Late in the second quarter of the Wizards’ recent game against the Kings, the team knew what exactly what was coming. Zach LaVine slowly dribbled the ball up, the game’s leading scorer ready to attack.
Washington knew exactly what to expect: Lavine had hit two straight 3-pointers, and a midrange fadeaway on the last three possessions. They knew exactly how to stop it: force the ball out of LaVine's hands, by pressuring the combo guard. And yet, they were helpless to do so.
LaVine finished with 35 points in the game, despite the Wizards coming away with the win. But the Wizards’ inability to find any answers defensively against yet another top guard, a key theme throughout the season.
Washington ranks just 29th in the league in overall +/- against guards, a big challenge for a defense which ranks 29th in defensive rating. Nights like the one against Doncic have become a common phenomenon, with less touted guards like Russell Westbrook and Shaedon Sharpe similarly having their way.
Can Washington find an answer defensively against strong guard play? Could a move at the deadline help their guard woes? As the Wizards seek improvement, the team must find answers.
The Coulibaly Conundrum
The Wizards’ issues defensively are not necessarily new ones. The team ranked 28th in defensive rating the last two seasons, struggling to handle some of the league’s top scorers.
The team’s saving grace over this period, however, was their investment in a talented defensive-first guard. Bilal Coulibaly was drafted in 2023 with the potential to be a true defensive stopper, compared pre-draft to defense-first stars like Jrue Holiday and Mikal Bridges.
So far, while Coulibaly has been solid, he hasn’t quite lived up to the hype. The guard’s lighter frame has allowed larger guards and wings to out-muscle him and get to the basket, despite his long wingspan.
According to the NBA stats website NBArpm, opponents take shots at the rim 2.4% more often when Coulibaly is on the floor, relative to the league average. His physical limitations have made it difficult for him to be a true defensive stopgap, as he is unable to contain top wings like LaVine without help.
Coulibaly is far from the largest problem in Washington, still a positive on the defensive end due to his perimeter defense. The Wizards’ other young guards, Carrington and Johnson, have been far greater liabilities defensively.
But the expectation was always for the other two guards to be score-first players who struggle defensively, given their own physical limitations. Coulibaly, meanwhile, has failed to live up to his draft mark in this regard.
The Wizards need to find a way to become less overreliant on the 6’7 guard, given his flaws. Another defense-first guard to bolster Washington’s young rotation would help, allowing them to play suitable help defense, and provide some physicality against tougher matchups for Coulibaly.
Bullied on the Boards
Another key piece of Washington’s struggles against guards defensively, has been the length of opponents’ possessions. The Wizards have struggled mightily on the boards so far this season, ranking 30th with a 66.7% defensive rebounding rate.
Washington’s bigs have struggled mightily on the glass, allowing opponents to extend possessions often. The extra opportunities create more stress on the Wizards in the half-court, forced to hold up defensively longer than any other team.
Wizards big man Alex Sarr has been much better on the boards as of late, posting a career high in rebounds against the Milwaukee Bucks in a recent game. But the Wizards need the same consistency from their backups.
Anthony Gill has been a nightmare on the glass, and Marvin Bagley III's limitations as a rim protector make his rebounding prowess moot. That's without mentioning veteran big Skai Labissiere, who was attacked relentlessly on the boards against Sacramento last night.
No team is meant to hold up defensively for as many possessions as Washington, with opponents averaging 93 field goal attempts per game against them. Washington needs a piece to aid Sarr on the boards, taking a load off Coulibaly and the Wizards’ guards defensively.
Is there a Trade Deadline Answer?
The upcoming trade deadline looms across the NBA, an opportunity for many teams to fix their biggest flaws. Making a move could be a way for Washington to fix their troubles against guards, either finding Coulibaly more help defensively, or retrieving a backup center. But what options exist realistically for Washington?
The Wizards currently sit with $48 million in cap space, more than enough to make a deal happen. The issue, however, is the available class of trade targets.
There’s not a lot of options for Washington to fix their woes, especially given their desire to hold onto picks for their long-term future. There are a few players that could make sense,though, if Washington is able/willing to outbid competitors.
Oklahoma City big man Ousmane Dieng is a player who has slipped out of the rotation, after being drafted in the first round four years ago. Dieng is still just 22 years old, fitting the Wizards’ timeline, and has shown promising improvement defensively in limited minutes this season. He could be a valuable long-term asset if acquired.
The New Orleans Pelicans’ Yves Messi is another big who could make sense, and will likely be shopped. Messi has struggled to be an efficient offensive player over his career, but has always been a great rebounder, and would lend a helping hand off the bench.
From a guard perspective, the Kings’ Devin Carter could be a viable option. Carter has struggled to find playing time in Sacramento with their depth at the position, but was drafted as a defense-first guard with elite instincts. He could find himself in Washington, and give the Wizards some help alongside Coulibaly.
The Wizards have a few options at the trade deadline, some young pieces that could lead to improvement over the next few months. But the real work will occur this offseason, given the limited options and their current constraints.
If Washington wants to see serious improvement, they must find a way to solve their conundrum against opposing guards. In a conference with some of the league’s best talent at the position(Maxey, Brunson, Mitchell, Brown) the team is lagging behind, without a serious answer.
Expect GM Will Dawkins to be heavy in pursuit of adding more talent over these next few months, hoping to help Washington reach a new ceiling defensively.