Washington Wizards: Taking Ernie Grunfeld’s Responsibility To Court

Your mission – if you choose to accept it – is to defend the likely decision to retain Ernie Grunfeld as General Manager and President of the Washington Wizards. If you choose to accept this mission, you are on your own and will receive no support from WoA or any of their staff writers. WoA will cease to acknowledge your existence. You will be disavowed.

Mission accepted.

One last piece of advice before you take this mission on, “it’s not a lie if you believe it” – George Costanza

“It is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles” (Fine, maybe that’s a little dramatic, even for Ernie)

In an effort to understand the Washington Wizards‘ decision to possibly retain Ernie Grunfeld, I felt like I had to delve deep into what a defense of his tenure would consist of and in turn try to convince myself of the merits of it (that part didn’t go far).

The criticism of Ernie Grunfeld typically starts with his win/loss record.

The Washington Wizards are 441-605 during his tenure as President of the franchise. That’s irrelevant in deciding Grunfeld’s fate.

What’s more important is what Ernie Grunfeld has done since Ted Leonsis took over majority ownership of the Washington Wizards. That’s more relevant than what he did for a different owner who likely had different directives.

Ted Leonsis took over team operations during the 2009-2010 season and promptly ordered the disappointing Wizards to clean house and hit the reset button.

This is where being to state our defense for retaining Ernie Grunfeld

Ernie Grunfeld isn’t that bad of a drafter: Since 2010 the Washington Wizards have had eight first round picks and six second round selections. What they have to show for it is the following:
1. John Wall
2. Bradley Beal
3. Otto Porter
4. Kelly Oubre Jr.
5. Draft rights to Tomas Satoransky
6. Draft rights to Aaron White
Of the four other first round selections, two are still in the NBA playing their 6^th season (Kevin Seraphin and Trevor Booker, and the other two (Jan Vesely and Chris Singleton) are out of the NBA.
John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Otto Porter have all proven to be adequate to good selections.
Bradley Beal has struggled this year, but that seems to be more a result of health and development than talent level.
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Players who have proved to be more successful were taken after each, but the selections themselves are defensible.
Kelly Oubre Jr. is an unknown quantity; he has shown glimpses of potential when given an opportunity but the verdict is not yet in.
Kevin Seraphin was selected by Chicago for Washington with the 17^th pick in the 2010 draft.
Drafted directly after him were Eric Bledsoe and Avery Bradley – two productive players, but players who played the same position as their no.1 overall pick that year.
After those two, only three players drafted in the first round are still in the NBA – Quincy Poindexter, Trevor Booker, and Greivis Vasquez.
Booker was selected 23^rd overall by the Minnesota Timberwolves for the Washington Wizards. Only two of the seven players drafted after Trevor Booker in the 1^st round of the 2010 draft are still in the NBA.
The failures of the 2011 draft are what they are.
Jan Vesely was a bust; a player who immediately was a poor fit in the NBA. The Wizards tried him at every front-court position but it was to no avail.
The situation was made worse by the quality of the 2011 NBA draft which saw Brandon Knight, Klay Thompson, Alec Burks, Markieff and Marcus Morris, Kawhi Leonard, and Nikola Vucevic all get drafted within the ten selections after Vesely was picked 6^th overall. The chance to add a player to the foundation with John Wall and really the only benefit to having a terrible record in 2010-2011 was wasted.
The selection of Chris Singleton at 18^th overall in the same draft wasn’t much better.
Chris Singleton’s career path followed Vesely’s in that both have now found himself themselves out of the NBA before we knew it.
A player who came into the draft deemed as a defensive stopper and potential 3-and-D, Singleton never got the “3” aspect of that down well enough to consistently stay on the floor.
Compounding the sting of this miss is three of the next four selections after Singleton were Tobias Harris, Donatas Montiejunas, and Kenneth Faried.
If Ernie Grunfeld was fired at the end of the 2011 draft class’ first of second season, after it was already painfully apparent that Vesely was a colossal bust and Singleton wasn’t far behind, it would have been justified and merited.
Grunfeld, though, was given an extension subsequent to that and his utilization of 1^st round selections since this then has resulted in Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Marcin Gortat, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Markieff Morris (with their 2016 pick)
Are we now going to punish him in arrears for draft mistakes that pre-empted his latest extension?
