Wiz of Awes
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Washington Wizards: How The Team Might Be Better Than Expected

By Osman Baig

Dec 18, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal (3) and Wizards guard John Wall (2) celebrate with fans while leaving the court after their game against the LA Clippers at Verizon Center. The Wizards won 117-110. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 18, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal (3) and Wizards guard John Wall (2) celebrate with fans while leaving the court after their game against the LA Clippers at Verizon Center. The Wizards won 117-110. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports /
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Washington Wizards had a rough start to the 2016-17 NBA season, but their recent growth has caused one skeptical writer to change his opinion on the team.

I was wrong – maybe.

I had, in essence, called time of death on this Washington Wizards team and the current nucleus several weeks ago. I believed the premise behind my argument to be sound.

Despite John Wall, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter playing at career-best levels, the Wizards were 6-11 at the end of November.

Hamstrung by the salary cap implication of moves made this past summer, I did not see an out or a way for this team to improve enough to be relevant as-is or improve going forward without wholesale changes.

I made the suggestion to trade John Wall and embrace the tank.

This still may prove out to be the best course of action, but something occurred along the way – the Washington Wizards began to climb out of the abyss and show signs of life.

Led by their backcourt, Washington has gone 7-4 in December with the duo raising their level of play to heights not yet seen.

In the month of December (11 games played):

  • John Wall – 25.2 points, 10.1 assists, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.8 steals per game on 49.3% shooting from the field and 7.4 FTA per game
  • Bradley Beal – 24 points and 4 assists on 47.1% shooting from the field, 40.7% shooting from 3-point range, and 6 FTA per game

Averaging nearly 50 points per game in the month of December, the Washington Wizards are riding the coattails of this backcourt that finally is living up the potential and hype that has surrounded them since Beal’s arrival in 2012.

The House of Guards may finally be proving worthy of the name and the Wizards’ fortunes have turned as a result.

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It doesn’t stop there, though.

A bench that was putrid to start the season has at least begun to contribute.

Trey Burke has found his footing in a scoring role rather than trying to initiate the offense.

Kelly Oubre Jr, prior to a concussion-scare versus the Detroit Pistons, was in the midst of the best basketball of his career, including a career-high 19 point effort versus the Milwaukee Bucks and a solid 15 point and 7 rebound effort in his lone start of the season versus the Charlotte Hornets.

Jason Smith has found his midrange touch in December and Marcus Thornton is, well, Marcus Thornton but at least has turned his shooting around in the month of December.

Roles on the surface seem more defined and players are playing to their strengths rather than playing beyond their skill-set, which is a credit to Scott Brooks.

Where does that leave the Washington Wizards and what is the outlook for this team in the present and in the future? That’s the unknown, and just as I may have jumped the gun in calling time of death on this season and team, it may be too soon to say all is well and the team is cleared for takeoff.

It still could be that embracing the tank is the best course of action in terms of a long-term outlook, but given the maturation we’ve seen from the backcourt, the quality of play from the starting five (Net Rating of 9.6 in 450 minutes per NBA.com), and the incremental steps taken by the bench, would it be fair to pull the rug out from underneath Brooks’ 28 games into his first season in Washington?

Hasn’t his track record of development in Oklahoma City and what we’ve seen from this team now versus where they started earned him more time to figure out what he has to work with and how far he can push this roster?

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It’s difficult to argue against that, but let’s at least then look forward with our eyes wide open.

For as good as the backcourt is playing, is this level of play sustainable?

Wall was Eastern Conference Player of the month in December last year.

Although he earned a visit to his third consecutive All-Star game, he was not able to maintain the level of play he showed in that month.

Some of that was probably attributed to injuries, but the question therein lies: will Wall be able to sustain this level of play given the minutes and burden he’s carrying?

This has been the best stretch of basketball Beal has played in his entire career, but we all know the issue: injuries.

Is he over the injury bug, and if he does miss some time due to an unforeseen circumstance, how quickly can he regain this level of play?

Do the Wizards have the depth to withstand any significant injuries?

Their biggest free agent acquisition, Ian Mahinmi, still has played just one game.

With Mahinmi reportedly set to be out of action for at least six weeks following PRP treatment on his knees, it would be optimistic to have any expectations for him in the foreseeable future.

Will Marcin Gortat, who is is averaging 35.8 minutes per game – nearly 6 minutes per game more than last season – be able to keep up this pace?

Going on 33, that is a tall task, but his presence as the only active rim protector on the roster would make any multiple game absence from him a tall hurdle to overcome for this team.

For as well as Washington has played of late, they are still just 13-15 overall and 3-9 on the road, having played 4 more homes games than road games this year.

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Will they be able to improve enough on the road or will their play away from the Verizon Center derail their momentum as the schedule starts to shift?

Lastly, even if the team continues on their current trajectory, what is their ultimate upside?

From 2013 to 2015, the Washington Wizards had the benefit of a young backcourt with an eye towards future cap space.

There was a path to contention that existed.

Unfortunately, the backcourt stalled (largely due to injuries), the team regressed and a head coaching change had to be made leading into their cap space off-season.

Washington has used all of their cap space without acquiring a game-changing talent.

General Managers can always maneuver to get back under the cap, but in using Mahinmi’s contract as an example, teams may be very hesitant to take on the balance of a $64 million contract until he returns to the floor and can show he’s healthy.

There’s also Porter, who is a restricted free agent this summer and could demand a max contract in the off-season.

A significant amount of payroll is already in place for next season before considering Porter’s contract.  Washington will have some maneuvering to do to have cap flexibility going forward, but the reality is they may have to make difficult decisions along the way.

Next: Wizards Should Consider Trading John Wall and Tanking

There are questions – significant ones – that still have to be answered. But based on what we’ve seen as of late, it may be more wise to look back when the team gets to April or May (come on guys, I’m not going to say June), and make a decision on the future at that point.

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