The Washington Wizards could look to make a splash this summer by signing Warriors forward Harrison Barnes. Here’s why they should avoid that move
Harrison Barnes has been anointed something he’s not for more than five years now. In 2010, as an incoming freshman at UNC, he became the first player of his kind to be named to the Associated Press’ pre-season 1st-team All-America. Believe it or not, he was even dubbed the next Kobe Bryant
After two solid, yet unspectacular years in Chapel Hill, Barnes fell to the sixth pick in the 2012 Draft and right into the laps of the Golden State Warriors, and was again considered the missing piece to the puzzle.
While Barnes didn’t “wow” the league as expected, he did land in the perfect spot for his personality and game.
After his first couple years, Barnes started coming into his own as a marksman on offense and a hybrid forward capable of defending multiple positions. Neither role required him to be the alpha dog, which was a good thing because he was very much unequipped to do so.
Now, as a key member of a defending NBA champion, league-record 73 win team, and fifth member of the vaunted Death Lineup, Barnes is in line for a huge pay day. Just like in the past, he’s once again going to be asked to do something he isn’t fit for – this time be a max player.
Of course the meaning of “max” has never been what it represents (a star).
Because of the salary cap, we know the LeBrons and Durants of the world simply just subsidize the rest of the league.
To further complicate matters, this summer will defy even that adjusted logic, as everyone from Bismack Biyombo to Dion Waiters will get paid sums that leave all of our jaws hitting the floor.
At any rate, if Barnes does soak up max money from either the Warriors or another one of countless teams with cap space, by virtue of perception and share of salary, he’ll be asked to do a lot more than he’s currently displayed in Oakland.
The Washington Wizards, as it turns out are one of those teams with a ton of money, no one to really spend it on, and a potential need at forward.
So should they chase Barnes, a player who has never been featured but has the skillset to dominate?
I say no, and here’s why.
Scoring:
This is probably Barnes’ greatest offensive strength, as he’s sported a 56% and 57% True Shooting % in the last two seasons.
Obviously one can point to the general ease of launching wide open shots when everyone is panicking about what Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green might do but DC comes with John Wall who’s fairly okay at getting his wings the ball in good spots as well.
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One concern with Barnes is despite his strong frame, he’s ghastly at the rim, converting just 51% of his shots within three
feet. Also, he is not good at getting to the line, averaging just over two free throws attempted per game in his career and converting those at a 74% clip.
And despite playing in such a high octane offense, Barnes’ PER was a paltry 12.3 this season, indicating that increased volume doesn’t guarantee improved efficiency.
Rebounding:
This is yet another area where Barnes saw a dip in production from his career season in 2014-15.
Barnes averaged 5.7 rebounds per-36 minutes after snagging seven per-36 the previous year. He saw dips in offensive and defensive rebound percentage, and while some of that can be attributed to an increased low post role from Green and more activity from Curry on the glass, sometimes Barnes’ passive nature prevents him from playing that ‘junkyard dog’ style of basketball.
What’s worse is that this season Barnes played 56% of his minutes at either power forward or center, compared to just 39% last season so if anything those rebounding opportunities should have increased.
Passing:
Barnes has almost no playmaking responsibilities in Golden State, but because of his ability to put the ball on the floor, should theoretically be able to find open shooters and cutters in an offense.
But that’s not his game and his assist rate has not improved at all in four years in the league.
The Washington Wizards are desperate for another ball handler to ease the pressure off of Wall and Barnes would come more in the mold of a Trevor Ariza, given his 3:2 career assist to turnover ratio.
Defense:
What makes Barnes a really intriguing prospect is his defensive versatility.
In this current series in the Western Conference Finals, he’s spent his time largely checking Kevin Durant.
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Last year vs. Memphis he was assigned the role of Zach Randolph.
Two forwards with a greater disparity in how they function may not exist in the league and Barnes has played them both well.
He’s got length, is stronger than he looks and understands fundamental positioning.
However, some of the advanced metrics don’t necessarily bear that out.
He finished 65th among small forwards in Defensive Real Plus Minus and the Warriors were actually better by 1.8 points per 100 possessions with him off the floor.
Intangibles:
We haven’t seen anything resembling vocal leadership from Barnes and on a team that’ll soon feature two max players in Wall and Bradley Beal that haven’t exactly been lauded for the ability to leads their troops into battle. Adding a third into that mix could spell trouble as no veteran’s voice will carry weight over three guys making over $60 million annually.
For what it’s worth, Barnes does seem like a disciplined player and excellent teammate, though one must question his motor at times when he can’t seem to score in seemingly tailor-made situations.
From a clutch perspective, Barnes hasn’t exactly vindicated himself in the playoffs.
He’s been about the same or worse as his regular season self and has suffered through a disastrous shooting slump for much of the postseason.
It’s tough to extrapolate how that’ll turn out on a year-to-year basis but my feeling is that he doesn’t have the chops to be more than a situational role player.
Verdict:
In normal circumstances, I may have been talked into Barnes but given the salary structure this upcoming summer, the idea of paying him the max or anything close to it is an absolute non-starter at my end.
He simply doesn’t possess the tools (or display them on any type of consistent basis) to justify not only making him one of the highest paid players, but as a result, trusting him to be Option A on a contender.
Barnes is a nice player, and will probably get signed somewhere for big money after turning down a $64 million extension last summer.
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Let’s just hope that place isn’t Washington because the Wizards can’t afford their long-awaited tour of free agency to end with a player who looks like a star, but never plays like one. Huge No to Harrison Barnes.