Can (and should…) the Wizards engineer a reunion with the Wall-Star?

With the Washington Wizards looking to build around the team’s new duo of Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis, they are in desperate need of a starting point guard. Is there any chance they seek a reunion with All-Star guard and former Wizard John Wall?

While Washington Wizards fans have been looking towards the future these past few weeks, especially in anticipation of the 2022 NBA Draft in which the Wizards hold the 10th overall pick, they’ve also had an eye on the past — specifically on the franchise’s former first overall pick, John Wall.

The buzz around Wall has been spurred on by a series of media tidbits, the latest being Wizards forward Kyle Kuzma posting a picture with Wall on social media May 7, with the caption, “DC Legend”. The post sent fans into a frenzy, wondering if it might be a sign that Wizards players might be courting Wall to return to the District.

For the few of you who aren’t up to date on the Wall saga, here’s some background. On Dec. 4, 2020, NBA media outlets reported the blockbuster trade: the Washington Wizards were sending their franchise player, 5x All-Star point guard John Wall, to the Houston Rockets in return for Russell Westbrook, a former league MVP and the only other point guard whose salary would match with Wall; a whopping $44 million per year.

Wall’s exodus was messy, largely due to a significant rift between Wall and Wizards owner Ted Leonsis over an incident where photos of Wall flashing gang signs at a party in New York City became public. In an instant, Wall, a beloved DC icon, as deeply woven into the fabric of the city as GoGo and Mumbo sauce, a player who famously leapt atop the scorer’s table at Capital One Arena after hitting the game-winner over Boston in Game 6 of the 2017 playoffs, a man who would often proudly proclaim to anyone within earshot that DC was his city, was gone.

So now, two years later, the Wizards find themselves in need of a point guard. Wall, once one of the best point guards in the league, hasn’t played a game since a 27-point, 13-assist outing against the Los Angeles Clippers last April. He made $44 million this year to sit out for the Rockets, who are instead opting to develop their talented young guard tandem of Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr, while searching for a trade partner for the 31-year-old Wall.

Despite the less-than-friendly circumstances of Wall’s exit from Washington, he fits the point guard-sized hole in this Wizards roster which is being assembled with the goal, it appears, to convince Bradley Beal once and for all that the Wizards wants to win with him at the helm and to win now.

For his part, Beal has said that he was disappointed when Wall was moved, as he felt the two had not yet reached their ceiling as players together.

“We never got a chance for us to play,” Bradley Beal told fellow NBA star Draymond Green on Green’s eponymous Draymond Green Show March 24. “When John first went down, that was the first chance for me to really blossom into who I feel like I’ve grown into today in the modern game.”

Beal’s evidence for this claim isn’t just anecdotal, it’s statistical. The high-volume, flashy, scoring we’ve come to associate with Bradley Beal began largely in 2018-19, when his scoring average jumped from 22.6 points per game the prior year to 25.6 points per game. His scoring detonated after that, with Beal racing to his first 30 PPG season in 2019-20, and 31.3 PPG in 2020-21 — the year Beal narrowly lost the scoring title to Golden State’s Stephen Curry. Wall’s major injuries began in December of 2018 after a heel surgery and subsequent fall in his home tore his Achilles tendon and kept him out for the entire 2019-20 season.

With Beal’s ascension to the apex of NBA scoring and the beginning of Wall’s long bout of injuries, however, also began a long streak of losing seasons for Washington. The Wizards’ last season above .500 came in 2017-18 with — you guessed it — Wall and Beal at the helm.

Throughout his interview with Green, Beal waxed poetic about his time with Wall in Washington, wishing they’d had more time to make the pair’s sometimes-strained partnership work in the city they’d both been drafted by.

“John is a brother still, to this day,” Beal told Green March 24. “I could pick up the phone, call John, [and] if I need him, he’s here. And it’s the same, vice-versa.”

And get this; Wall is also reportedly open to coming home to DC, as reported in a March 9 piece from The Athletic’s insider David Aldridge, which told of Wall’s interest in teaming up with Beal once again in a Wizards jersey.

"“Wall would welcome a return to the team that took him with the No. 1 pick in the 2010 draft. It’s something he recently discussed with people close to him and around the league.” – David Aldridge on Wall’s feelings towards returning to the Wizards."

If that’s not enough to convince you, Beal has also signaled his interest in adding a player with Wall’s skillset to the team on other platforms. On NBCSN’s Postgame Live Mar. 21, Beal talked about the team’s roster construction and what it needed most, including guards oriented towards paint penetration and facilitation.

“We need more guys that can get in the paint for us, more ball-handlers, more guys that can really create and get two feet in the paint,” Beal said.

The Good

Wall fits that mold, particularly his ability to get into the paint and dish out assists to his teammates, as he did at a high level throughout most of his tenure as a Wizard, averaging 9.1 assists per game in his career.

