Washington Wizards Complete Mock 2016 Off-season Version 5.0

The Washington Wizards have been looking to make a splash during this summer’s NBA Free Agency period, but what if they go the Portland route?

In my Mock Offseason 1.0, the Washington Wizards addressed the Center position long-term by acquiring Hassan Whiteside as a max free agent.

In Version 2.0 I went the depth route, addressing the need for a third true “stretch” big and an ascending young wing player.

In Version 3.0 I went hunting for big names who came with big risks.

In Version 4.0, I helped the Washington Wizards regain their defensive identity by adding two blockbuster defenders.

Now we’ll get to Version 5.0, or the final version – the Portland Plan.

In talking over various offseason strategies with people, a common proposal has come up: go the Portland route if things don’t shake out as the Wizards hope to land the top targets. What is the Portland plan, though?

The Trail Blazers were busy last summer.

Prior to the 2015 NBA Draft, the Blazers made waves trading by Nicolas Batum to the Charlotte Hornets in exchange for Gerald Henderson, Noah Vonleh, and a trade exception.

On draft night, the moves did not stop as Portland drafted Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and moved him to Brooklyn along with Steve Blake for Mason Plumlee.

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Then free agency hit and gone were LaMarcus Aldridge, Aaron Afflalo, Robin Lopez, and Wesley Matthews.

The Blazers tried to rebound by signing Enes Kanter to a multi-year max offer sheet but Oklahoma City ended up matching Portland’s deal.

Portland ended up pursuing less expensive younger free agents while maintaining cap room moving forward.

They signed Al-Farouq Aminu and Ed Davis in free agency and also traded a conditional second round pick for Maurice Harkless.

It was a brand new Blazers team – one of which little was expected.

Led by Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, the Blazers were one of the surprise teams of the 2015-16 NBA season and ended up the fifth seed in the Western Conference.

Acquired players, in particular Aminu and Plumee, became major contributors to the team. Thus the birth of the Portland Plan.

Whether it was by design or a tank job lead astray by an incumbent backcourt which combined to score 46 points per game, the Portland Plan emerged and the results were fairly impressive.

How would that fit in with what the Washington Wizards are trying to accomplish this summer?

Kevin Durant is now out of the equation and the topic deserves no further discussion.

Washington has reported interest in Al Horford, Nicolas Batum, and Ryan Anderson but they will be among many bidding for their services.

Is it possible for Washington to fill out the roster with young, ideally ascending free agents who are inexpensive (relatively speaking) while sufficiently addressing their needs?

Will it even be possible given the amount of money that will be available to spend this summer?

The Washington Wizards enter the 2016 offseason with only five players under contract and Bradley Beal as a restricted free agent.

Assuming those six roster spots are set, that leaves potentially nine roster spots open.

To fill those roster spots the Wizards have approximately $30 million in cap room. To get there, I’m making the following assumptions:

Washington retains the current core and maintains their cap hold of approximately $14.2 million for Beal
The Wizards will maintain Garrett Temple’s cap hold at $980,431
$543,417 for five roster spots to get to minimum 12 for cap purposes
Because Martell Webster was waived using the stretch provision, $830K of his salary counts towards the 2016 cap. That salary, however, does not occupy a roster spot.

In addition to $31 million in cap room, Washington will also have the room exception of $2,898,000.

A point of clarification: any player signed will slide into a minimum salary slot so the hit against the cap won’t be $1 for $1.

Here’s the current roster make-up:

Priority Needs– Rim protection, Wing defense (and shooting), Backcourt depth, Third big

I’ve removed “star player” because under this plan you’re not going to acquire one, although this is the organization’s greatest need.

Mock Offseason 5.0: The goal here is to find a player(s) who will outplay the contract they sign and will allow cap flexibility going forward.

Move #1:

The Washington Wizards sign Dwight Powell to a three-year/$33 million contract.

That is a pretty steep price for a relative unknown but the 24-year-old big man fits the Aminu mold – a player whose contract will initially raise eyebrows, but someone who is ascending and eventually could be considered a bargain.

Washington would not be paying Powell for what he has done in the NBA, but more for what they project him to do.

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Powell’s potential started to flash in last year’s Las Vegas Summer League as he averaged 18.8 points and 9.2 rebounds per game.