But what about Stephen Curry in the 2009 draft?
Objection! The prosecution is presenting old evidence which has been thrown out due to the subsequent ownership change.
Washington has used two other first round picks in trades.
They traded their 2014 1^st round selection (which turned into Tyler Ennis) for Marcin Gortat and their 2016 1^st round pick (top 9 protected) to Phoenix once again for Markieff Morris.
A total of 10 first round picks have resulted in the current Washington Wizards starting five as well as a young prospect who flashed potential that is waiting in the wings. T
hese six players are all under contract or are accounted for in the Wizards’ budgeting for the 2016 off-season leaving approximately $30MM in cap space.
Of the second round picks, Shelvin Mack lasted one full season as John Wall’s backup before being released during final cuts ahead of the 2013-2014 NBA season.
He’s now completing his 5^th season in the NBA as a second round selection and may have finally found a home with the Utah Jazz, where he’s excelled since being acquired at the trade deadline. Why couldn’t that happen here? Was it coaching?
“Objection for leading”
Back to the second round.
Glen Rice Jr. flashed potential, being named the 2014 Las Vegas Summer League MVP, however the fit with Randy Wittman never seemed right and that along with off court troubles have him on the outside of the NBA looking in.
Tomas Satoransky’s name is a thorn in Wizards fans’ sides.
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He was drafted early in the second round of the 2012 draft with Jae Crowder, Draymond Green, and Khris Middleton all being drafted with the seven picks following his selection.
That’s not to say Satoransky can’t play.
He’s shown to be a legitimate prospect and may prove to be a useful NBA player if the Washington Wizards can get him to sign in the NBA.
Outside of the 2011 NBA draft, the players selected by Grunfeld have for the most part stuck in the NBA with varying degrees of success.
In some cases, such as Shelvin Mack and Trevor Booker’s, players haven’t peaked until leaving Washington to play for a different coaching staff.
In other instances, such as the case with Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, and Kelly Oubre Jr. being the latest, how players are being developed by the coaching staff may be an issue greater than who was selected.
Even John Wall himself, the no brainer no. 1 overall selection in the 2010 NBA draft and three time All-Star, has inefficiencies in his game that arguably can be ironed out by a better coaching staff.
So, is the issue Ernie Grunfeld or is it Randy Wittman?
Lastly, as our expert witness, we offer this analytical look from July 2014 which quantified GMs draft success.
Grunfeld excels in the trade department. He has long had a reputation of being both the arsonist and the fireman due to his ability to put out his own fire.
Here is a list of the most high profile trades he has made since Leonsis has taken charge of the Washington Wizards:
– Washington traded Ronny Turiaf, Nick Young, and JaVale Mcgee for Nene and Brian Cook.
In spite of the injuries, Nene has been a productive player in Washington and played a large role in bringing professionalism to this organization. McGee is going to be best known for Shaqtin a Fool.
– Washington traded Jan Vesely and Eric Maynor in a three way deal in exchange for Andre Miller. Miller played an integral role in Washington’s first playoff appearance in the John Wall era.
– Washington traded Miller to Sacramento in a trade that netted Ramon Sessions and a trade exception. Miller aged quickly in needed to be replaced last season. Sessions represented savings from a salary perspective and also netted Washington a trade exception which was used to acquire Jared Dudley.
– Washington acquired Jared Dudley from the Milwaukee Bucks for a protected second round selection. Dudley has been a solid reserve and spot starter for Washington. He’s currently ranked 7^th in the NBA in 3-point percentage. The pick given to Milwaukee is top 58 protected and will likely never make it to Milwaukee.
– Washington acquired Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza for the 46^th pick in the 2012 NBA draft and Rashard Lewis’ partially guaranteed contract.
The Washington Wizards bypassed free agency coming off of a 20-46 season and took the certainty of the balance of Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor’s contracts to continue on the path towards professionalism and respectability.
Ariza was a key member to the 2013-2014 Wizards team which reached Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals having a career year playing alongside John Wall while also being their best perimeter defender.
– The aforementioned acquisition of Gortat from Phoenix in exchange for Okafor’s contract and a 2014 top-14 protected first round selection.
That selection turned into Tyler Ennis who is onto his second team and currently averaging a 4.2 points for the Milwaukee Bucks. Okafor has not played in the NBA since being dealt to Phoenix due to an injury.
