While every NBA rookie has a learning curve, AJ Dybantsa's experience will be different than most next season. The Massachusetts native won't always run the show as he did at BYU, but he must be efficient enough to contribute to winning basketball with the Washington Wizards.
Recent No. 1 picks like Cooper Flagg and Victor Wembanyama were alphas on their teams right away, but their squads were bottom-feeders in their rookie campaigns. Conversely, the Wizards have gone 50-196 over the last three seasons and now have Trae Young and Anthony Davis, so it's time to at least reach the Play-In.
Washington needs Dybantsa's effect to be akin to that of Kon Knueppel with the Charlotte Hornets last season, who averaged 18.5 points on 47.5% shooting (42.5% 3-point) with 5.3 rebounds and 3.4 assists over 31.5 minutes (81 games) as a rookie. The 21-year-old helped Charlotte finish 44-38 and make the Play-In after multiple losing seasons.
Here are three statistical benchmarks Dybantsa should hit to help Washington finish .500 or better:
AJ Dybantsa must post at least a 22% usage rate
Dybantsa will share on-ball reps with players including Young and wing Kyshawn George, per The Athletic's Josh Robbins. That should make the 19-year-old around third on the team in usage rate.
Knueppel had a 22.3% rate last season, tied with forward Miles Bridges for third on Charlotte among players who logged at least 60 games. Guard LaMelo Ball (32%) and forward Brandon Miller (28.1%) were first and second, respectively.
Dybantsa led the nation with a 33.5% usage rate and 25.5 points per game as a freshman last season, so sharing the ball with Young, George, and others will naturally lead to lower numbers in those categories. However, the 6-foot-9, 217-pounder should still be one of the Wizards' most involved players offensively.
AJ Dybantsa must notch at least four win shares
Knueppel led the Hornets with eight win shares last season, a stat that estimates how many victories a player contributes to their team, calculated by combining their offensive and defensive performances. It won't be easy for Washington to match Charlotte's win total in a deep Eastern Conference with no tanking teams in 2026-27, so Dybantsa deserves grace in this category.
Still, the 2026 consensus first-team All-American should play an instrumental role in the Wizards making the Play-In. Adding four wins to his team could be the difference between it reaching that threshold and not, depending on how tight the standings are.
AJ Dybantsa must score at least 15 points per game on 45% shooting
Scoring and shooting averages don't tell the whole story, but they show how involved a player is in the offense and how efficient he is. If Dybantsa notches the above numbers on a competitive Washington squad in his first season, it'll show that he can impact winning without carrying the team.
No. 1 picks don't usually get drafted onto a team with players as talented as Young, Davis, George, and big man Alex Sarr, but the rookie will have the chance to prove himself in a unique context. Instead of having the best stats in his class and winning Rookie of the Year, his focus should be on efficiency, contributing defensively, and learning how to play off of his teammates.
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