What Does the Future Hold for the Washington Wizards?

Washington Wizards fans, players, and coaches clearly weren’t happy to lose in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. But, they are aware of the improvements the team made this season, and the possible improvements coming in the near future. Still, there are doubters among us, including one writer at Bleacher Report. Teams like the Nuggets and Lakers are projected to show significant improvement, entering the mid-to-upper 40’s range in wins. The Wizards, on the other hand, did not fair well. Here’s why this belief is wrong.

Recently, Adam Fromal from Bleacher Report published an article predicting every NBA team’s record for the next five seasons. In the article, the Wizards are projected to regress by 2-3 wins each year, and fall below .500 in the 2021-22 season with a record of 40-42.

Here are the season projections:

2017-18 Projected Record: 48-34

2018-19 Projected Record: 46-36

2019-20 Projected Record: 43-39

2020-21 Projected Record: 42-40

2021-22 Projected Record: 40-42

An expected drop off in John Wall‘s play is a large reason for the prediction:

"“The former Kentucky standout will turn 27 before the start of the 2017-18 season, which means he’ll be in his 30’s by the end of our five-year forecast. Regression should be planned for, even if the Wizards don’t currently have many means with which they can counteract it,” said Fromal."

While this is the inevitable, it does not doom the future outlook of the team. In fact, it does quite the opposite.

John Wall is already a perennial All-Star & first time All-NBA talent at the age of 26. He’s a 20 & 10 player who’s just entering his prime. While his athleticism is bound to decline with age like any player, that doesn’t mean Wall will lose his elite speed, vertical, and strength in this next five years.

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Wall has room to improve his skills in other facets to allow his game to age well. His jump shot has continued to improve as his career has progressed, specially his mid-range pull up. But he remains a low 30% three-point shooter. If he can become a 35-40% shooter from beyond the arc in the next five years, he won’t have to rely on his ability to get to the basket as much.

The main element of Wall’s game that will age well is his passing ability. Wall is one of the premier passers in our game, averaging over 10 APG the last several seasons. His court vision is up there with LeBron James and Chris Paul for best in the league, and arguably nobody is better at finding open shooters. Wall has the passing gift like few do, and his drive-and-kick ability will carry with him into his 30’s.

The biggest reason why the Wizards will show improvement, rather than regression, in the next five years isn’t John Wall, though. It’s Bradley Beal and Otto Porter. Assuming Porter is signed to the 5-year max this summer, both players will be in D.C for the next five seasons. Both will be just 24 years old at the start of next season.

Beal is already an All-Star talent, and was arguably snubbed this year by Carmelo Anthony as Kevin Love’s replacement. Beal is coming off a career season in which he averaged 23.1 PPG, 3.5 APG, 48.2% FG, & 82.5% FT in 77 games. If he can fulfill his potential in the next five years, he’ll live up to the lofty Ray Allen comparisons he received coming out of college and then some.

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While his ceiling is lower, Otto Porter is a solid third option capable of becoming a star in this league. Porter has always been a jack-of-all trades type player, capable of doing everything well but not exceptional.

This past season, he became an elite three-point shooter, hitting at a clip of 43.4%, good for 5th in the league. If Porter can improve his consistency on both offense and defense, the talent is there for a championship-caliber big three.

Even if Porter never reaches his full potential, the Wizards have a dynamic duo in Wall and Beal likely to be the best backcourt in the league soon, if not already. There’s also Markieff Morris, arguably the wizards best defensive player whose just 27 years old and on an affordable contract.

Scott Brooks is locked up for the foreseeable future, and he proved to be a steady locker room voice that meshed perfectly with the wizards in his first season. What happens when you combine youth, talent, and elite coaching?

Next: Wizards 2017 Season Review: Markieff Morris

You get improvement, not regression. If the Wizards can improve their bench and avoid significant injuries, there’s no reason they shouldn’t continue to hover around 50 wins in the next five seasons.

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