He started the season in decent fashion as well averaging 8.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per game in the month of November on 52.4 percent shooting from the field.

As the season wore on his minutes diminished.

That didn’t stop him from the occasionally flashing as he did when he scored 16 points and grabbed 7 rebounds in 30 minutes versus the Denver Nuggets in a late March game and more impressively 16 points and 9 rebounds in 28 minutes versus Oklahoma City in Game 5 of their first round matchup in the Western Conference playoffs.

At 6’11″, Dwight Powell can give Washington much-needed versatility and an interchangeable player at the four and five position behind Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat.

He’s an athletic player who looks ready for a consistent role in an NBA rotation. He also has worked on his 3-point shot, shooting 26.5 percent from beyond the arc in Summer League last year (although he only went 2-16 during the regular season).

That’s a far cry from what would be needed to be classified as a stretch-4 but it would be worth seeing if he can continue to develop in that area.

While he would provide Washington with another above the rim finisher, he doesn’t necessarily add the rim protection element that would still be needed.

Move #2:

What’s a Portland Plan without a Portland player? Washington signs Allen Crabbe to a three-year/$39 million contract.

Crabbe isn’t a go-to scorer and may slip into a 3-and-D role, but he provides versatility and another knockdown shooter to the roster.

Per NBA.com, Allen Crabbe shot 46.2 percent from the 3-point line and 66.7 percent from 2-point territory when the closest defender was within 4-6 feet of him.

Putting Allen Crabbe in a lineup alongside John Wall sounds right in his wheelhouse.

What he won’t give the Washington Wizards is a player who can create for himself.

Of his field goal attempts last season, 86.3 percent came with one dribble or less. Given his age – he’s just 24 – and his ability to step into many roles, the positives outweigh the negatives.

In eight starts as a starting shooting guard, Crabbe averaged 15.9 points on 43.6 percent shooting from the field and 39.1 percent from beyond the arc for Portland last season.

With Bradley Beal’s injury history, Crabbe is an ideal target for Washington to shuffle between the two and three while being capable of stepping in and starting at either if necessary.

John Wall
Bradley Beal, Allen Crabbe
Otto Porter, Kelly Oubre
Markieff Morris, Dwight Powell
Marcin Gortat

Priority Needs– Rim protection, Wing defense (and shooting), Backcourt depth, Third big

Backcourt depth and rim protection are the priority needs at this point.

Move #3:

Washington signs Ty Lawson to a one-year/$5 million contract.

I’ve had Tomas Satoransky in this spot in my prior four mock offseasons.

I still believe that to be the case as Scott Brooks‘ reported visit to Satoransky is a strong indication of the team’s interest in signing him this summer, however, I wanted to present a fallback scenario in case negotiations with his camp don’t result in a deal.

Lawson is at a crossroads in his career.

A borderline All-Star caliber player at his best in Denver, Lawson is now looking at potentially his fourth team in a year’s time. I went with Lawson for a few reasons at this spot:

He has a history of sharing the backcourt with another point guard as he did with Andre Miller in Denver
As a player likely looking to rebuild his value around the league, a one-year deal makes the most sense for him and the Washington Wizards in this scenario
ONE LOCAL PLAYER IS COMING HOME, PERIOD!

After signing Dwight Powell, Allen Crabbe, and Dwight Powell, Washington is left with approximately $5.5 million in cap space.

Priority Needs– Rim protection, Wing defense (and shooting), Backcourt depth, Third big

Move #4:

Washington signs Miles Plumlee two-year/$10 million contract.

There was rumored interest in Plumlee at the trade deadline, and while that didn’t materialize then, it does now as Plumlee fills the needs for a young rim protector, is active on the glass, can run the floor, and can play above the rim.

Just two years ago, Plumlee averaged approximately 8 points, 8 rebounds, and one block per game for the Phoenix Suns in just 24 minutes per game.

I leaned towards Miles Plumlee over Dewayne Dedmon in this scenario given Plumlee’s starting experience of 121 games.

I also figured if I’m following the Portland Plan we should have our own Plumlee too, right?

Move #5:

Washington re-signs Garrett Temple using their Bird Rights to a two-year/$5 million contract.