In Wall’s nine seasons with the Wizards, he was arguably never surrounded by a cast with the offensive talent of this Wizards roster. Ironically, central pieces of the Wizards current roster like Kyle Kuzma and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope can be traced back to Washington’s original trade for Russell Westbrook, which later netted them Kuzma and Caldwell-Pope, as well as former Wizard Montrezl Harrell.

In addition to Bradley Beal’s emergence as a top-tier scorer in this league, the Wizards’ acquisitions of Kristaps Porzingis and Kuzma in particular stand out as weapons to be utilized by Wall as a floor general. Porzingis provides another high-level talent and a floor-spacer for Wall who flourishes when given open driving lanes to get downhill. The improved shooting of young players like Corey Kispert and Rui Hachimura — who emerged as a legitimate three-point threat for the Wizards this season, shooting almost 50% from deep this year on a career high 2.9 attempts per game — would also help space the floor and give Wall efficient drive-and-kick  options.

According to Beal, Wall is the best passer and fastest player he’s ever shared the court with — skills which ought to be valued by a team that ranked 22nd in pace last year per NBA.com.

“I loved playing with John,” Beal said of Wall on the The Draymond Green Show. “John is the best passer I’ve played with, he’s probably the fastest guy I’ve played with with the ball, and his athleticism, his ability to pass while running so fast to the corners, being able to find guys… it’s night and day.”

Even the acquisition of Gafford last year provides Wall with a dynamic pick-and-roll partner, given Gafford’s capabilities as a lob threat and rim runner and Wall’s downhill speed and ability to hit jumpers in the mid-range. In their short time together, Wall showed great chemistry with the Rockets’ Christian Wood and DeMarcus Cousins, who were adept at both rolling to the rim and popping out off of screens to shoot threes — similar to the skillsets of Gafford and Porzingis.

Finally, the Wizards are in win-now mode whether they say it out loud or not, a mentality which is undoubtedly shared by the 31-year-old Wall. With likely only a few more productive years on the horizon, it makes sense to play for an organization facing a deadline; the amount of time it takes Bradley Beal to run out of patience.

Other teams pursuing that may be more of a ‘win now’ fit for Wall. Wall has also been linked to the Lakers, Heat, Clippers and Jazz — all teams arguably in a better position to compete for a championship in the next few years than the Wizards. That said, Wall likely would have to come off the bench in any of those scenarios other than Los Angeles. In Miami, Wall would play behind former conference rival Kyle Lowry and on the Clippers, he would play behind Reggie Jackson. Knowing that Wall refused to take a backseat role to Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green in Houston, would Wall want to go play behind someone for $5 million? Probably not.

According to The Athletic’s Rockets beat reporter Kelly Iko, it seems that the most-likely scenario for Wall in Houston is a buyout.

"“The Rockets can play the expiring contract card and see if teams will bite, but the most realistic solution is agreeing to terms with Wall on a buyout. Houston had been adamant against going down that path last season, but things certainly can change with time as they have following Stone’s availability.” – The Athletic’s Kelly Iko on Wall’s buyout probability"

As for the Lakers, a trade seems unlikely to materialize given that one has already fallen through between the two teams. Ahead of the trade deadline, the haggard Lakers looked to reimagine the 2020 Houston/Washington trade by sending Russell Westbrook to Houston in return for Wall — a deal which fell through after Los Angeles refused to include their 1st-round pick in the 2027 draft, per Bleacher Report’s Eric Pincus.

Another reason to believe Wall might be on the radar for the Wizards front office is Sheppard’s recent comments suggesting that the team will likely not draft a point guard with their lottery pick this year.

“I don’t see a rookie starting at point guard for us next season. I could be wrong, but I just don’t see that. I think free agency or trade is probably the right route to go,” Sheppard said on the Team 980 radio show April 13.

The Bad

Alright. That’s all the good. But what stands in the way of all this conjecture actually happening? First off, the path to Wall even getting out of Houston this year is rocky. Wall would have to reach a buyout agreement with the Rockets on the final year of his contract, which will pay the point guard upwards of $47 million. The Wizards don’t have the assets to trade for Wall and probably wouldn’t trade for him if they could. If a buyout doesn’t take place, Wall will likely either stay in Houston for the duration of his contract. That’s roadblock number one.

Then there’s the aforementioned rift between Wall and Wizards owner Ted Leonsis, who shipped Wall off in the first place.

Yet another area of conflict might be around Wall’s role in DC. For Wall’s entire tenure with Washington, he was the top dog. It was his team. That’s no longer the case. Can an alpha like Wall agree to take a backseat role?

That’s the flip side of the coin for Wall in terms of joining a talented offensive roster. He would clearly have to defer to multiple players on the roster in the scoring department. Barring any big offseason moves, Wall would join a Wizards roster which will heavily feature Beal alongside Porzingis and Kuzma, who scored 20.2 and 17.1 points per game respectively this season. Offensively, Wall would likely serve as a third, or even fourth option.

Wall struggled to find a middle ground with the Rockets front office regarding his role in Houston, refusing to come off the bench there to allow for the development of Houston’s exciting young talents at guard.

