Predicting Jordan Poole’s stat line in his debut Washington Wizards season

The new look Washington Wizards has Wizards Twitter buzzing. One of the largest major selling points of the reconstructed roster is former Golden State Warriors star Jordan Poole. A player who has been a major contributor to a championship and has drawn some high-level comparisons.

The 23-year-old rising star found his way to the Wizards via trade as he was the centerpiece of the Chris Paul trade. This was the subsequent move to the decision to send Bradley Beal to the Phoenix Suns and officially begin the rebuild.

Probably the biggest question regarding the trade is “What will Jordan Poole look like without Stephen Curry and the Warriors’ system?” That is the question we are here to explore.

Jordan Poole was elite with the Golden State Warriors as a starting player

As a starter this past season, Poole averaged 24.6 points, 4.6 assists, and 3.1 rebounds per game on pretty low efficiency in 43 games. Having these stats cover over half of the season is an impressive feat and one that can be built off of.

His numbers only improve when filtering out any games featuring two-time MVP Stephen Curry where he averaged 26.1 points, 5.0 assists, and 2.9 rebounds per game. Although, his efficiency did drop, he was facing defenses more focused on him.

Many factors held the young star back this past season, including preseason drama, lack of trust with the coaching staff, and trouble adjusting to the new league-wide crackdown on carry and travel violations. These all were factors in Poole no longer meshing well with his veteran teammates in Golden State and eventually led to him being traded.

Many things will be changing for Jordan Poole, he will have new teammates, a new coach, and a new fanbase behind him. However, the biggest change will be the fact that he is now the first option on a team rather than the third.

Jordan Poole will only grow as the top option on the Washington Wizards

With both Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson no longer in the picture, it will allow Jordan Poole to ne the primary ball handler almost every time down the floor. While this will tank his efficiency and his opportunities off the catch, it will cause his numbers to look ridiculous.

The last time a Wizards player had the free reign that Poole is about to have was Bradley Beal from 2019-2021. In those two seasons, he averaged over 30 points per game and put-up crazy numbers in the box score.

It seems very likely that he can replicate the success of Beal. He helped lead the Warriors to a 14-12 record without their star player and as a top two option for their offense. He has proven that he can be a dominant scoring threat on a championship caliber team, why can’t he step up for a team looking to lose games?

Realistically, a floor for his scoring output is going to be around 26 points per game, exactly what he averaged without Stephen Curry this season. The ceiling for his production will be 32 points per game. It seems incredibly unlikely that he will be able to surpass that scoring total as that would be on the level of James Harden and Michael Jordan, something that seems above the 23-year-old’s current capabilities.

He is also probably going to average between four and six assists per game, the Wizards have the talent to get Poole his playmaking numbers, the bigger question is going to be about his playmaking abilities.

In terms of rebounding, he will see more minutes, so three to five rebounds per game is where he will likely end up. Unfortunately, he will probably be on the lower end of that spectrum.

With his defense, he consistently averages just shy of a steal per game and a quarter of a block per game. I don’t see those numbers fluctuating at all from their norm. He won’t be able to put on enough bulk to make a major difference in just one offseason, and his timing still needs some work.

Taking the middle and most realistic numbers from all these ranges gives him a predicted stat line of 28 points, 5 assists, 4 rebounds, and about a steal per game. On these stats, he will not have high efficiency at all, likely around 40-43% from the field and 33% from beyond the arc. Although, his free throw percentage shouldn’t drop at all.

If Jordan Poole lives up to this stat line, he could very possibly be an All-Star, but he would definitively win over the hearts of Washington Wizards fans across the nation.