The Washington Wizards are in pole position to finish with the NBA’s worst record and secure the best odds in the upcoming draft lottery. However, they are currently embroiled in a battle of trying to out-tank the Utah Jazz, who are dropping games like there’s no tomorrow.
The Wizards sit at 15-56. The Jazz are 16-56. This season is shaping up to be whatever is the exact opposite of a photo finish in the race to the bottom. One important factor could jeopardize the Wizards’ chances of grabbing the top pick in the 2025 NBA Draft and the right to draft Duke’s Cooper Flagg, however.
Strength of schedule is a rather intuitive metric that measures how difficult a team’s remaining games are based on their opponents’ records. The metric merely calculates the combined winning percentages of all of a team’s opponents.
At this point in the season, the Phoenix Suns — who are clinging for dear life onto the last Western Conference play-in spot — have the toughest remaining schedule. Their upcoming opponents have a combined winning percentage of .621.
On the flip side, the Toronto Raptors have the easiest remaining schedule in the NBA, and their opponents have a combined winning percentage of .384. According to Tankathon.com, the Raptors’ only “tough” game remaining is a single matchup against the Detroit Pistons.
So how could strength of schedule potentially doom the Wizards?
The Jazz are really the only threat to overtake the Wizards for the worst record in the NBA, and they have the fifth-hardest remaining schedule in the entire league (.568). The Jazz still have games against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Memphis Grizzlies, Indiana Pacers, and Houston Rockets (twice).
Many of those teams are also jockeying for playoff positioning in a crowded Western Conference and desperately need wins. The Jazz will be more than happy to supply those wins.
The Wizards, on the other hand, have the eighth-easiest remaining schedule in the league (.466). Their only “tough” games remaining are against the Pacers (twice) and the Boston Celtics, and the majority of the other teams they play are as eager to lose as them.
With just a single Jazz win separating the two teams in the overall league standings, the Wizards’ dramatically easier schedule could truly make or break the draft lottery. Sure, they control their own destiny in theory, but it’s a lot easier to strategically drop games against teams like the Thunder and Nuggets than teams like the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers.
Losing the top lottery odds would not be quite a disaster, but it would certainly be a waste of a season if the Jazz end up getting the best lottery odds and landing Cooper Flagg.