Without certain assurances from Wall about his willingness to accept a smaller role in Washington, it’s unlikely the Wizards offer him a deal. In a year which saw Washington’s locker room fester with petty conflict over playing time and individual roles, Wizards general manager Tommy Sheppard won’t risk that happening again.

The Fit

For Wall to be what the Wizards need at point guard, he would have to check a few boxes. In addition to accepting a smaller role on offense, Wall would have to lock in on the defensive side of the ball, becoming a solid point-of-attack defender for a team which had the sixth-worst defensive rating in the league this season, according to NBA.com. He would also need to be a somewhat dependable three-point threat, which he has struggled with in the past. Finally, Wall would have to be a facilitator first, setting the table for guys like Rui Hachimura, Corey Kispert and Daniel Gafford to balance the attack on offense.

Shooting:

By examining Wall’s shooting statistics, it’s clear he has made an effort to improve as a three-point shooter as he has aged — a must for players who made their careers off of hyper-athletic play like Wall (think Derrick Rose…). In his one season with Houston, three-pointers made up a career high 34.3 percent of Wall’s shot diet. The problem is, he only hit them at a 31.7% clip, well below league average 36.7% that year.

While John Wall hit some clutch three-pointers during his 10-year NBA career, he is admittedly not a good shooter. His best season from three was his slightly abridged 2017-18 campaign, where he shot 37.1% on 4.1 attempts per game. Apart from that season, Wall has only shot above 35% from deep twice in his career, in the 2013-14 and 2015-16 seasons, respectively. He shot 30.2% and 31.7% in the 2018-19 and 2020-21 seasons.

Even more concerning than that is Wall’s three-point shooting numbers factoring in assisted versus unassisted baskets.  Statistically, Wall has shot better on unassisted three-pointers than he has on assisted three-pointers, according to Basketball Reference.

This is an issue in part because, in this new Wizards offense, Wall needs to be a threat without the ball in his hands, spacing the floor for Beal to operate in the mid-range. To make matters worse, Wall’s two >35% three-point shooting seasons have come off of his two highest volume three-point shooting seasons — 308 and 328 attempts in 2013-14 and 2015-16 seasons, respectively. Washington won’t be feeding Wall looks from three, making that statistic worrying.

Playmaking:

In Wall’s 40 games played for Houston, he averaged a career low 6.9 assists per game, while scoring 20.6 point per game — his third-highest scoring average. This could be attributed in part to being on an inexperienced team and taking on more of a scoring load rather than playmaking, but it’s still a concerning number. Should Wall come back to Washington, the Wizards will look for Wall to put pressure on the rim and find teammates for easy buckets but limit his number of mid-range attempts in lieu of attempts for other players.

Defense:

While his defense had begun to wane somewhat by the time he got injured, Wall has been a positive defender for many seasons in the league. Wall is also one of only five Wizards players to ever make an NBA All-Defensive team. He also holds the record for most career blocks by a point guard, accomplished in fewer games than any of the next 18 players on the list. A ball hawk at the point of attack would be a welcome addition to a Wizards defense which has largely been a turnstile on the perimeter in recent years.

Injuries:

Anecdotally, Wall has not lost his explosiveness, as many wondered he might following a short but intense bout with injuries which included an Achilles tendon tear following a fall in his home in January of 2019, followed by a series of infections in the foot.

While Wall’s dunk frequency took a significant dip since his last injury, (only 40 total in-game dunks over the three abridged seasons Wall has played since the 2017-18 season compared to 44 dunks in the 2016-17 season alone) he’s also shown that he still has pop in his legs and the ability to blow by defenders on the perimeter with a lightning-fast first step.

Wall was a fan favorite for years and many in the D.C. area were crushed to see him go. Unlike most players who leave their longtime home city, Wall is still beloved in D.C. Organizational decisions aren’t made to make fans happy, but they are sometimes made to put butts in seats. Washington ranked 7th-worst in home-game attendance for the 2021-22 regular season — the franchise’s worst ranking as far back as the turn of the century, according to ESPN.

The Wizards front office and ownership has demonstrated time and time again that it wants to build around Bradley Beal, giving him unprecedented access to, and influence on front office decisions. The organization’s plan to tender a supermax offer to Beal paints a clear picture of this commitment. It’s not a massive leap to assume that if Beal wants Wall back in Washington, the front office will pursue him. So, if you believe Beal wants a reunion with Wall, and that Wall would be willing to agree to certain terms from the organization regarding his role, then it’s reasonable to believe that a reunion is feasible.

“I’m like, ‘I’m a newly tuned-up player waiting on this athletic, freak of nature to come back,’” Beal said on the Draymond Green show. “Like, ‘Let’s give it one more shot. Let’s give it one more shot.’”

Regardless of what you think about Wall’s fit in Washington, Beal’s comments looking back on his and Wall’s final season in Washington are beginning to sound less like a player reminiscing on the past, and more like one planning for the future.