Washington Wizards Complete Mock 2016 Off-season Version 3.0
By Osman Baig
In this Washington Wizards off-season and free agency mock for 2016, the team adds two stars – Dwight Howard and Chandler Parsons – to their core
In my Mock Offseason 1.0, the Washington Wizards addressed the Center position long-term by acquiring Hassan Whiteside as a max free agent.
In Version 2.0 I went the depth route, addressing the need for a third true “stretch” big and an ascending young wing player.
Now we’re going to have some fun. In version 3.0, Ernie Grunfeld pushes all his chips to the middle of the table.
Let’s recap where we are:
The Washington Wizards enter the 2016 offseason with only five players under contract and Bradley Beal as a restricted free agent.
Assuming those six roster spots are set, that leaves potentially nine roster spots open.
To fill those roster spots the Wizards have approximately $30 million in cap room. To get there, I’m making the following assumptions:
- Washington retains the current core and maintains their cap hold of approximately $14.2 million for Beal
- The Wizards will maintain Garrett Temple’s cap hold at $980,431
- $543,417 for five roster spots to get to minimum 12 for cap purposes
- Because Martell Webster was waived using the stretch provision, $830K of his salary counts towards the 2016 cap. That salary, however, does not occupy a roster spot.
So, that leaves the Washington Wizards with approximately $30 million in cap space to fill out their roster. Additionally, Washington will also have the room exception of $2,898,000.
A point of clarification: any player signed will slide into a minimum salary slot so the hit against the cap won’t be $1 for $1.
Here’s the current roster makeup:
Priority Needs – Star power, a wing scorer, backcourt depth, and a third big
Scenario 3: Go big or go home
The Washington Wizards have been in dire need of a jolt – some star power to bring attention back to this team. They need to remind the rest of the league that: yes, indeed, they do participate in the NBA and have a desire to do more than get a participation trophy.
John Wall is a good player and has become a perennial All-star but still has inefficiencies in his game that are holding him back from the “leap.”
Bradley Beal has been plagued by inconsistency and injuries and is a long way from being considered a star. The balance of the roster is comprised of role players (at various levels) and an unknown with potential in Kelly Oubre Jr.
I’m not going to drink the Kool-Aid and say the Wizards sign Kevin Durant to address the need for a star. That would be too easy for the purposes of this exercise and simply not realistic.
Similarly, with another top free agent like Al Horford, I just don’t see why he’d choose the Wizards over his current situation or his pick of numerous other free agent destinations.
With the options limited, let me introduce you to the Dwight Howard and Chandler Parsons package deal.
Move #1:
The Washington Wizards sign Dwight Howard to a four-year/$96.5 million deal with a team option after year three.
To facilitate taking on Howard’s contract and leaving room for other improvements in free agency, Washington executes this as a sign-and-trade with the Houston Rockets involving Marcin Gortat.
This is a huge risk by Washington and probably one that makes most of you who are reading this very uneasy.
I’ll acknowledge the negatives: Howard is coming off a down season, has some injury concerns, is a terrible free throw shooter (and would force us into watching hack-a-Howard for 82 regular season games), had issues with teammates at his last two stops, and seems to wilt under the burden of heavy expectations.
Entering his 13th season, it’s fair to wonder how much is left in the tank.
While I acknowledge all of this I also think that recency bias with Howard probably has him slightly underrated entering free agency. He’s still only 30-years-old and a closer look at the numbers, per-36 minutes, may not support the perceived decline people think they’re seeing.
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com
Howard’s points were down but his true-shooting percentage of 60.4% was slightly higher than his career average of 59.9% and the highest it was in his time in Houston.
The main difference, however, a drop in field goal attempts which points towards the chemistry issues and toxic situation that seemed to encompass the Houston team this past season.
Per 36, he received nearly three less attempts per game than Gortat. I’d be stunned if that were the case with a point guard who’s proven to elevate the play of those around him like John Wall.
In my opinion, playing with a point guard who won’t hesitate to get him the ball in position to score, playing in an environment that isn’t burdened with high expectations, and being out of a situation that frankly seemed counterproductive can be the recipe to revitalize Howard’s career.
Is that worth the financial risk that Washington would have to take on here?
I think the argument can be made to support that risk especially when in…
Move #2:
Howard brings along his former teammate Chandler Parsons in free agency.
Washington signs Chandler Parsons to a four-year/$80 million contract with the deal executed via a sign-and-trade for Otto Porter.
How does this fit under the cap?
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By executing the Howard trade as a sign-and-trade and moving Gortat to Houston as part of that deal, Washington is able to give Dwight Howard 4.5% annual raises which starts his year one salary at approximately $22.3 million, leaving them approximately $25 million in useable cap space.
By similarly moving Otto Porter to Dallas via sign-and-trade, the net change in space still leaves Washington with some wiggle room to improve the roster through free agency and allows them to start Parsons’ first year salary at $18.7 million with 4.5% annual raises.
Washington is now left with approximately $8.8 million in cap room when you add back in the minimum cap holds.
Why would I want to sign a wing coming off an injury who averaged just 13.7 points per game last season for Dallas?