The majority of these deals favored Washington.
Even in cases where they didn’t the consequences were rarely severe.
The argument can be made that the Washington Wizards should have bypassed a trade and ventured into free agency or held out for more when New Orleans was trying to dump Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor’s salary.
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Coming off a miserable 20-46 season, were free agents going to take Washington seriously?
Also, did the call for cost certainty and professionalism that came with Okafor and Ariza come from Grunfeld or was that an organizational directive?
The trade for Gortat was hated amongst Wizards Twitter.
You know who you were!
You were all screaming that Grunfeld should have held out and made a similar if not more aggressive offer to Houston for Omer Asik.
Gortat has been a highly productive and possibly Washington’s most efficient player since joining the Wizards.
Criticism of the process is a fair criticism.
The trades wouldn’t have been necessary if it hadn’t been for earlier mistakes by Grunfeld. Unfortunately, hindsight is 20/20, but in the moment mistakes will be made.
Grunfeld, however, has shown an innate ability to salvage what he can and quickly recover when those mistakes are made and that is a skill.
It started early in his tenure here when he cleaned up one of Michael Jordan’s biggest mistakes by trading Kwame Brown for Caron Butler.
“OBJECTION, you said you were only going to discuss Ernie’s career since Ted took over ownership”
Oops.
Last but not least is free agency, or better described as the lack of free agency since 2010.
The Washington Wizards have bypassed making a free agent splash and as previously mentioned have opted for certainty via trades rather than pursuing free agents on the open market.
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Ernie Grunfeld has typically been limited to the mid-level exception, bi-annual exception, and trade exceptions as a means to acquiring talent.
Utilizing those tools, Grunfeld has been hit or miss.
Eric Maynor was a major miss, but Paul Pierce with the MLE was a huge hit.
This past season alone, Alan Anderson and Gary Neal for the two exceptions on the surface seemed like perfectly adequate moves but injuries reared their ugly head.
That’s always a risk though, especially when dealing with older free agents.
Therein lays the problem.
The strategy set forth by Washington two years ago has severely tied management’s hands in terms of their ability to be free agent players. The pool of free agents willing to sign for the MLE of BAE become further limited by the Wizard’s willingness to only offer one-year deals and the results speak for themselves.
Gone was their chance to sign a Will Barton and instead Washington was limited to the Alan Andersons and Gary Neals of the marketplace. Grunfeld was able to add additional reinforcements by utilizing a trade exception they picked up from Sacramento to acquire Dudley for a heavily protected future second round selection but that could only do so much.
Am I making an anti-Ernie argument? I don’t know and I’m not sure the answer is available.
The question is: who’s strategy was this? Was Grunfeld pursuing a plan of his own or was he following an organizationally supported strategy designed for the pursuit of Kevin Durant in the summer of ’16? If Grufeld was following a strategy that limited his ability to improve the roster and overestimated that quality of the roster in-place, is he responsible or is it the powers that be?
Ernie Grunfeld is not an elite or upper echelon GM.
What he does offer is a middle of the pack draft skills, a penchant for cleaning up his own mess via trades, and an up and down free agency resume. How much of it is his fault, though? Once players are acquired, isn’t it the coaching staff’s responsibility to get the most out of them?
While watching Wittman over the past four plus seasons coach this team, have you ever felt like you’re watching individuals that are maximizing their talent? No. Instead, you see a coaching staff that is impatient with young players, and based on a recurrence of mistakes, you must wonder are these players being properly developed.
Rhe further development we’ve seen from Shelvin Mack and Trevor Booker in Utah is evidence to that.
Much of my defense of Grunfeld is in the unknown. That may be considered a weak defense, but when the contract status of the President of the organization is a mystery, maybe the unknowns are where the answers really are.
Next: Analyzing the Chemistry Issues Between Wall, Beal
Ernie Grunfeld is likely a middle of the pack GM, but his role and tenure in this organization has made him the poster-child for all that is wrong with Washington Wizards when 30+ years of bad history should tell us that while he hasn’t been able to fix the situation, he may not be the cause behind it.
The defense rests.