Temple isn’t a great player by any stretch of the imagination and has been forced into a role that probably exceeds his skill-set but that doesn’t mean he’s not a benefit to this roster or the locker room.

Limited by a lack of cap space, Bird Rights gives Washington the ability to re-sign a player they otherwise may have been unable to given that they’ve exhausted their cap room.

We’re not done though!

Move #6:

Using the room exception, Washington signs Thomas Robinson to one-year/$2.9 million contract.

Robinson has had a difficult introduction to the NBA having played for five teams in his four NBA seasons.

He has shown an ability to rebound with a Per-36 average of 14.1 last season and provides the athleticism necessary to run the floor.

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Taking a page from the Portland Plan, Robinson represents ideal value, adding potential as a free agent who hasn’t lived up to the lofty expectations associated with being the fifth overall selection, but can add a skill-set and help in the right scenario.

The roster now stands at 12 and the Washington Wizards are left with little ammunition and 2-3 roster spots to fill.

Washington will likely look to summer league invites and veteran training camp invites to fill out the balance of their roster.

Those who I anticipate having a decent chance at the roster are:

Aaron White, last year’s second round selection
Sheldon McClellan, an undrafted rookie free agent from the University of Miami who received a partially guaranteed deal to sign with Washington
Jaleel Roberts, a summer league and training camp invite from last summer who is back with Washington as they prepare for the Las Vegas Summer League.

Final depth chart

John Wall, Ty Lawson, Garrett Temple
Bradley Beal, Allen Crabbe, Sheldon McClellan
Otto Porter, Kelly Oubre, Aaron White
Markieff Morris, Dwight Powell, Thomas Robinson
Marcin Gortat, Miles Plumlee, Jaleel Roberts

What I like about this scenario:

Washington adds versatility and athleticism to the roster.

Dwight Powell and Allen Crabbe, the two primary free agent additions under this scenario, are capable of playing multiple positions and bring some fresh legs to the floor.

Crabbe also brings another known-down shooter to the roster and reinforces depth on both wings, perhaps even challenging for a starting small forward role.

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Ty Lawson is the wild card here.

He was a borderline All-Star just a few seasons ago and could provide relief as Wall recovers from knee surgery.

If Lawson can find his game, he’s a steal. It’s a low-risk, high-reward situation.

The Portland Plan also leaves open the possibility for Washington to be active again in the summer of 2017.

Washington would be slightly above the projected salary cap of $110 million in 2017 under this scenario after Beal’s cap hold turns into his actual salary.

By prioritizing young players with the potential to continue to ascend and a subsequent cap jump coming in the summer of ’17, the contracts of the players on this roster may be very moveable or attractive on the market as salaries continue to spike.

Washington has to also move beyond the idea of free agency and clearing the decks cap-wise as the only way to add a star may be through a trade.

With only five players under contract, the Washington Wizards don’t have the ammunition necessary to make a blockbuster trade if a star caliber player was to go on the block today. Depending on how the young talent on this proposed roster develops, they may have that going forward.

Powell, Crabbe and the current core have room to grow and as the cap continues to increase, their deals might turn into attractive bargains to teams looking to reset.

This roster also offers a lot of positional versatility, so trading a starter or high level reserve at one position won’t necessarily leave a gaping hole on the roster.

What I don’t like about this scenario:

Star power, or lack thereof.

This scenario makes Washington a better team, but does it provide the jolt necessary to keep up with other teams in the Eastern Conference who are looking to make their own improvements?

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From a fan’s perspective, after forming and following a summer plan intended for Kevin Durant for two years, will two relatively unknowns (to the casual fan) like Dwight Powell and Allen Crabbe be enough to move the needle?

Development will also play a huge role in how this roster projects.

If Powell, in particular, does not make the leap I’m anticipating, Washington will have also invested heavily into a fringe rotational player who might end up being nothing more than a high energy fourth big rather than a consistent 25-30 minute per game third big.

This team also is a little thin at the small forward position, meaning Washington will not only have to hope that Kelly Oubre is ready to play this season, but he’ll be relied upon for a consistent role in the rotation.

Next: Wizards Complete Mock Offseason 4.0

The Portland Plan isn’t as flashy as signing a premier free agent, but in terms of depth and building a successful roster, it could potentially be the way to go.