome. Coulibaly’s second-year growth has been quite encouraging. He is averaging close to 17 points and over five rebounds per game while meaningfully improving both his three-point volume (2.9 to 4.2 attempts per 36 minutes) and efficiency (from 34.6% to 44%) since his rookie year, and continuing to play excellent defense.
Coulibaly has guarded opposing teams' superstars ranging from 6’3’’ point guard Trae Young to 6’8’’ power forward Jayson Tatum. An anonymous NBA scout recently argued that Coulibaly’s player profile as an athletic two-way wing is “what everyone in the league is looking for.”
The sophomore early career progression may be even better than Kawhi’s at the same point in his career, but the two-time Finals MVP eventually developed into one of the NBA’s best one-on-one scorers. Most players of this profile do not.
Coulibaly has done a slightly better job creating for himself and playmaking, but it would quite surprising to see him become elite in that realm. He should continue to have the opportunity to show what he can do this year on a rebuilding Wizards squad.
The more realistic comps maybe New York Knicks wing duo O.G. Anunoby or Mikal Bridges, both of whom were compared to Leonard before eventually settling into their current roles as elite two-way role players who thrive off the ball but can be secondary options if needed.
Best case scenario: Kawhi Leonard
Bub Carrington
Both former Wizards point guard Dinwiddie and current guard Carrington are bigger point guards who are comfortable operating in the pick-and-roll and do more damage from the midrange than at the rim or from outside.
Carrington has flashed some potential as a scorer and distributor in the early days of his career, and has shown more willingness to shoot from three than some thought he would as a prospect. His positional size also means that he has the potential to be an above-average defensive guard.
Carrington is not an explosive athlete and doesn’t figure to provide enough rim pressure or truly elite shooting to be a star guard, but his build and skills suggest that he could have a long, productive NBA career.
One NBA scout recently said it would not be surprising if Bub was the best point guard from the 2024 draft class. Dinwiddie, an 11-year veteran who made a career of tough shot-making, would be a high-end outcome for Carrington.
During his five-year prime, from 2019-2022, Dinwiddie averaged 17 points and 5.4 assists per game while vacillating between being a low-end starter and an elite option off the bench.
Best case scenario: Spencer Dinwiddie
Kyshawn George
George has somewhat surprisingly worked his way into major minutes just two weeks into his NBA career. He started three of the team’s first six games of the season, averaging just over 27 minutes per game.
George’s role already seems pretty well defined — he will be a floor spacer and a connective offensive piece more so than an on-ball guy.
More than 70% of his shot attempts so far are from beyond the arc. He’s only shooting roughly 23% on his 47 attempts, but the volume (8.5 attempts per 36) is there and his form suggests that the efficiency should turn around at some point. George also has the size to be a serviceable defender, though that progression may take a little more time.
Johnson’s scoring is a little more diversified, but he is similarly reliant on outside shooting, while developing into a useful player in other facets. In 2022-23, Johnson upped his three-point percentage to over 45% on a similar volume as Geroge’s early in his career.
Johnson became a crucial starter on contending Phoenix Suns teams earlier this decade, and is now carrying a larger offensive role on a rebuilding Nets team, though his game seems far more suited to being a high-end role player more than a leading guy.
Best case scenario: Cam Johnson