The Washington Wizards are 29th in 3-pointers made to start the season, and AJ Dybantsa won’t solve their floor spacing issues. Washington is in the bottom three in 3-point makes, attempts, and percentage. They don’t have enough shooting and can’t expect the number one overall pick to solve those issues. Dybantsa is an elite scorer, but his outside shooting is inconsistent.
The 19-year-old led the NCAA in scoring last season by dropping 25.5 points per game. He was a walking bucket in college and showed flashes of elite scoring during the preseason. Dybantsa is 6’9 and powerful. He will get to the rim and score easy buckets in transition. The Wizards just can’t expect him to leap from 33.1 percent from 3-point range on the shorter college line to above average in the NBA as a rookie.
The Wizards want to contend. They plan on making the playoffs with Dybantsa playing a key role. That is a lot to ask of a rookie. AJ is ready to make an immediate impact whenever he is back from his ankle injury. Expect him to be an elite rookie scorer, but Washington’s floor spacing issues aren’t going away when the number one overall pick returns.
AJ Dybantsa has the tools to be an elite rookie scorer
Dybantsa is ready to hit the ground running. He has two superstars flanking him in the nation’s capital. Anthony Davis will draw plenty of defensive attention next to Dybantsa. Trae Young is an elite offensive creator who will put the rookie in advantageous spots. The 6’9 forward will be asked to finish plays and get buckets from the jump.
Since 2017, six rookies have averaged over 20 points per game, including Cooper Flagg last year. Zion Williamson leads that group at 22.5 points per game. Dybantsa may top that mark. Fans have seen the Wizards’ offense sputter as the rookie recovers from an ankle injury. Expect Dybantsa to show off his offensive chops and solve the Wizards' scoring problems.
History is against Dybantsa transforming into an elite shooter while stepping up in competition.
AJ Dybantsa will be a below-average 3-point shooter as a rookie
All six 20-point-per-game scoring rookies shot below league average from 3-point range. It is a massive adjustment going to the deeper line and having to deal with NBA defenders closing out. Dybantsa is more likely to shoot 30 percent from long range than he is to be above average.
During the preseason, the teenager made two of his 11 3-pointers over four games. He wasn’t afraid to shoot, but the shots weren’t falling.
Playing another below-average shooter significant minutes makes the Wizards’ floor spacing issues worse. Dybantsa will provide space as defenses try to slow him down, but teams will keep clogging the lane and forcing the Wizads to shot jumpers.
Washington has a clear need and should operate like a contender before the trade deadline.
Wizards need to add floor spacing before the deadline
Washington can’t be a serious contender making 9.3 3-pointers per game. The worst team in the NBA connected on 10.3 each night last season. The Pistons made the playoffs hitting just 11 per game, but they were upset in the second round of the playoffs as their floor spacing came back to bite them.
The Spurs, Thunder, Knicks, and Cavaliers finished in the top 16 in 3-pointers made last season. Those were the four squads that ended up in the conference finals. Shooting is more important than ever. Washington must space the floor if they want to win.
They can’t expect their young players to suddenly hit shots. Washington must find a veteran on the trade market capable of shooting the lights out. Luke Kennard and Rui Hachimura could be available. They would both provide a massive boost to Washington’s spacing and overall offense.
Making a trade is never easy. No general manager wants to get fleeced. The Wizards must find a balance between developing young talent and pushing toward the playoffs. They want the drought to end. AJ Dybantsa will help, but the Washington Wizards can’t reach their goals without upgrading their roster. It is on the front office to get them a shooter before Feb. 11.
The number one overall pick will shine, but he won't consistently make long range shots in year one. That is why Washington must get him more help.
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