NBA Playoffs 2015: Washington Wizards Season Review and Playoff Prediction
By Osman Baig
For the second consecutive year, the Washington Wizards will open the playoffs on the road in Toronto.
The Wizards finished the 2014-2015 regular season at 46-36, their best record since 1979. When you get past how terribly sad that is, you would think that the take away from this season would be positive.
The problem is this; the Wizards started the season very strongly (against a weak schedule) but for three plus months now have been playing sub .500 basketball. That’s not a small sample size. All the good will and positive momentum that was created the first half of the season is gone.
What went wrong?
Before the season started I laid out four things the Washington Wizards had to do to take that next step towards being a NBA Championship contender. They were: improve the coaching (focusing on the offense), protect home-court, continued growth from John Wall and Bradley Beal, and finding an X factor.
How did they fare?
Coaching
The offense was abysmal this year.
The Washington Wizards ranked 17th in the NBA at 98.5 PPG, 19th in Offensive Efficiency, 16th in Pace, 26th in 3-pointers made per game, and 22nd in free throws attempted per game. THIS. IS. NOT. GOOD.
The team routinely struggled to score in four quarters, did not create spacing on offense for their young guards, and played an archaic style of back to the basket basketball using two post players “complimented” by a system which relied heavily on mid-range jumpshots, or “take what they give you”.
Neither of these things which the Wizards offense regularly defaulted to match the strengths of their core players and the results spoke for themselves. Verdict – Mission Not Accomplished
Home Court Player
The Washington Wizards did improve here. The increased their 22 home win total to 29 games.
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The Wizards players fell one game short their stated goal of 30 home wins. Unfortunately they did not maintain their pace on the road, going from 21-20 on the road last season to 17-24 this season.
The Road Warrior Wizards who went 5-1 on the road in last year’s postseason seem far gone (likely to Houston) but nonetheless, they did improve at home.
Verdict – Mission Accomplished
Growth of the Backcourt
This season started with a proclamation from Bradley Beal that he and John Wall were the best backcourt in the NBA. This did not play out.
John Wall had a career year, averaging a career high ten assists per game. He was the Washington Wizards’ best player this season and maintained a high level of play throughout most of the season, but he undeniably slowed down after the all-start break (seemingly to fatigue and injuries).
I would still argue (and Paul Pierce would too) that there’s another level he can reach but for this season he held his side of the bargain. Bradley Beal unfortunately did not.
Slice it any way you want, he’s had an up and down season defined by a lack of aggression, poor shot selection, and injuries. Coming off last season’s breakout performance in the playoffs, the results were disappointing.
Mission Not Accomplished.
The X-Factor
An “X” factor had to emerge.
I listed three players that I thought might become X Factors; Kevin Seraphin, Otto Porter, and Glen Rice Jr.
Glen Rice Jr. did not make it far into the season after his run-in with Randy Wittman. Otto Porter has been yo-yo’d in and out of the lineup and often was played at the two guard position where he’s not natural fit. Kevin Seraphin is who he’s always been.
He had some decent stretches but the on-court mental lapses and lack of passing acumen out of the post make him a tough play versus quality frontcourts.
Rasual Butler was a surprise early in the season and for a time was one of the best 3-point shooters in the NBA, but his shooting came crashing back down to Earth after the calendar his 2015. Given Rasual’s age, 35, that should not have been a surprise to the coaching staff.
Mission Not Accomplished
Given that three of the four stated steps were NOT met, you can see why the Wizards, one of the older teams in the NBA, struggled down the stretch this season. This also could explain why the sense of optimism that surrounded this team over the summer now seems to be long gone. On to my prediction
– Toronto Raptors in 5 games (75% odds)
– Washington Wizards in 6 games (25% odds)
What’s this you say, two picks? Well you’re right.
I’m laying out the two scenarios I think can occur and how I weight the probability of each.
If Washington does not steal one of the first two games in Toronto, it’s a wrap. That will be five straight losses to the Raptors this year and eight of nine overall.
Doubt will undoubtedly creep into the minds of the Washington Wizards and their confidence in each other and their coaches will be shot.
If the Wizards win one of the first two in Toronto all bets are off. #dcRising will start to trend again and the team’s confidence will quickly soar.
A few more thoughts on the series:
– The Wizards’ “X” factor will be Ramon Sessions.
Otto Porter seems like the natural player to fit that role but he’s been juggled in and out of the lineup so often, it’s hard to imagine that changing when the season is on the line.
When Toronto puts out a lineup with Kyle Lowry, Lou Williams, and DeMar Derozan, the Wizards should be able to counter with a lineup of Ramon Sessions, John Wall, and Bradley Beal.
If the Wizards can find a way to get Lou Williams covering John Wall, that can be a major advantage for the Wizards. To do so another backcourt option has to emerge and the best bet it Ramon Sessions.
– Trevor Ariza will be sorely missed this series.
He would have been the designated matchup for DeMar Derozan; who has been a bad matchup for Washington this season. DeRozan has averaged 21 PPG and more importantly has reached the FT line 10 times per game in his matchup versus Washington.
Will the Wizards be able to guard him without fouling him? It’s a tall task to ask Paul Pierce to run with him and Otto, given lack the experience. If the Wizards can keep him fresh and out of foul trouble for the first three quarters, John Wall might be the best matchup defensively against DeMar DeRozan. Wall has the lateral quickness to stay in front of him and could prove to be a bothersome matchup for him.
The Washington Wizards played the second half of the season with the sense of urgency and energy level of a corpse.
They knew their playoff position was safe and shortchanged themselves of an opportunity to play as a higher seed with home-court advantage. But what’s done is done! We’re here now and it is time for the NBA Playoffs!
It’s time to find out if the issue was effort, as Randy Wittman seemed to insinuate time and time again in his must see post-game pressers, or is the issue talent both at the roster and coaching levels? It’s put up or shut up time!
This team rose to the occasion as heavy underdogs versus Chicago last year and it’s time to do the same this year. Will the Washington Wizards plateau as a mid-level playoff team or is there more to this team than the second half of the season indicated.
We’ll find out soon!