Washington Wizards: Top 10 Off-Season Questions

Washington Wizards: Top 10 Offseason Questions

A year ago at this time, it was exhilarating to be a Washington Wizards fan. Now? Not so much.

Remembering Paul Pierce, Wizard, in the playoffs, and then watching him score three points through three games this year, made me think about the passing of time in a way I didn’t want to.

So I made a Letterman-style top ten list: Wizards’ top ten offseason questions. David Letterman was the king of top ten lists, and I can only hope to do justice to those ten sacred numbers. Without further ado…

10. Did Bradley Beal have a good season?

On the surface, no – he did not.

The Washington Wizards groomed Beal for three years and this was supposed to be the season he broke out. Coming off a huge playoffs and in the last year of his rookie contract, many people thought Beal would be a first time All-Star. Instead, he played a career low 55 games and spent time off the bench and on a minutes limit.

He was supposed to be the team’s leading scorer and second best player, but he ended up playing fewer minutes than Jared Dudley or Garrett Temple.

When Beal did play, however, he was considerably more efficient than in his first three seasons.

In a career low 31.1 minutes per game he averaged a career high 17.4 points per game. He increased his usage and his efficiency as he shot a career high 44.9% from the field on a career high shots per minute.

He did this by changing his shot selection.

First, he finally started to kick his long-two habit—in 2014-15 22.9% of Beal’s shots were from 15-19 feet, while in ’15-16 only 16.6% were.

He drove the ball to the basket and took more threes, finishing with a career high free throw rate and three point attempt rate. He also added a reliable floater. For the first time in his career Beal finished with a PER above the league average of 15.

Click here to see the list of players age 22 or younger who have averaged 17+ ppg, 1.7+ threes/gm, and shot 44+% from the floor.

9. What can you do with six ping pong balls?

You can use them for ping pong ball science experiments. Oh, and you can also use them to win the NBA draft lottery.

The Wizards have six out of 1000 ping pong ball combinations, which gives them a 0.6% chance at the number one pick and a 2.2% chance at top three.

My dream is for them to win the lottery and trade the pick for Boogie Cousins. The Kings would have to take that chance to start over, and the Washington Wizards could reunite old college roommates. A win-win.

In the 97.8 % chance they don’t land in the top three, the pick gets sent to Phoenix. I’ll take those odds!

8. Oubre or Otto?

There is really no reason these two need to be compared – but I like to do it anyway, partly because the long-armed small forwards seem to have exact opposite personalities.

Kelly Oubre had more dunks than assists in his rookie season.

7. What is Nene’s legacy?

Let me take you back to the year 2012…

When the Washington Wizards acquired Nene from the Nuggets in exchange for JaVale McGee at the 2012 trade deadline, it signaled a change of mindset. During Wall’s early years, Leonsis and Grunfeld wanted to draft and develop players. McGee was set to be a free agent, so the front office had to make a decision. In Nene the Wizards acquired a proven veteran on a new contract.

On the same day of the Nene trade—March 15—Grunfeld also dumped Nick Young in a three way deal.

Five days later, Wittman—who had taken over for Flip Saunders two months prior—benched Andray Blatche for the remainder of the season.

Nene walked in and was immediately the second best player on the team, the most proven veteran. His 22 point/10 rebound Wizards debut was everything fans had been wanting.

That summer, Leonsis and Grunfeld amnestied Andray Blatche and traded eventually-amnestied Rashard Lewis to New Orleans for Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor. The transformation from early stage rebuilding team to a team completing became complete at the 2013 trade deadline when Grunfeld traded Jordan Crawford.

I will always appreciate Nene for starting that culture change. He probably stayed the team’s second best player until the 2013 trade for Marcin Gortat, and he was a key contributor to the two playoff teams.

In the 2014 playoffs against the Bulls, Nene outplayed the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and number four player in MVP voting, Joakim Noah, to help this core win it’s first playoff series.

Nene’s versatile defense from the power forward spot was a constant during the team’s three straight seasons as a top-10 defense. He has the size of a five and used to have the speed and coordination of a four. Pair Nene with a solid defensive center and they could shut the paint down.

He also never played 70 regular season games or averaged 30 minutes.

The past three years, he’s been awful from the free throw line but constantly complained for calls. In the end he lived up to his contract probably every year but the last one when he could no longer cover modern four-men and became the backup center.

Whether Nene walks this summer (most likely) or the Wizards give him a small contract (less likely), I will fondly remember his time here.

He’s the best Brazillian player of all time and he made sure no one messed with the Wiz Kidz.

6. Is Gortat one of Washington’s best centers…ever?

As crazy as it sounds – yes, he is.

Since the Washington Wizards got the Polish Machine three seasons ago he has started in 257 regular season and playoff games, scored 3,348 points, and pulled in 2,422 rebounds. The man – or machine, I should say – has been productive.

This year, he was second on the team in points, first in rebounds, first in blocks, third in free throws made, and third in minutes. He has had the second highest PER on the team each of the past three years, with an overall PER of 18.2 in Washington.

