Wizards must use valuable lesson from the past in Anthony Davis extension talks

Five years ago, Anthony Davis was viewed league-wide as an anomaly. 

A Los Angeles Laker at the time, Davis was the prototypical big man, a versatile scorer who could anchor any NBA defense. If made available, teams would’ve battled to have him. And yet, five years can change a lot.

Davis, now 33 years old, has found himself a member of the Washington Wizards and one of the league's most complicated assets. The star hasn’t been healthy in two years, and yet when healthy, he flashes glimpses of the player he once was. 

With just one year, a player option, left on Davis’s deal, he’s seeking either an extension or a trade from Washington. The Wizards seem more likely to do the former, reportedly seeking to hold on to the star.

Given their decision, Washington faces a difficult question: what is a fair price to pay for the star? Can he still be a max-level player? Will he take a discount?

Comparing Davis to similar veterans at his age tells us how the team should approach their star's new deal, to maximize future flexibility and success.

Joel Embiid's contract tells a cautionary tale

Over the past few weeks, as murmurs about Davis’s future have spread, a mock trade involving the star and Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid has been mentioned. Ironically, though, Embiid’s signing should serve as more of a cautionary tale for the Wizards than a desired acquisition. 

The 76ers center has been fantastic when he’s played, leading the team to a series win over the Boston Celtics. But he’s rarely played since signing his massive, fully guaranteed deal, competing in a combined 57 games in the past two seasons. 

While Davis’s health history is better than Embiid’s before signing his 3 year/$193 million extension, it’s not by a lot. The forward played 51 games two years ago, and just 20 last season, while dealing with a seemingly never-ending groin injury. 

Guaranteeing 100 percent of Davis’s deal is something the Wizards won’t do; the NBA as a whole has backed away from fully guaranteed deals in the wake of the Embiid move. But even guaranteeing a large portion would be a serious risk for the team, given his history. 

Any kind of Davis deal should be somewhat short-term, include opt-out years, and rely heavily on bonuses rather than guarantees. This will ensure the team gets value from the star by paying him only if he’s on the floor. 

By avoiding Philadelphia’s mistake, the Wizards can ensure they aren’t stuck with a detrimental cap hit who rarely plays for years to come. 

Rudy Gobert contract shows how Wizards should structure deal

When the Minnesota Timberwolves acquired Rudy Gobert in 2022, they were quite different from the Washington Wizards. Minnesota was looking to reach new heights after losing in the first round of the playoffs, while the Wizards have yet even to reach the play-in.

Nevertheless, with new expectations, Washington should take a page from the way Minnesota signed their then-32-year-old center in 2024. Gobert’s contract was combined with his fifth-year option, lowering his immediate cap hit and pushing money down the road. 

Part of why Davis is reportedly seeking max-level money is because the star has lots of leverage, due to his player option. He could accept the $62 million option next season and put his new team in financial purgatory.

It’ll be hard to negotiate with Davis, knowing he can easily access that money. But by working the option into the deal, the Wizards can circumvent the challenge. The team will still be paying him the full sum he’s owed in his player option, but spread across multiple years. 

Working Davis’s player option into a new contract is a way to manage a potentially untenable situation, appeasing both the player and organization.

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