"From Jan. 20 to March 14, there weren’t many players in the NBA more efficient than the 27-year-old Parsons. During that stretch he averaged 19.8 points per game on 52.4 percent shooting from the field and 47.8 percent from deep, joining names like Stephen Curry and Kawhi Leonard as two of the only players in the NBA with those percentages from the field. He added 6.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 1.0 steals in 34.9 minutes per game"
Of even more interest to me was this tidbit:
"Dallas took positive steps toward working to maximize Parsons’ impact within the flow of the offense, particularly as the season wore on and he spent more time playing the power forward position. In the 137 minutes Parsons and Dirk Nowitzki played the 4 and 5 spots, respectively, Dallas scored 1.341 points per possession with a 62.1 effective field goal percentage, per nbawowy.com. Parsons himself scored 1.45 points per possession in those situations with a blistering 75.0 effective field goal percentage. He scored 74 points on 40 field goal attempts."
If you can get comfortable with his recovery from injuries, Parsons might be the most logical free agent target for the Washington Wizards this summer.
Nicolas Batum would cost more as a player eligible for a max contract worth nearly 30% of the cap, Harrison Barnes is very much an enigma, and Ryan Anderson is strictly a stretch-four, offering limited positional flexibility and play making.
Parsons has the ability to play both forward positions and might fit the mold of a play-making stretch four in the minutes he plays there.
By going “all-in” on two players and trading out two players, Washington is left with little depth.
Backcourt depth and a third big are the priority needs at this point and
Move #3
is similar to what it has been in prior mock offseasons:
Washington signs Tomas Satoransky to a three-year/$17.5 million deal with a starting salary of approximately $5.6 million.
New coach Scott Brooks reportedly visited Satoransky in Spain last month, which is an indication of the team’s interest in signing him this summer.
Additionally at 6’7″, his ability to play behind both John Wall and Bradley Beal makes him an attractive economical addition to the roster.
Washington is nearly tapped out in terms of cap space but still has room for…
Move 4:
Washington signs Miles Plumlee to a two-year/$6 million contract.
There was rumored interest in Plumlee at the trade deadline and while that didn’t materialize then, it does now as he fills the needs for a young rim protector, is active on the glass, and can run the floor.
Just two years ago Plumlee averaged approximately eight points, eight rebounds, and one block per game for the Phoenix Suns in just 24 minutes per game. Given Dwight Howard’s recent injury history, having a young rim protector who can fill in on occasion is a priority.
Washington now is out of cap space.
In squeezing every cent of cap space imaginable to fit everyone under the cap, Washington had to also renounce their cap hold on Garrett Temple, which in turn generated approximately $400,000 in additional cap room.
Temple also will likely see offers that guarantee more playing time and money than what is promised to him in Washington.
We’re not done, though!
Move #5:
Using the room exception, Washington signs Alan Anderson to a one-year/$2.9 million contract.
Anderson didn’t make it on the court often for Washington last season but his practice prowess and leadership was often praised.
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In the limited time he was on the floor he also proved to be a productive player especially early on but naturally regressed as he was in-and-out of the lineup (and not on the floor with John Wall to end the season).
Can he be productive and more importantly consistently available over the course of an 82 game season?
That remains to be seen as Anderson will be entering his age-34 season.
The roster now stands at nine and the Washington Wizards are now left with little ammunition and three-to-five roster spots to fill.
Washington will have to look at the veteran minimum free agent market, camp invites, and last year’s second round pick Aaron White, who spent last season playing in Germany to fill out the roster.
Here are some wild guesses as to who can fill out these roster spots.
It’s important to note that Washington should have an advantage when it comes to signing priority undrafted free agents or attracting “vet minimum” free agents given the number of open roster spots they have and the potential for immediate playing time.
Agents likely will view Washington as a landing spot where a player may have the opportunity and playing time necessary to establish himself under a head coach who has a proven track record for player development.
Final Depth Chart
What I like about this scenario:
Washington gets some juice out of this roster, both on the court and in terms of public perception which, for a team that hasn’t won 50 games since 1979, matters.
For the Washington Wizards, it’s time to become consistently relevant in the NBA landscape. The roster posed in this mock offers Washington shooting, positional versatility, and rim protection.
I listed the depth chart above but the reality is this roster oozes flexibility. Parsons can play either forward position, Satoransky can play either guard position, Oubre Jr. can play either wing, Markieff Morris can be a small ball center, and Anderson can probably play minutes at the three positions.
This is a versatile group that can shoot the ball, play defense, and won’t be reliant on one player for production – a limiting factor in the past.
With some luck and development from the incumbent core, this team should be able to push a soon to be 32-yea-old LeBron James in the Eastern Conference.
What I don’t like about this scenario:
Health.
Chandler Parsons, Dwight Howard, and Alan Anderson all come with injury questions. We also didn’t fortify the backup shooting guard position, instead relying on Satoransky in a combo guard role.
Is Bradley Beal finally going to stay healthy? That’s a lot to ask for.
Dwight Howard is the biggest question mark of them all.
I think a closer look at the numbers showed that maybe he hasn’t declined as much as the perception is but how much is left in the tank going into his 13th season and does he really provide the upside to Marcin Gortat that merits taking on this type of financial risk?
Next: Complete Wizards Mock Offseason 1.0
These are all fair questions, but for a team that has historically pretty much played it safe in free agency, often bypassing it all together, maybe it’s time to push all their chips in.