Washington Wizards guard Beal has long been compared to Allen, and the numbers after four years are more similar than you might expect.
Four years ago, with the third pick in the 2012 NBA Draft, Washington Wizards fans were very enamored with drafting a young shooting guard out of Florida in Bradley Beal.
Beal, then 19, was compared to a variety of NBA players, including Eric Gordon, Marcus Thornton, and future Hall-of-Famer Ray Allen.
Although he’s probably closest to Gordon, the comparison to Allen always stuck in fans’ minds because of the Hall-of-Fame resume he put together, and Beal himself welcomed the comparison before playing a second of college basketball.
We like to dream big and that’s what’s great about intensely following sports.
As Washington Wizards fans we like to envision a scenario where the team wins 50+ games and advances to the conference finals, even though that hasn’t happened in 37 years. The draft is the part of the year that leads to the most hope, and pre-draft comparisons are a large piece of the excitement.
Though they never really lead to exact matches because each player is ultimately unique, comparisons tie players together over the course of their careers, even if the two only played professionally at the same time for two years.
With that, we’ll check in and see how Beal and Allen compare after their first four years in the league.
Coming out of college, the quick perimeter shooting from the two-guard position, strong guard rebounding, and ability to be a slasher positioned Beal in a similar growth path to Allen, who spent three years at UConn, averaging 21 points and 23 points during his sophomore and junior years respectively.
The extra two years in college added important development to Allen’s game that Beal surely missed out on by leaving school after one year, but in today’s NBA that decision certainly can’t be questioned.
Both players entered their rookie year expected to make an immediate impact, but also joined teams that had young stars on the roster who would be the focal point.
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The Milwaukee Bucks were led by Vin Baker and Glenn Robinson, who each averaged over 20 points per game the year before.
Robinson, who was the number one pick in 1994, 16 years before John Wall, was one of the best young players in the NBA, while Vin Baker was coming off his second consecutive All-Star game.
Allen ended up averaging 13 points on 11 shots a game, shooting 43% overall and 39% from three during his rookie campaign.
Beal’s career began differently because of an off-season knee injury to John Wall, who ended up missing the first 33 games, leading to a 5-28 beginning to the season.
Beal was able to showcase his skills without Wall, but struggled mightily shooting wise with defenses keying in on the then 19-year-old.
In 13 November games and 12 December games, all without Wall, Beal shot 34 and 36 percent respectively. He did flash future potential scoring 22 points on 14 shots in his fourth game and hitting a game winner against Oklahoma City in a game he played 45 of 48 minutes, but his development was certainly halted by that time without Wall.
Wall returned early in January, and Beal’s shooting numbers improved immediately as he shot 45 percent that month, and 48 percent in February and March.
It didn’t help either that Beal missed 13 of the final 15 games, and 26 games total his rookie year. Beal ended up averaging 14 points on 13 shots a game, shooting 41% overall and 39% from three.
Flash forward three years and the statistical comparison of the two players after four seasons is still very similar.
Looking at averages for the two per 36 minutes, Allen posted averages of 18.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 39% from 3 and 44% shooting overall in his first four seasons, while Beal averaged 17.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 40% from 3 and 42% shooting overall.
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The statistical similarities don’t end there, as the shot attempts are almost identical as well, with Allen attempting 10.3 two pointers per game and 4.3 threes, and Beal attempting 10.6 two pointers and 4.9 threes.
Allen, however, exploded in his fourth year, posting 22 points per game, which would be the first of nine straight seasons averaging at least 21 points.
Additionally, in his fourth year Allen was selected to his first All-Star game – something that many people incorrectly predicted for Beal in 2016.
People tend to forget that Allen had a very well rounded game early in his career.
Besides finding his shooting stroke from behind the arc, Allen mixed in leak outs for fastbreaks, strong cuts for alley oops, post ups, and strong penetration into the paint.
For the most part these are things that Beal has developed in his offensive game, but routinely come with inconsistencies. Although Beal has patterned some of his game after Allen, and has very similar numbers early on, there have obviously been limitations to his game.
The main issue for Beal has clearly always been his health.
He’s averaging about 61 games played per season, or 75% of the possible regular season games, and compared to Allen has played 2518 less minutes after four seasons, even though Allen only played 50 games in the 1999 season because of the NBA lockout.
Stability healthwise, increased confidence and aggression will be three important factors moving forward for Beal, and a contract that makes him the highest paid player on the roster will hopefully help him in at least the latter two areas.
Additionally, Allen is well known as one of the hardest working players in NBA history.
His intense work ethic, dieting, and pregame routine certainly are a large reason for his career success, and something all young players, not just Beal, can learn from. Two summers ago, after signing Paul Pierce, there was talk of Allen signing with the Washington Wizards, but unfortunately that didn’t materialize.
The veteran presence of Pierce on the team was certainly very beneficial, and Pierce even mentioned that he saw some of ex-teammate Allen in Beal’s play and characteristics. To take the next step and become a consistently strong performing team the Wizards need Beal to take on even more of Allen’s qualities.
Heading into his second contract, Beal seems to understand what is necessary for him to be the player fans want to see, and the one he expects to be.
He’s committed to dieting this summer, working with his trainer Drew Hanlen to alter his workout regimen, and expects to be back in Washington next season.
Anyone that follows basketball even moderately wouldn’t bet on Beal to become the next Ray Allen, but his effectiveness and production thus far has been somewhat underrated because of his inability to consistently stay healthy.
The NBA today is a very fast paced game that requires the players to exert supreme energy on offense and defense, and coaches and players are taking this into account throughout the year with players missing games for rest, and playing less minutes than ever.
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Recent players like Dwyane Wade, Manu Ginobili and Stephen Curry managed to improve over their careers despite consistent injury issues, and as the NBA is a star driven league, you almost always have to take a risk with an All-Star caliber injury prone player, especially one about to turn 23, to reach the ultimate goal.