He never misses games, shoots 55% from the field, is a professional pick and roller, and is an engaging off-court persona (to say the least). No Washington player since 1990 can match his 1000 point/750 rebound/120 block season in 2013-14.

So let’s count it down real quick.

Historically, some legends have played center for the Washington Bullets: Wes Unseld, Elvin Hayes, Moses Malone, Walt Bellamy, Jeff Ruland. But in modern times? It becomes slim pickings. Ben Wallace wasn’t good yet, Chris Webber played power forward…

The starting centers for the three generations of playoff teams since 1990 are Gheorghe Muresan, Brendan Haywood, and Gortat. The 7’7 Muresan didn’t have Gortat’s durability, and Haywood, 6th in franchise history in games played, never had a stretch approaching Gortat’s three-year output.

5. Markieff Morris is _____________?

The Wizard’s new wildcard.

Here are two thoughts I had about Kieff last week:

1) Hmm, should the Washington Wizards consider Jeff Hornacek for head coach? Oh wait forgot about Kieff…

2) It would be sweet if the Wizards signed Hassan Whiteside this summer. But, would he and Kieff be emotionally stable together?

Markieff Morris makes you think about things like that. But he’s worth it. He’s a starting caliber power forward who is versatile enough for today’s league. He’s listed at 6’10″, can switch on defense, and made 1.3 three pointers per 36 minutes after he came to the Wizards.

He can score the ball in isolation and he has a decent assist rate. I’m hoping that his versatility can help the Wiz in a lesser version of the way Paul Millsap helps the Hawks.

I liked what I saw from Kieff after we got him. He developed a chemistry with Wall and he played team basketball. Maybe I just like instant reward, but count me in on the trade.

4. Scott Brooks?

Brooks has a regular season record of 338-207 (.62 win %) and a playoff record of 39-34. He coached in the finals in 2011-12, has won eight playoff series, and was coach of the year in 2009-10.

That is an impressive resume, and Brooks is a big name hire.

3. Will Ernie make a trade?

Here are some high impact players Grunfeld has acquired by trade in his general manager career with Washington, Milwaukee and New York: Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, Nene, Marcin Gortat, Trevor Ariza, Gary Payton, Marcus Camby, Latrell Sprewell, and Markieff Morris.

Simply put, he lives by the trade market.

The Washington Wizards are looking for upgrades, but no one quite knows how free agency this summer is going to play out. The salary cap is making the largest increase in league history, and roughly half the league has room for a max free agent. Players who are actually worth a max contract are limited, and starting caliber players will make unprecedented amounts of money.

I expect Ernie to think about the timeline of the current core and consider his options.

John Wall is on a certain timeline while young, developing players like Kelly Oubre and Otto Porter might be on a different one. Grunfeld has a record of knowing when young players are at the peak of their value.

He cashed in on Kwame Brown at the right time and got Caron Butler, and he cashed in on JaVale McGee for Nene.

Trading away young players is not usually the move of a stable franchise. But you certainly don’t want to be the GM who is making a trade at the 2019 trade deadline trying to convince John Wall to stay.

I expect this to be the Wizards’ most active offseason since Leonsis bought the team.

2. Will John Wall develop a chip on his shoulder?

Wall got a lot of praise last summer and he started the season off sluggish. He has always played better with a chip on his shoulder. He first became a top-tier prospect late in his high school career against long odds. He was criticized at the start of his NBA career and came out on fire. And in 2013, he was forgotten about during his injury, and came back with a vengeance.

I know he does not like watching the playoffs from home right now and seeing point guards like Damian Lillard, Kyle Lowry, Kyrie Irving, Isaiah Thomas, and Kemba Walker (not to mention Steph, Russ, and CP) have all the fun.

So what is he gonna do about it? I hope he comes back next year a little bit angry.

1. Will Ted spend that paper?

According to Forbes, Leonsis bought the team in 2010 for $551 M and it is now worth $960 M.

So why is the most money Leonsis has spent on a non-returning free agent $5.3 million, which he paid Paul Pierce in 2014? He gave big contracts to Wall, Gortat, and Martell Webster, he took on Nene’s deal, and he paid to amnesty Blatche. But he has not spend the money necessary to lure a big free agent.

He and Grunfeld have been planning this summer for a long time.

First, when they acquired Nene they knew that his deal would expire at the same time Bradley Beal would need a new one. Then they made sure to have as few contracts as possible on the books for what will be the summer of Durant. Only five players are currently under contract thanks to all the one-year deals Ernie dished out the past two off-seasons.

Ted must also deal with Beal’s restricted free agency.

Now, when considering if Brad Beal is worth an $80-100 million contract there are some factors.

1) The Wiz can go over the salary cap thanks to Beal’s Bird rights and his lower cap hold, meaning the opportunity coast to sign him is smaller.

2) They are paying for what Beal could do next year, not what he did this year.

3) He’s 22-years-old and has averaged 21.2 points per game in 21 playoff games.

4) The team has already invested a huge amount in Brad.

They need to keep him.

Next: Things Overheard at the Barbershop: Scott Brooks

Whether or not Ted is willing to fork over the cash for a high level free agent and to re-sign Beal is the number one question of the offseason.